From #1 (Grant Fisher) to #33 Whittni Morgan - Here as the US Mid-D and Distance Runners' Medal Odds

As a math phd, my first thought on the article was whether the expected value would line up with rojo's preface that he thought the over/under would be at 2.5. Turns out he was pretty close: 2.148. I love a bit of speculation, so this was great!

No, I don't think the Americans will get 2 on the podium because I never said anything about Fiona O'Keefe.

You seem to be getting very defensive over your made up odds. Relax, man. This is all conjecture, it's supposed to be fun!

Don’t think the Akins/Whittaker numbers are worth calling out at all. Yes 25% might be high, and it could be more like 10-15% as Akins is in a large group. But Whittaker and Akins are quite different in ability to *make the final*. Whittaker would need a career-best performance to in her first senior global champs after a long college campaign. Hard to see it, whereas Akins is favored to make the finals.

People are sleeping on Hocker once again.
Not sure how you guys don’t realize how special a 52 second last lap is in a 3:30 race.

I think Rojo’s prediction for Hocked seems pretty reasonable. Think of it this way: if the race is won in 3:30 or slower Hocker has a 90% chance of medaling. I’d say there’s roughly a 15% chance that it’s that slow.

In a 3:29 race Hocker’s odds are going to drop down to roughly 35% to medal (odds are he’s going to be fitter than at the trials and it’s only a second faster than trials anyways it’s obvious he can run a 3:29, more depends how much he can kick off it, I’d say 1/3 times he’s going to kick like he did at Trials). 3:29 race has a 30% chance of happening.

In a 3:28 race Hockers odds drop to 20% (Nuguse more likely now at 25%). I’m skeptical about Hockers abilities to run a 3:28, however he won’t need to run that necessarily to medal, odds are 3rd place will be a second back from the winner and I’m confident he can run a 3:29 with a fast close as long as he doesn’t take it out too fast. 40% chance of a 3:28 race.

3:27 or lower: 5%, he won’t be able to handle the pace but neither will the rest, depends on how well Cheruiyot/Komen/Nuguse handle the race. 15% chance of this pace (might be higher but Jingy may be scared of Kerr doing the same thing as he did last time if he leads the whole way through, I’d expect the pace to jump at 1k to go).

Great work! When are you going to do one for the sprints?

Go Grant Fisher!

You are an inspiration.

The USA is rooting for you.

Go team USA - the USA is rooting for you.

Constien is a clear #1 with a sliightly higher chance of medalling than Fisher and Akins and far higher odds to do so than any M or W 1500 runner.

Actually I misspoke. Odds in poker are expressed as the ratio of favorable outcomes to unfavorable, but the other way around. For instance the flush draw is always 1.86 to 1 (35%) against you making it. The reason why its always expressed this way is because you are analyzing the amount of outside money ($1.86) to your investment ($1) before you can profit. Got it?

Not bad overall, but O’Keeffe and Wayment ahead of Mackay and Nuguse is super strange. I’d almost reverse their percentages (Nuguse and Mackay have 15% - I’d give Nuguse more if anything - O’Keeffe and Wayment 5%).

Rojos odds imply there is a 93% chance of an American distance runner medaling. I'd say that's actually optimistic!

That’s more semantic than anything else

Rojo - I’d like to place $1000 on Nuguse for the bronze at plus 900, plz.

rojo did Hoppel dirty

great article

Interesting post. I'm not sure about your belief in Hocker's ability to kick in a 3:29 or faster race as compared to Nuguse. Given Nuguse did all the work at the trials, that really took the sting out of him the last 200m. The consensus seems to be that Jacob will push the pace from far out and may lead the whole thing. That makes this a time trial for Nuguse and Hocker. Why should we believe in this scenario Hocker has any advantage over Nuguse? I give Nuguse the edge to medal in a 3:29 or faster race. Therefore, on balance, I think Nuguse has a higher probability of medaling than Hocker. BUT, I think Hocker has a higher chance of a GOLD medal than Nuguse because he can win a race that is 3:30 or slower.

I made a little mistake while typing up the 3:29 race scenario. What makes Hocker decently likely to medal in that scenario is that typically the third place finisher is 0.5-1 seconds behind the winner. Given that, Hocker would have to run a 3:29 mid to 3:30 high, this is basically the same time he ran at trials which I have a really hard time seeing someone else beat him for that 3rd spot.

I’m also not bullish on Nuguse’s chances either, the best he’s shown this year is an aggressively paced 3:29 (could have maybe gone high 3:28 given proper pacing). That type of time I believe trials Hocker is fit enough to run (52 last lap doesn’t come out of no where, he can at least drop 1.5 seconds).

My second issue with Nuguse is that at no point this year has he shown his kick was at the same level as what it used to be. Indoors this year vs last year he ran very similar times but this time with a much slower last lap (3:47 miles). He also wasn’t able to kick past Hocker despite Hocker going way earlier than usual (which isn’t the end of the world considering he lead most of the race but it’s worth noting his kick isn’t anything special this year).

Finally, I don’t really agree with the premise that it’s going to be a time trial, it could be, but it’s unlikely to. Jingy’s tried making it a time trial twice in a row and failed both times. The only time he won was when he himself was paced by Cheryuiot (my bad if I misspelled his name). It is possible it goes that way and in that scenario I do agree Nuguse does have the slight edge given Hocker hasn’t yet shown to do well in races that fast (though I’m guessing with perfect conditions he could run a 3:28 high), while Nuguse is basically a 3:27 mid runner. A more likely scenario in my opinion is the pace jumping up in intensity with 1000m to go (so that Kerr/Jingy don’t have to lead the whole way). That would result in a slightly slower race that would most likely favor Hocker over Nuguse (as it would be most likely won in 3:29).

As for the OT finals, Hocker surged massively with 250m to go and gapped Nuguse, but Nuguse did close the gap down the stretch. Great race by Hocker but even just a bit faster pace and Nuguse along for the ride and I don't know if Hocker beats him. I agree that Jingy may not lead from the gun, he may run like the Euro finals. But even then the last 1000m will be very fast and not a kickers race per se. Jingy is in supreme shape judging from Monaco and he will not let it be slower than this. This may be slightly better for Hocker, but I think the winning time is still 3:28, which looks like Jingy/Kerr and third place in 3:29.xx.

Re womens 800 there is no chance of Akins or Wilson medaling. Akins will do well to make the final. The point in the preview about the relative talent gap between #1-10 in W800 vs M800 is well taken. Keely is unbeaten at 800 this year and Reekie is clearly world #2 on time. Both have strong champs records.

Both these athletes will halve their points from the last Oly 800 (2->1 and 4 > 2). Alex Bell would be favored for 3rd if she was actually running the 800 and Goule and others occupy the rather large void between #2 Reekie and Akins medal chances. Mu would by no means be guaranteed a medal in her rather lacking 2024 form even if she had somehow made the team.

Sooo....No medals for team USA in this event.

After the Games theres a unique opportunity.

The Brits should attack the 4x800 WR and destroy another of the tainted Eastern bloc records that has poisoned womens track for decades. Hodgkinson/Reekie and any combo of Bell/Muir/Gill are clearly capable of taking it down (7:51).