Geb, like other Ethiopians, practiced his kick. Their training has them doing sprints in the forest glens and spiked-up sprints on the track multiple times per week. That has served them very well in championship races for a long time.
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So true I know another coach who trained his 800m to 10000m runners like that starting middle of indoors. Every track season would be followed by (6 - 8)100m sprints on grass at 75 - 80% max effort.
Doesn’t Jakob have a meager 1-4 record in global championship 1500 finals, and didn’t Hicham have a stellar 7-3 record in global championship 1500 finals?
More nuance to it. ‘95 Morceli smoked him with no pacer. ‘96 he falls with no pacer. ‘97 he won not running from the front until the last lap-plus. ‘99 he was spooked by Ngeny stalking him in his mile WR. He went with a pacer and ran a ridiculous 3:27CR. ‘00 tried the same thing but badly paced by his compatriot and Ngeny got him. ‘01 his pacer does a great job with no Ngeny and he wins easily. 03 and ‘04 he abandons the pacer and wins with a long run from home. Seems like 5-3 (2-1 with pacer, 3-2 without) to 1-3 and Jakob has tried a tougher tactic that maybe yes he should abandon.
The one common denominator we have seen, and this is really simple - is that if you want to front run at this level there is one thing you simply can't do - slow down at any point in the race. And it doesn't matter how strong you are, how much better you PR is than the field - in a championship final setting someone will be good enough to take advantage of that inefficiency and will beat you.
I'm glad you mentioned the 2000 Sydney final because the exact same phenomena that allowed Nygeny to beat El G was the same that allowed Wightmann and Kerr to beat Jakob in '22 and '23 respectively. In Sydney they (the Morrocans) tried the same plan as Seville but this time with a different "pacer" and he got it so horribly wrong. In Seville he had Kaouch who went 54.31, 1.52.15 so he was able to keep the entire field above threshold and as the best guy in the race, he survived the war of attrition the best and won easily. In Sydney he didn't have Koach but Youssef Babb who also went out in 54 (54.14) but then ran a horrible second lap of 60.63 which let the entire field recovery and from that point Hicham was a sitting duck (and was lucky to even hold off Lagat for Silver). This is also proof that a human body pacing you is ultimately meaningless if they mess up the pace - you are better off on your own if you can run and hold the right tempo yourself.
But this race was eerily similar to last year in Budapest except it's even tougher for Jakob because he doesn't even get the benefit of someone running in front of him. Jakob lets Kipsang lead in 56.03 (close to Jakobs preferred opening lap pace) but inexplicably runs 58.16 for the second lap and at this point you can throw the 3.27.1 1500m, 7.54.10 2 mile out the window.
I think Jakob can win Paris in more than one way. It's very clear if he can replicate an effort like the other night and simply run each lap faster than the previous - even from a starting base of say 56.0, he's going to win. This keeps the entire field at threshold for the entire race and in this instance nobody can beat him. But I think he can also win from 1000m out but only if he is prepared to really drop the hammer right from the point he makes his move. So this doesn't mean just getting to the front and slowly ramping the pace up. This means at this point he needs to really lean into it (literally and figuratively) and accelerate into a low 55 second lap from which point he simply can never slow down. He's capable of closing a race in 55.3,55.2,27.3 (high 2.17's) off a mixed opening 500m and if he did this I don't believe anyone is passing him.
Now of course the caveat as we all know - doing this with no guidance (aka lights) no matter how good you are is still really hard. Either way the golden rule for Jakob (and I think he knows this and embraces the challenge of doing this) - no breathers, never slow down.
You don’t get to decide which global championships count and which ones don’t. Hicham was 7-3 and Jakob is 1-4.
OK I agree with this on some level but I was somewhat stunned by the silver and bronze medalists in 1995 having career PBs over 3:37. Good for Hicham, but people on here can let me know if they consider Hobbs Kessler 1-1 in global championships with a sterling record of 1 gold, 1 bronze because of his road mile win and world indoor bronze.
In 1995 indoors, Hicham beat Fermin Cacho, the reigning Olympic 1500 champion who would go on to win silver in that event at the 1996 Olympics. In 1997 indoors, Hicham beat William Tanui, the 1992 Olympic 800 champion who was no slouch at 1500, having finished 5th at 1500 in the 1996 Olympics.
When Hicham ran the 1500 indoors, he beat an Olympic champion for each of his gold medals. When Jakob ran the 1500 indoors, he lost to someone who, to this day, has never made an Olympic or outdoor world championship final.
