Hagos Gebrhiwet ran 12:36.73 for 5000m in May. You know what Jakob did to him at the finals in Paris? Casually Jogged around him in the final 200 meters and beat him by 2 seconds. You're telling me the 7:17.55 3K guy couldn't run 12.5 laps at 60s? His 3k avg laps are 58.34s. When Gebrselassie ran 12:39.36 for 5000m, his 3000m PB was 7:25.09 (his 3000m average for 5K was 7:35.62) a 10-second differential of Pace between 3000m and 5000m. Same with many Greats
Chris Solinsky - 3000m (7:34.32) / 5000m (12:55.53) = 7:45.32 3000m Pace
Just three examples and all are within the 10-second range. Jakob would only need 12.45-second range.
As for the 10K, while it is largely unknown just because his elite speed is limited to 1500m/5000m. If he breaks 12:30 in the 5K, without a doubt he'd atleast be able to go under 26:30 (Low-balling). At the Olympics he trashed multiple Sub 27 guys and beat Biniam Mehary. The 17 year old who ran 26:37 for the 10,000m in Spain in June. As bad as he looked running 27:27 in Copenhagen, he was likely tired from having to run 3:30 1500m less than 48 hours before + He had to run after the 27:27 to finish 13.1 miles. Give him 3 months of training and he'd easily drop Sub 26:40 in the 10K. Give him another year and the WR is his. If Chris Solinsky can break 27, Jakob can go below 26:30. Enough said.
That's exactly right. Renato Canova himself in the thread last week said he thinks Jakob could run 12:30 and and around 26:00-26:05.
What anyone "could" do means nothing until it is done.
It was a rhetorical question but you aren't smart enough to see that. He is nowhere near the wr and the world's best times over what some claim here is his "best" distance.
You are - and you always will be - too stupid to search and find such information.
When trying, you ALWAYS fail. You would also fail to give correctly Ingebrigtsen's 5000m PB.
That's exactly right. Renato Canova himself in the thread last week said he thinks Jakob could run 12:30 and and around 26:00-26:05.
What anyone "could" do means nothing until it is done.
Of course not. I'm not going to speak for you, but you are coming off as though he CAN'T do it vs. HASN'T done it yet. That's all. Maybe he can, maybe he can't. But he clearly has the ability if he attempted and trained specifically to do so.
I'm done doubting his ability to beat the 5000 WR. I find the claims that he could go sub 12:30 unrealistic, though.
But does he actually stand a chance at the 10000 WR? No current athlete has got closer than 20".
He weights aprox. 15 kg more than Chep and 20 more than Kiplimo/Aregawi/Barega.
Considering he would have to run the last 5000 alone, isn't his morphology (1'87/75 kg) too "big" for wind resistance, heat dissipation...
...and carrying these 74/75 kg every stride?
For instance, Joshua is pretty tall for a distance runner (1.83) but below 60 kg, so he benefits from stride length without the "big" (again, for a distance runner) frame.
Kejelcha is barely his same height weighting at least 15 kg less.
TL;DR: Jakob's frame could be too big for 10000 & up distances.
Hagos Gebrhiwet ran 12:36.73 for 5000m in May. You know what Jakob did to him at the finals in Paris? Casually Jogged around him in the final 200 meters and beat him by 2 seconds. You're telling me the 7:17.55 3K guy couldn't run 12.5 laps at 60s? His 3k avg laps are 58.34s. When Gebrselassie ran 12:39.36 for 5000m, his 3000m PB was 7:25.09 (his 3000m average for 5K was 7:35.62) a 10-second differential of Pace between 3000m and 5000m. Same with many Greats
Chris Solinsky - 3000m (7:34.32) / 5000m (12:55.53) = 7:45.32 3000m Pace
Just three examples and all are within the 10-second range. Jakob would only need 12.45-second range.
