People are sleeping on Hocker once again.
Not sure how you guys don’t realize how special a 52 second last lap is in a 3:30 race.
I think Rojo’s prediction for Hocked seems pretty reasonable. Think of it this way: if the race is won in 3:30 or slower Hocker has a 90% chance of medaling. I’d say there’s roughly a 15% chance that it’s that slow.
In a 3:29 race Hocker’s odds are going to drop down to roughly 35% to medal (odds are he’s going to be fitter than at the trials and it’s only a second faster than trials anyways it’s obvious he can run a 3:29, more depends how much he can kick off it, I’d say 1/3 times he’s going to kick like he did at Trials). 3:29 race has a 30% chance of happening.
In a 3:28 race Hockers odds drop to 20% (Nuguse more likely now at 25%). I’m skeptical about Hockers abilities to run a 3:28, however he won’t need to run that necessarily to medal, odds are 3rd place will be a second back from the winner and I’m confident he can run a 3:29 with a fast close as long as he doesn’t take it out too fast. 40% chance of a 3:28 race.
3:27 or lower: 5%, he won’t be able to handle the pace but neither will the rest, depends on how well Cheruiyot/Komen/Nuguse handle the race. 15% chance of this pace (might be higher but Jingy may be scared of Kerr doing the same thing as he did last time if he leads the whole way through, I’d expect the pace to jump at 1k to go).