What's the running equivalent of Tadej Pogacar riding ~7 W/kg for 40 min?

Not just this, but even if 90's riders had gearing that didn't force 70rpm climbing the 8/9speed cassette would have had huge jumps between gears. A typical 12 speed 11-32 cassette has 1.75 teeth difference on average. If you wanted that sort of jump on a 9 speed you'd be stuck on a 11-26. Pretty much dead on the standard 12-25 cassette of the 90's.

If you used MTB cassettes from the 90's you'll remember the crazy jumps, 70rpm in one gear and 85rpm in the next.

So you're saying that Pogi has double the per kg power output of a recreational cyclist (and let's ignore that it happened at the end of the second week on a grand tour). If an average recreational runner can do a 40-minute 10k, does that mean that Pogi essentially did a 40-minute 20k run (43-minute HM)?

Lance Armstrong was using pretty high cadence

Not mentioned yet is that the listed times are from the bottom, but there is a huge variance over the years on how far up the climb the riders start going full gas, as well as the pacing before they hit that point. As often observed by older riders like G Thomas, the races are paced harder overall in recent years. That's how a well back 10th(-ish) place yesterday could be high up on the all-time list despite not really being a great ride.

A former pro gave this answer today.

He named all the technical things like the bike and the gearing. Pros today are a lot more flexible on their crankset choices and cassette choices. Back on Armstrong's day it was a 53 / 39 or you weren't a man. When Hamilton broke his collar bone and kept riding, he moved to a compact. That was 'excused" cos he was injured.

Today they can run 34 + on the back.

The big issue he said was that they are eating 3 x as many carbs an hour than they used to. Nutrition development is huge.

The ride was set up like a time trial. Matteo Jorgenson and Visma tried to burn off the UAE riders pushed the pace. The plan was for JV to go for minutes. Pogcar sat on. Jorgenson blew, then then JV went and Pogacar sat on for another 4 kms. When JV blew he went by him for the last 4k.

It was a dream ride. He only had to make one move.

No. You're conflating power and speed. Producing twice as much running power doesn't make you run twice as fast, beacaue air resistance is the primary force you need to overcome and air resistance is cubic.

You clearly don't understand what the numbers mean.

Its watts per kilo. Pogacar is 5'9" and weighs about 65kgs. His FTP is likely well over 400. That's the theoretical watts you can push for an hour. His peak watts are likely over 1200. The sprinters are heavier and way stronger.

A recreational cyclist may have an FTP 280 - 320. If they are hardcore. A competitive cyclist will be over 350.

7 wkg is probably less than his FTP. What makes these guys super is their ability to do this day after day. They sleep in the peloton, then blast when it matters.

As a 65 year old my FTP was 300. My wpkg was 3.

Its math

On a steep enough climb power and speed are fairly linear as there is little aero drag.

But to a further point, yes, Pog has roughly double the 1h power output of a rec cyclist (~400-450 v. ~200-250). The average rec runner can't do 40 min 10k. Look at results from your last local race. The average is around 60 min. If you revise and say Pog did the equivalent of a 30min 10k then yes, that would be accurate.

No, this isn't correct. And the fact that cycling power and speed are reasonably linear up a steep climb is basically why. Rolling resistance and gravity are substantially greater forces when cycling up a mountin than when running on fllat ground.

They asked about running, not cycling. Somebody who produces twice as much power will not run twice as fast. It doesn't matter what the average person runs a 10k in or what Pogs hypothetical 10k is, doubling the output doesn't double the speed. Doesn't matter if it's 20min 10k vs 40, or 30min 10k vs 60. You can't just take a pure 2x output (running watts) and translate it to a 2x speed like you sorta kinda can when cycling up a steep hill

You don't go twice as fast with twice as much power, due to air (and other) resistance. If I remember physics correctly, it's logarithmic. Maybe.

And no, he doesn't have double the w/kg of a recreational cyclist. He has double the w/kg of an advanced cyclist. He probably has triple the w/kg of a recreational cyclist. It's unreal.

A couple people mentioned how training is different now than it was a few decades ago. I know almost nothing about cycling training. What were they doing a few decades ago? What are they doing differently now?

I have been up Tour climbs on various platforms.

1) old tubulars were great, and the guys today ride today's tubulars. Superior tech, especially for climbing, especially in my experience at high psi. I would say some of the new ones are as good as the old ones used to be that were dedicated to track, but are now able to survive the roads (some of them).