As for the 10K, while it is largely unknown just because his elite speed is limited to 1500m/5000m. If he breaks 12:30 in the 5K, without a doubt he'd atleast be able to go under 26:30 (Low-balling). At the Olympics he trashed multiple Sub 27 guys and beat Biniam Mehary. The 17 year old who ran 26:37 for the 10,000m in Spain in June. As bad as he looked running 27:27 in Copenhagen, he was likely tired from having to run 3:30 1500m less than 48 hours before + He had to run after the 27:27 to finish 13.1 miles. Give him 3 months of training and he'd easily drop Sub 26:40 in the 10K. Give him another year and the WR is his. If Chris Solinsky can break 27, Jakob can go below 26:30. Enough said.
Using the 3k as a measure for 5k potential is not realistic. It is only a little over half the distance. It would be similar to saying what you would think would be the predictable 1500 time of an 800 runner. There isn't a consistent ratio when these distances are nearly doubled. They are different events. Ingebrigtsen won't show what he is really capable of over the 5k until he goes for time over the distance. A tactical championship race isn't that measure. El G was capable of beating the best in a 5k championship race, as he did in Athens, but he wasn't a true exponent of that distance.
The greatest 5k/10k runners mentioned above were not 1500 specialists, as Ingebrigtsen is. He is faster over the shorter distance but his peak appears to be the 2k-3k. So far he hasn't shown the endurance of the best 5k runners, who were also 10k exponents. Again, there isn't anything that Ingebrigtsen has so far done to show he has the endurance that extends to excelling over 10k. His HM is not a great recommendation.
What anyone "could" do means nothing until it is done.
Of course not. I'm not going to speak for you, but you are coming off as though he CAN'T do it vs. HASN'T done it yet. That's all. Maybe he can, maybe he can't. But he clearly has the ability if he attempted and trained specifically to do so.
That is the point I don't agree has been shown. He doesn't "clearly have the ability". He may, but nothing so far demonstrates it. That is the nature of sport. Hypothetically anything is possible but it means nothing until it is achieved.
That's exactly right. Renato Canova himself in the thread last week said he thinks Jakob could run 12:30 and and around 26:00-26:05.
I have the utmost respect for a legend like Renato.
But he always used that projection from 5000 to 10000 for 5000/10000 focused athletes.
I believe JI will keep focusing his training around the 1500 for Worlds, maybe aiming for the first 3:25 and the mile WR this season.
I don't know if he will succeed, but possibly he shifts his training slightly towards speed once the 2 miles and 3K WR are already in his pocket.
His longest distance shooting for time (and not just the win) would be a mile.
I still believe he COULD get the 5000 WR out of sheer talent and many years of aerobic work making him a cardio monster.
Sure he will still be the favorite in a 5000 race, but I dunno if he can be a legit WR threat at 1500/mile and 5000 convergently.
I'm afraid that, as young as he is, if he doesn't get these WR the next season, he will start chasing them on borrowed time. Just take a look at the ages of the WR holders (Hagos is a dop... outlier).
That's exactly right. Renato Canova himself in the thread last week said he thinks Jakob could run 12:30 and and around 26:00-26:05.
I have the utmost respect for a legend like Renato.
But he always used that projection from 5000 to 10000 for 5000/10000 focused athletes.
I believe JI will keep focusing his training around the 1500 for Worlds, maybe aiming for the first 3:25 and the mile WR this season.
I don't know if he will succeed, but possibly he shifts his training slightly towards speed once the 2 miles and 3K WR are already in his pocket.
His longest distance shooting for time (and not just the win) would be a mile.
I still believe he COULD get the 5000 WR out of sheer talent and many years of aerobic work making him a cardio monster.
Sure he will still be the favorite in a 5000 race, but I dunno if he can be a legit WR threat at 1500/mile and 5000 convergently.
I'm afraid that, as young as he is, if he doesn't get these WR the next season, he will start chasing them on borrowed time. Just take a look at the ages of the WR holders (Hagos is a dop... outlier).
I think the 7:17 3000m and 7:54 full 2 miles are plenty enough to project to a 5000 WR. I'm not sure when he will try it but he will. The 10,000 I'm not sure. We will see. Nobody on this forum thought he was ever getting any of the WR's he has and yet here we are.
Of course not. I'm not going to speak for you, but you are coming off as though he CAN'T do it vs. HASN'T done it yet. That's all. Maybe he can, maybe he can't. But he clearly has the ability if he attempted and trained specifically to do so.