Looking at what Hobbs did in the road mile is comparing apples and oranges. He ran a difference distance (related, but still different), and he ran a completely different modality. His 1500 track world championship record is 0-1.
The one common denominator we have seen, and this is really simple - is that if you want to front run at this level there is one thing you simply can't do - slow down at any point in the race. And it doesn't matter how strong you are, how much better you PR is than the field - in a championship final setting someone will be good enough to take advantage of that inefficiency and will beat you.
I'm glad you mentioned the 2000 Sydney final because the exact same phenomena that allowed Nygeny to beat El G was the same that allowed Wightmann and Kerr to beat Jakob in '22 and '23 respectively. In Sydney they (the Morrocans) tried the same plan as Seville but this time with a different "pacer" and he got it so horribly wrong. In Seville he had Kaouch who went 54.31, 1.52.15 so he was able to keep the entire field above threshold and as the best guy in the race, he survived the war of attrition the best and won easily. In Sydney he didn't have Koach but Youssef Babb who also went out in 54 (54.14) but then ran a horrible second lap of 60.63 which let the entire field recovery and from that point Hicham was a sitting duck (and was lucky to even hold off Lagat for Silver). This is also proof that a human body pacing you is ultimately meaningless if they mess up the pace - you are better off on your own if you can run and hold the right tempo yourself.
But this race was eerily similar to last year in Budapest except it's even tougher for Jakob because he doesn't even get the benefit of someone running in front of him. Jakob lets Kipsang lead in 56.03 (close to Jakobs preferred opening lap pace) but inexplicably runs 58.16 for the second lap and at this point you can throw the 3.27.1 1500m, 7.54.10 2 mile out the window.
I think Jakob can win Paris in more than one way. It's very clear if he can replicate an effort like the other night and simply run each lap faster than the previous - even from a starting base of say 56.0, he's going to win. This keeps the entire field at threshold for the entire race and in this instance nobody can beat him. But I think he can also win from 1000m out but only if he is prepared to really drop the hammer right from the point he makes his move. So this doesn't mean just getting to the front and slowly ramping the pace up. This means at this point he needs to really lean into it (literally and figuratively) and accelerate into a low 55 second lap from which point he simply can never slow down. He's capable of closing a race in 55.3,55.2,27.3 (high 2.17's) off a mixed opening 500m and if he did this I don't believe anyone is passing him.
Now of course the caveat as we all know - doing this with no guidance (aka lights) no matter how good you are is still really hard. Either way the golden rule for Jakob (and I think he knows this and embraces the challenge of doing this) - no breathers, never slow down.
Great analysis
I think the reason he slowed down the 2nd lap in Budapest is that he was indeed sick and literally couldn’t push the pace.
In Paris, IF he lets someone else lead the first 400-600m, he should be able to crank the long kick for home. but he runs the risk of being in an unpredictable pack for that time with falls, pushing etc. I think he takes the lead after 300m and never relinquishes it.
This post was edited 50 seconds after it was posted.
Why take a chance of being out kicked when both are slower than Josh at 800m but Hicham was much slower than his opponents at 800m. Why haven't ANYONE tried training to emulate Hicham's long drive slowly increasing the pace from 800 to 1000m out til everyone lets go.
We don’t know how fast current Josh is in an all out 800m, and we don’t know how fast current Jakob is in an all out 800m, so your premises are somewhat speculative… “Hicham was much slower than his opponents at 800m” -I wonder if Salvitore will spank you a little here…
Hicham ran the last 800 in the Athens 1500 final as fast as Jakob has ever run the 800. He had more speed than Jakob has.
Doesn’t Jakob have a meager 1-4 record in global championship 1500 finals, and didn’t Hicham have a stellar 7-3 record in global championship 1500 finals?
Jakob has 3 golds and 2 silvers overall. How many did El Guerrouj have at 23?
Kick has little to do with shorter distances PB or even basic speed. Case in point, Komen had a significantly better 1500 and 3000m PB than Geb, but every time in a 5k when it came down to a kick, Geb always smoked him. The only time that Geb got "outkicked" wasn't really a kick but Geb was just gassed.
What dictates a kick is merely how much you've left at the end of the race or your aerobic power. Kerr outkicked Jakob last year not because he had a better 800m PB but well he just had more in the tank, it's as simple as that.
It isn't as simple as that. Kerr has more speed than Jakob and when they are both at the same point of fatigue in the race he has more speed to call on. Speed in middle distance races is important or we would see 5k/10k runners routinely dominating the 1500.
This post was edited 3 minutes after it was posted.
The one common denominator we have seen, and this is really simple - is that if you want to front run at this level there is one thing you simply can't do - slow down at any point in the race.