2) Al frames like Pantani's are actually pretty damn good, I have been up some climbs on an Al Ciocc with carbon rear triangle and forks, and it was light and punchy. IMO there is no real advantage to today's carbon, I have also been on the best Cervelo for comparison.

3) In a ridiculous cohort, Pogacar (and Vingo) are ridiculous. That takes real work, like Bolt, to separate from those who have separated. It makes you wonder if they are all, in fact, doing the same thing, or if UAE are doing something different, or differently. He's a euro (Slovenian), so he will probably continue to skate.

4) the steps between gears on old cogs could vary wildly. There are some that are single-tooth steps, notably from Regina back in the day. I still ride one on the prairie. As for the chainrings, they used to vary widely too, I have used from 54 down to miniscule, on the 7/8-speed DA platform. Plus, back in the day, guys would use CUSTOM rings and cogs, there is no telling what in fact they were riding, except from old stories and rumors.

5) stories about machismo re: gears back in the day are absolutely true, I know an ex-pro and he says exactly the same thing.

6) I'm glad I'm not doing a sport where EPO, etc. is the norm. Sounds very risky.

These measures are funny, because there is specificity.

My bike numbers are pretty good but not spectacular, but my rowing numbers are off the charts. How I wish it was the reverse, lol.

Pogacar etc are obviously all highly adapted and specific, and optimized for cycling. Just because you get down to 5-9/143 doesn't mean you will climb with him or achieve his numbers, even if you do everything he does, and are physically very similar.

Q: How do the 1-hour velodrome guys compare to Pogacar's figures?

No, air resistance is not the primary force you overcome when running. The primary force is recovering the lost momentum every footstrike. So power and speed are close to linear in running. Not perfectly linear (especially not if you're talking about a 100% increase), but similar to biking on a steep incline.

The answers are in this thread, good job.

Anyone who doubts Pog could top Pantani like that are denying the drop in marathon, 10K and 5K times since 2000. If the UCI would get out of the way, and a lead-in and setup like the stage the other day repeats next year it would easily drop another minute. Bikes can be another three or four pounds lighter easily, helmets and clothes more aero, shoe covers, etc.

WTF? Are we back to the 1950s when mountaineers were smoking cigarettes to acclimate faster to altitude? Do you have a link to the article?

Most of the riders don’t make their power public on Strava. A strong tailwind is a massive advantage over a doped up rider with minimal wind, especially a headwind. Super light weight aero wheels, even their skinsuits make a difference. He also had massive pulling from Matteo and then Jonas before he went solo for the remainder. All in all, that 7 watts/kg is an estimation. I’ve personally had Strava estimate my power on some KOM’s I went all out in and before I had a power meter it estimated it well above 7 watts/kg - but Strava didn’t have the 15 mph tailwind I had in its algorithm.

Ganna and Wiggins are two recent top hour results I can think of, that also had data shared on power. I'm not completely dialed into these records so forgive my shoddy sources below.

Ganna (2022):
"In the practice run, where he did around 55.308kph, he did 431 watts average with a pretty uneven split" - some random reddit thread I dug up.

Wiggins(2015):
"Smashed the World Hour Record, going 54.526 kilometers (33.88 miles) in an hour at sea level". same random reddit thread said he was estimated at 420-450 watts avg.

Wiggins is ~6'3" and 150 lbs, Ganna is ~6'4" and 180 per wikipedia. This is definitely lower than the 7 w/kg figure posted on the climb.

So if we were to just look at power/weight Pogi would stand a chance on paper but I don't think that would actually translate that well in reality. These hour record attempts on the track require an insanely slippery tt position and the use of a single gear bike. There are better time trialists in the tour than Pogi even without the restriction of a single gear, being able to hold a single cadence and rock steady power for an hour is a skill in its own that I don't think Pogi necessarily excels at (Vingegaard and his team have said his explosiveness this tour is unreal and you can't have both), and you often lose some power going from road position to tt position which is why the larger guys tend to do a bit better here. The limiting factor is w/CdA rather than w/kg in a flat non technical time trial, e.g. aero drag not weight.

To sum this rant up, he would certainly be someone near the top of the list in an hour run because he is an unbelievably fit cyclist, but I don't think he would take the WR. It's just not what he's built for.