That is the point I don't agree has been shown. He doesn't "clearly have the ability". He may, but nothing so far demonstrates it. That is the nature of sport. Hypothetically anything is possible but it means nothing until it is achieved.
How do you rank his chances to get the 5000m WR within the next two years?
Hagos Gebrhiwet ran 12:36.73 for 5000m in May. You know what Jakob did to him at the finals in Paris? Casually Jogged around him in the final 200 meters and beat him by 2 seconds. You're telling me the 7:17.55 3K guy couldn't run 12.5 laps at 60s? His 3k avg laps are 58.34s. When Gebrselassie ran 12:39.36 for 5000m, his 3000m PB was 7:25.09 (his 3000m average for 5K was 7:35.62) a 10-second differential of Pace between 3000m and 5000m. Same with many Greats
Chris Solinsky - 3000m (7:34.32) / 5000m (12:55.53) = 7:45.32 3000m Pace
Just three examples and all are within the 10-second range. Jakob would only need 12.45-second range.
As for the 10K, while it is largely unknown just because his elite speed is limited to 1500m/5000m. If he breaks 12:30 in the 5K, without a doubt he'd atleast be able to go under 26:30 (Low-balling). At the Olympics he trashed multiple Sub 27 guys and beat Biniam Mehary. The 17 year old who ran 26:37 for the 10,000m in Spain in June. As bad as he looked running 27:27 in Copenhagen, he was likely tired from having to run 3:30 1500m less than 48 hours before + He had to run after the 27:27 to finish 13.1 miles. Give him 3 months of training and he'd easily drop Sub 26:40 in the 10K. Give him another year and the WR is his. If Chris Solinsky can break 27, Jakob can go below 26:30. Enough said.
Using the 3k as a measure for 5k potential is not realistic. It is only a little over half the distance. It would be similar to saying what you would think would be the predictable 1500 time of an 800 runner. There isn't a consistent ratio when these distances are nearly doubled. They are different events. Ingebrigtsen won't show what he is really capable of over the 5k until he goes for time over the distance. A tactical championship race isn't that measure. El G was capable of beating the best in a 5k championship race, as he did in Athens, but he wasn't a true exponent of that distance.
The greatest 5k/10k runners mentioned above were not 1500 specialists, as Ingebrigtsen is. He is faster over the shorter distance but his peak appears to be the 2k-3k. So far he hasn't shown the endurance of the best 5k runners, who were also 10k exponents. Again, there isn't anything that Ingebrigtsen has so far done to show he has the endurance that extends to excelling over 10k. His HM is not a great recommendation.
1500m is 87.5% longer than 800m
5000m is 66.7% longer than 3000m
The longer the distances, they get relatively closer to each other.
You have argued for pages how distinct the 400m and the 800m are.
In 7:17.55 and 7:54.10 (5000m is 55.3% longer than 2 Miles) form, the Olympic and two times World champion Ingebrigtsen for sure can run faster than 12:48.45.
Not sure if he can break 12:35.36. I'm sceptical, but we have to wait.
Hagos Gebrhiwet ran 12:36.73 for 5000m in May. You know what Jakob did to him at the finals in Paris? Casually Jogged around him in the final 200 meters and beat him by 2 seconds. You're telling me the 7:17.55 3K guy couldn't run 12.5 laps at 60s? His 3k avg laps are 58.34s. When Gebrselassie ran 12:39.36 for 5000m, his 3000m PB was 7:25.09 (his 3000m average for 5K was 7:35.62) a 10-second differential of Pace between 3000m and 5000m. Same with many Greats
Chris Solinsky - 3000m (7:34.32) / 5000m (12:55.53) = 7:45.32 3000m Pace
Just three examples and all are within the 10-second range. Jakob would only need 12.45-second range.