Small adjustment to this statement: if you want to win at this level, you must commit to the plan you make. If El G wanted Sydney to be that fast, he should've committed to it and moved past his pacer the second he slowed down. Instead, he let the pace slow, and even worse, did nothing to make it fast again once he did take the lead. Jakob wanted Budapest to be fast, but when he went to the front, he did nothing to make it so. When Tim won in Doha, it was because he 100% committed himself to the fast pace and broke the rest of the field.
This remains true even in slow races. Centrowitz in Rio was the perfect execution of a race plan for a slow race. Go to the front, slow down, and if anyone tries to pass, accelerate to hold them off until they give up, at which point you slow back down. While not quite as slow, El G's Athens race was much the same. Sit back and let the pack determine the pace for the first 700m, then go to the front and make a long charge for home at a constant acceleration that nobody else in the world can maintain.
Picking the correct race plan for you is a different topic, and a matter of your own personal strengths and weaknesses. The cool part about racing is that there many different ways to get it done, the only consistent factor is that champions come in with a plan and stick to it, knowing that they are the only ones in the world that can properly execute that plan.
The one common denominator we have seen, and this is really simple - is that if you want to front run at this level there is one thing you simply can't do - slow down at any point in the race.
Small adjustment to this statement: if you want to win at this level, you must commit to the plan you make. If El G wanted Sydney to be that fast, he should've committed to it and moved past his pacer the second he slowed down. Instead, he let the pace slow, and even worse, did nothing to make it fast again once he did take the lead. Jakob wanted Budapest to be fast, but when he went to the front, he did nothing to make it so. When Tim won in Doha, it was because he 100% committed himself to the fast pace and broke the rest of the field.
This remains true even in slow races. Centrowitz in Rio was the perfect execution of a race plan for a slow race. Go to the front, slow down, and if anyone tries to pass, accelerate to hold them off until they give up, at which point you slow back down. While not quite as slow, El G's Athens race was much the same. Sit back and let the pack determine the pace for the first 700m, then go to the front and make a long charge for home at a constant acceleration that nobody else in the world can maintain.
Picking the correct race plan for you is a different topic, and a matter of your own personal strengths and weaknesses. The cool part about racing is that there many different ways to get it done, the only consistent factor is that champions come in with a plan and stick to it, knowing that they are the only ones in the world that can properly execute that plan.
I don't think successful front-running necessarily requires maintaining the same pace. It does however require maintaining pressure. Filbert Bayi showed this in the mid-seventies, when he would go out very fast over the first 400 and 800 - achieving a break on the field - and then he would hold on, hoping it would be too much for those behind him to close the gap. It worked for him. We also saw Cheruiyot do that in the 2019 WC.
Jacob (1:47 800m pb 2020) more than anyone needs to start employing this tactic. He has the endurance and if you going to front run do what the two best (Hicham and Almaz) ever do, grind from way out til everyone lets go
If you had bothered to check you would have seen that Jakob's PB is 1:46.44.
Why take a chance of being out kicked when both are slower than Josh at 800m but Hicham was much slower than his opponents at 800m. Why haven't ANYONE tried training to emulate Hicham's long drive slowly increasing the pace from 800 to 1000m out til everyone lets go.
You must be a young guy. That tactic only worked once in the Olympic final for Hicham, when he beat Lagat in 2004. It didn't work in 2000. I would imagine Jakob will do some version of that tactic in Paris
The one common denominator we have seen, and this is really simple - is that if you want to front run at this level there is one thing you simply can't do - slow down at any point in the race.
Small adjustment to this statement: if you want to win at this level, you must commit to the plan you make. If El G wanted Sydney to be that fast, he should've committed to it and moved past his pacer the second he slowed down. Instead, he let the pace slow, and even worse, did nothing to make it fast again once he did take the lead. Jakob wanted Budapest to be fast, but when he went to the front, he did nothing to make it so. When Tim won in Doha, it was because he 100% committed himself to the fast pace and broke the rest of the field.
This remains true even in slow races. Centrowitz in Rio was the perfect execution of a race plan for a slow race. Go to the front, slow down, and if anyone tries to pass, accelerate to hold them off until they give up, at which point you slow back down. While not quite as slow, El G's Athens race was much the same. Sit back and let the pack determine the pace for the first 700m, then go to the front and make a long charge for home at a constant acceleration that nobody else in the world can maintain.
Picking the correct race plan for you is a different topic, and a matter of your own personal strengths and weaknesses. The cool part about racing is that there many different ways to get it done, the only consistent factor is that champions come in with a plan and stick to it, knowing that they are the only ones in the world that can properly execute that plan.