As for the 10K, while it is largely unknown just because his elite speed is limited to 1500m/5000m. If he breaks 12:30 in the 5K, without a doubt he'd atleast be able to go under 26:30 (Low-balling). At the Olympics he trashed multiple Sub 27 guys and beat Biniam Mehary. The 17 year old who ran 26:37 for the 10,000m in Spain in June. As bad as he looked running 27:27 in Copenhagen, he was likely tired from having to run 3:30 1500m less than 48 hours before + He had to run after the 27:27 to finish 13.1 miles. Give him 3 months of training and he'd easily drop Sub 26:40 in the 10K. Give him another year and the WR is his. If Chris Solinsky can break 27, Jakob can go below 26:30. Enough said.
The greatest 5k/10k runners mentioned above were not 1500 specialists, as Ingebrigtsen is. He is faster over the shorter distance but his peak appears to be the 2k-3k. So far he hasn't shown the endurance of the best 5k runners, who were also 10k exponents. Again, there isn't anything that Ingebrigtsen has so far done to show he has the endurance that extends to excelling over 10k. His HM is not a great recommendation.
5000m WR holders who were not close to that level in the 10000m:
Lehtinen, Mäki, Pirie, Keino, Quax, Moorcroft, Aouita, Kiptanui, Komen
That's exactly right. Renato Canova himself in the thread last week said he thinks Jakob could run 12:30 and and around 26:00-26:05.
I have the utmost respect for a legend like Renato.
But he always used that projection from 5000 to 10000 for 5000/10000 focused athletes.
I believe JI will keep focusing his training around the 1500 for Worlds, maybe aiming for the first 3:25 and the mile WR this season.
I don't know if he will succeed, but possibly he shifts his training slightly towards speed once the 2 miles and 3K WR are already in his pocket.
His longest distance shooting for time (and not just the win) would be a mile.
I still believe he COULD get the 5000 WR out of sheer talent and many years of aerobic work making him a cardio monster.
Sure he will still be the favorite in a 5000 race, but I dunno if he can be a legit WR threat at 1500/mile and 5000 convergently.
I'm afraid that, as young as he is, if he doesn't get these WR the next season, he will start chasing them on borrowed time. Just take a look at the ages of the WR holders (Hagos is a dop... outlier).
All the top distance runners are cardio monsters. Does he have a higher VO2 max than the East-Africans, who train extremely hard and were raised at altitude?
Ingebrigtsen is on the strength side of 1500m and has to have maximum fitness to be competitive at that distance.
That is the point I don't agree has been shown. He doesn't "clearly have the ability". He may, but nothing so far demonstrates it. That is the nature of sport. Hypothetically anything is possible but it means nothing until it is achieved.
How do you rank his chances to get the 5000m WR within the next two years?
Using the 3k as a measure for 5k potential is not realistic. It is only a little over half the distance. It would be similar to saying what you would think would be the predictable 1500 time of an 800 runner. There isn't a consistent ratio when these distances are nearly doubled. They are different events. Ingebrigtsen won't show what he is really capable of over the 5k until he goes for time over the distance. A tactical championship race isn't that measure. El G was capable of beating the best in a 5k championship race, as he did in Athens, but he wasn't a true exponent of that distance.
The greatest 5k/10k runners mentioned above were not 1500 specialists, as Ingebrigtsen is. He is faster over the shorter distance but his peak appears to be the 2k-3k. So far he hasn't shown the endurance of the best 5k runners, who were also 10k exponents. Again, there isn't anything that Ingebrigtsen has so far done to show he has the endurance that extends to excelling over 10k. His HM is not a great recommendation.
1500m is 87.5% longer than 800m
5000m is 66.7% longer than 3000m
The longer the distances, they get relatively closer to each other.
You have argued for pages how distinct the 400m and the 800m are.
In 7:17.55 and 7:54.10 (5000m is 55.3% longer than 2 Miles) form, the Olympic and two times World champion Ingebrigtsen for sure can run faster than 12:48.45.
Not sure if he can break 12:35.36. I'm sceptical, but we have to wait.
You are being too pedantic about the relationship between these distances. I agree with your general point that the longer the distances the more they are related - which is why I chose the 800/1500 as an analogy for the 3k/5 comparison. Similar, but not exactly the same. And, yes - the difference between the 400 and 800 is much more dramatic.