Yeah of course I agree. For me by proxy that is inherently committing to your plan, but it's funny what pressure and the situation does to your judgement.
In Sydney for example, El G was a total mess of anxiety, pressure and expectation and those were basically his words about the whole ordeal for him. When you are running an Olympic final it's funny how "not in the moment" you might be - for example it's pretty clear the plan wasn't for Baba to go out in 54.1 then follow it up with a 60.5, the plan was probably 54.5 and 1.52.0 like Seville with Hicham only ever behind him and that was the plan he committed to.
So it's easy in retrospect to say "we he should have recognized what was happening and just plowed past Baba after 550m" but that of course doesn't take into account the nuance of the situation, his mental state etc etc. In 2000 he was terrified of losing, hard to tell yourself to push for home over 1000m out when the plan was something else (and something that had worked before) and that's even if he consciously realized what was happening.
I guess my point is that you can be committed to a plan - and due to human nature simply not execute it. What's the famous Mike Tyson quote? (we all know it). In running that "punch" can manifest itself in many ways.
More nuance to it. ‘95 Morceli smoked him with no pacer. ‘96 he falls with no pacer. ‘97 he won not running from the front until the last lap-plus. ‘99 he was spooked by Ngeny stalking him in his mile WR. He went with a pacer and ran a ridiculous 3:27CR. ‘00 tried the same thing but badly paced by his compatriot and Ngeny got him. ‘01 his pacer does a great job with no Ngeny and he wins easily. 03 and ‘04 he abandons the pacer and wins with a long run from home. Seems like 5-3 (2-1 with pacer, 3-2 without) to 1-3 and Jakob has tried a tougher tactic that maybe yes he should abandon.
The one common denominator we have seen, and this is really simple - is that if you want to front run at this level there is one thing you simply can't do - slow down at any point in the race. And it doesn't matter how strong you are, how much better you PR is than the field - in a championship final setting someone will be good enough to take advantage of that inefficiency and will beat you.
I'm glad you mentioned the 2000 Sydney final because the exact same phenomena that allowed Nygeny to beat El G was the same that allowed Wightmann and Kerr to beat Jakob in '22 and '23 respectively. In Sydney they (the Morrocans) tried the same plan as Seville but this time with a different "pacer" and he got it so horribly wrong. In Seville he had Kaouch who went 54.31, 1.52.15 so he was able to keep the entire field above threshold and as the best guy in the race, he survived the war of attrition the best and won easily. In Sydney he didn't have Koach but Youssef Babb who also went out in 54 (54.14) but then ran a horrible second lap of 60.63 which let the entire field recovery and from that point Hicham was a sitting duck (and was lucky to even hold off Lagat for Silver). This is also proof that a human body pacing you is ultimately meaningless if they mess up the pace - you are better off on your own if you can run and hold the right tempo yourself.
But this race was eerily similar to last year in Budapest except it's even tougher for Jakob because he doesn't even get the benefit of someone running in front of him. Jakob lets Kipsang lead in 56.03 (close to Jakobs preferred opening lap pace) but inexplicably runs 58.16 for the second lap and at this point you can throw the 3.27.1 1500m, 7.54.10 2 mile out the window.
I think Jakob can win Paris in more than one way. It's very clear if he can replicate an effort like the other night and simply run each lap faster than the previous - even from a starting base of say 56.0, he's going to win. This keeps the entire field at threshold for the entire race and in this instance nobody can beat him. But I think he can also win from 1000m out but only if he is prepared to really drop the hammer right from the point he makes his move. So this doesn't mean just getting to the front and slowly ramping the pace up. This means at this point he needs to really lean into it (literally and figuratively) and accelerate into a low 55 second lap from which point he simply can never slow down. He's capable of closing a race in 55.3,55.2,27.3 (high 2.17's) off a mixed opening 500m and if he did this I don't believe anyone is passing him.
Now of course the caveat as we all know - doing this with no guidance (aka lights) no matter how good you are is still really hard. Either way the golden rule for Jakob (and I think he knows this and embraces the challenge of doing this) - no breathers, never slow down.
I think Jakob does try this. Its just really hard to wind it up for 800m with every 100 being faster than the last, that is why it works.
I have tried this and realized I was building up too fast, couldn't keep cranking out a faster pace and the result is getting kicked down on the homestretch.