I could give an example of two athletes similar to Ingebrigtsen. Keino and El G. Both - like Ingebrigtsen is - were primarily 1500 runners who also succeeded up to the 5k. Neither did anything in the 10k (I don't think El G even ran it). Both also depended on more tactical races over the 5k to win, that enabled them to use superior speed over other 5k runners.
My perception of Ingebrigtsen is that his wheelhouse is 2-3k, which is why he is beatable over the 1500 and while capable of outkicking the competition in slower 5k races has shown none of the exceptional ability of his 2-3k records. I doubt he will get the 5k record or transition to the 10k.
I have the utmost respect for a legend like Renato.
But he always used that projection from 5000 to 10000 for 5000/10000 focused athletes.
I believe JI will keep focusing his training around the 1500 for Worlds, maybe aiming for the first 3:25 and the mile WR this season.
I don't know if he will succeed, but possibly he shifts his training slightly towards speed once the 2 miles and 3K WR are already in his pocket.
His longest distance shooting for time (and not just the win) would be a mile.
I still believe he COULD get the 5000 WR out of sheer talent and many years of aerobic work making him a cardio monster.
Sure he will still be the favorite in a 5000 race, but I dunno if he can be a legit WR threat at 1500/mile and 5000 convergently.
I'm afraid that, as young as he is, if he doesn't get these WR the next season, he will start chasing them on borrowed time. Just take a look at the ages of the WR holders (Hagos is a dop... outlier).
All the top distance runners are cardio monsters. Does he have a higher VO2 max than the East-Africans, who train extremely hard and were raised at altitude?
Ingebrigtsen is on the strength side of 1500m and has to have maximum fitness to be competitive at that distance.
Yes, all the top distance runners are cardio monsters. But we don't know now how much of that is also due to doping. The chances are, they will be.
5000m WR holders who were not close to that level in the 10000m: Lehtinen, Mäki, Hägg, Pirie, Keino, Quax, Moorcroft, Aouita, Kiptanui, Komen
Valid points but most were 1500/5k runners - as Ingebrigtsen appears to be - which means that they weren't particularly suited, for the most part, to the 10k - and that is the distance that is the subject of the thread. You might also note that the runners you mention competed decades ago. Of the most recent you list, Komen, I think that Geb and Bekele were better from the 5k up. Great 5k/10k runners weren't true 1500 runners. Look at Cheptegei today.
I'm done doubting his ability to beat the 5000 WR. I find the claims that he could go sub 12:30 unrealistic, though.
But does he actually stand a chance at the 10000 WR? No current athlete has got closer than 20".
He weights aprox. 15 kg more than Chep and 20 more than Kiplimo/Aregawi/Barega.
Considering he would have to run the last 5000 alone, isn't his morphology (1'87/75 kg) too "big" for wind resistance, heat dissipation...
...and carrying these 74/75 kg every stride?
For instance, Joshua is pretty tall for a distance runner (1.83) but below 60 kg, so he benefits from stride length without the "big" (again, for a distance runner) frame.
Kejelcha is barely his same height weighting at least 15 kg less.
TL;DR: Jakob's frame could be too big for 10000 & up distances.
Hagos Gebrhiwet ran 12:36.73 for 5000m in May. You know what Jakob did to him at the finals in Paris? Casually Jogged around him in the final 200 meters and beat him by 2 seconds. You're telling me the 7:17.55 3K guy couldn't run 12.5 laps at 60s? His 3k avg laps are 58.34s. When Gebrselassie ran 12:39.36 for 5000m, his 3000m PB was 7:25.09 (his 3000m average for 5K was 7:35.62) a 10-second differential of Pace between 3000m and 5000m. Same with many Greats
Chris Solinsky - 3000m (7:34.32) / 5000m (12:55.53) = 7:45.32 3000m Pace
Just three examples and all are within the 10-second range. Jakob would only need 12.45-second range.
As for the 10K, while it is largely unknown just because his elite speed is limited to 1500m/5000m. If he breaks 12:30 in the 5K, without a doubt he'd atleast be able to go under 26:30 (Low-balling). At the Olympics he trashed multiple Sub 27 guys and beat Biniam Mehary. The 17 year old who ran 26:37 for the 10,000m in Spain in June. As bad as he looked running 27:27 in Copenhagen, he was likely tired from having to run 3:30 1500m less than 48 hours before + He had to run after the 27:27 to finish 13.1 miles. Give him 3 months of training and he'd easily drop Sub 26:40 in the 10K. Give him another year and the WR is his. If Chris Solinsky can break 27, Jakob can go below 26:30. Enough said.
Beating Hagos is a race 40s slower than WR pace says nothing about Jakob’s potential.
If the 1500m was won in 3:43 and Hobbs Kessler easily beat Jakob in the last 150m it would not indicate that Hobbs was in WR shape.
Using the 3k as a measure for 5k potential is not realistic. It is only a little over half the distance. It would be similar to saying what you would think would be the predictable 1500 time of an 800 runner. There isn't a consistent ratio when these distances are nearly doubled. They are different events. Ingebrigtsen won't show what he is really capable of over the 5k until he goes for time over the distance. A tactical championship race isn't that measure. El G was capable of beating the best in a 5k championship race, as he did in Athens, but he wasn't a true exponent of that distance.
The greatest 5k/10k runners mentioned above were not 1500 specialists, as Ingebrigtsen is. He is faster over the shorter distance but his peak appears to be the 2k-3k. So far he hasn't shown the endurance of the best 5k runners, who were also 10k exponents. Again, there isn't anything that Ingebrigtsen has so far done to show he has the endurance that extends to excelling over 10k. His HM is not a great recommendation.
3000m is a V02 Max Event along with anything above it.
800m is very Anaerobic to compared to the 1500m. Most 800m runners prefer to run 400m over the 1500m.
As well, Hagos Gebrhiwet is 6 years older than Jakob. You're telling me a 24 year old who has basically the World Record in every distance below isn't capable of running a tad slower for five more minutes?
As for it being a tactical race, so what? That makes Gebrhiwet look bad not Jakob. Some guy who runs 1500m year-round bested you at your own distance. Plus, it's not like Hagos is slow or something, He's run 7:30 for the 3000m and been dropping Sub-12:50 for the 5000m for a decade.
Hagos Gebrhiwet ran 12:36.73 for 5000m in May. You know what Jakob did to him at the finals in Paris? Casually Jogged around him in the final 200 meters and beat him by 2 seconds. You're telling me the 7:17.55 3K guy couldn't run 12.5 laps at 60s? His 3k avg laps are 58.34s. When Gebrselassie ran 12:39.36 for 5000m, his 3000m PB was 7:25.09 (his 3000m average for 5K was 7:35.62) a 10-second differential of Pace between 3000m and 5000m. Same with many Greats
Chris Solinsky - 3000m (7:34.32) / 5000m (12:55.53) = 7:45.32 3000m Pace
Just three examples and all are within the 10-second range. Jakob would only need 12.45-second range.
As for the 10K, while it is largely unknown just because his elite speed is limited to 1500m/5000m. If he breaks 12:30 in the 5K, without a doubt he'd atleast be able to go under 26:30 (Low-balling). At the Olympics he trashed multiple Sub 27 guys and beat Biniam Mehary. The 17 year old who ran 26:37 for the 10,000m in Spain in June. As bad as he looked running 27:27 in Copenhagen, he was likely tired from having to run 3:30 1500m less than 48 hours before + He had to run after the 27:27 to finish 13.1 miles. Give him 3 months of training and he'd easily drop Sub 26:40 in the 10K. Give him another year and the WR is his. If Chris Solinsky can break 27, Jakob can go below 26:30. Enough said.
Beating Hagos is a race 40s slower than WR pace says nothing about Jakob’s potential.
If the 1500m was won in 3:43 and Hobbs Kessler easily beat Jakob in the last 150m it would not indicate that Hobbs was in WR shape.
3:43 1500m and 13:13 5K are not comparable. Plus, Hagos has dropped under 2:30 for his final kilometer in a fast 5000m. He did last year in Monaco when he ran 12:42. Given Jakob's youth, range of elite speed, and Three Gold Medals in the 5000m as well as having a 5K PB of 12:48 (he beat Gebrhiwet in that race too). You can't possibly tell me he doesn't have larger reserves.
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