Small adjustment to this statement: if you want to win at this level, you must commit to the plan you make. If El G wanted Sydney to be that fast, he should've committed to it and moved past his pacer the second he slowed down. Instead, he let the pace slow, and even worse, did nothing to make it fast again once he did take the lead. Jakob wanted Budapest to be fast, but when he went to the front, he did nothing to make it so. When Tim won in Doha, it was because he 100% committed himself to the fast pace and broke the rest of the field.
This remains true even in slow races. Centrowitz in Rio was the perfect execution of a race plan for a slow race. Go to the front, slow down, and if anyone tries to pass, accelerate to hold them off until they give up, at which point you slow back down. While not quite as slow, El G's Athens race was much the same. Sit back and let the pack determine the pace for the first 700m, then go to the front and make a long charge for home at a constant acceleration that nobody else in the world can maintain.
Picking the correct race plan for you is a different topic, and a matter of your own personal strengths and weaknesses. The cool part about racing is that there many different ways to get it done, the only consistent factor is that champions come in with a plan and stick to it, knowing that they are the only ones in the world that can properly execute that plan.
I don't think successful front-running necessarily requires maintaining the same pace. It does however require maintaining pressure. Filbert Bayi showed this in the mid-seventies, when he would go out very fast over the first 400 and 800 - achieving a break on the field - and then he would hold on, hoping it would be too much for those behind him to close the gap. It worked for him. We also saw Cheruiyot do that in the 2019 WC.
Not sure why you were downvoted, because this is exactly what I was talking about. It's about pressure, commitment, and attempting to do something that you feel only you can do. The problem with El G's plans pre-2003 was that they were always too reliant on someone else to work out, which is why despite being the clear best, he would sometimes lose. Your race plan should always be unique to you, and it should be something that you are confident that you can do and nobody else can.
In 1995 indoors, Hicham beat Fermin Cacho, the reigning Olympic 1500 champion who would go on to win silver in that event at the 1996 Olympics. In 1997 indoors, Hicham beat William Tanui, the 1992 Olympic 800 champion who was no slouch at 1500, having finished 5th at 1500 in the 1996 Olympics.
When Hicham ran the 1500 indoors, he beat an Olympic champion for each of his gold medals. When Jakob ran the 1500 indoors, he lost to someone who, to this day, has never made an Olympic or outdoor world championship final.
Looking at what Hobbs did in the road mile is comparing apples and oranges. He ran a difference distance (related, but still different), and he ran a completely different modality. His 1500 track world championship record is 0-1.
Yeah when you strip out the context that Cacho finished 6th losing to 3:37 guys it looks more impressive. Tanui was past his best days finishing bronze though he had a decent outdoor season (didn't make Kenyan team). I'd never heard of the second placer from Germany. Again, I wouldn't count indoors OR roads. It's not a major part of either Jakob or Hicham's CV at this point.
“What came next was one of the great feats in Olympic history. Over the final two laps, El Guerrouj, pursued by Bernard Lagat, accelerated constantly, running the remainder of the race in controlled 100-metre bursts: each one run quicker than the previous one.”
Heavenly tactical acumen! The bel canto of Max Richter’s Sarajevo playing! Music to my ears! A delight to the senses!
Yeah of course I agree. For me by proxy that is inherently committing to your plan, but it's funny what pressure and the situation does to your judgement.
In Sydney for example, El G was a total mess of anxiety, pressure and expectation and those were basically his words about the whole ordeal for him. When you are running an Olympic final it's funny how "not in the moment" you might be - for example it's pretty clear the plan wasn't for Baba to go out in 54.1 then follow it up with a 60.5, the plan was probably 54.5 and 1.52.0 like Seville with Hicham only ever behind him and that was the plan he committed to.
So it's easy in retrospect to say "we he should have recognized what was happening and just plowed past Baba after 550m" but that of course doesn't take into account the nuance of the situation, his mental state etc etc. In 2000 he was terrified of losing, hard to tell yourself to push for home over 1000m out when the plan was something else (and something that had worked before) and that's even if he consciously realized what was happening.
I guess my point is that you can be committed to a plan - and due to human nature simply not execute it. What's the famous Mike Tyson quote? (we all know it). In running that "punch" can manifest itself in many ways.
Just rewatched the race. What also strikes you is how patient Ngeny is — almost baiting El Guerrouj to NOT push after Baba drops off and make it a breakneck pace. I think he intentionally was giving El Guerrouj extra space (Lagat is much closer to him than he to El Guerrouj) because he wanted this thing to be as far from a burn-up as possible. If you get right on his heels you might wake him up into starting that kick early or showcasing his superior all-out fitness. Instead, he gave El Guerrouj very little to work with not even being able to feel him on his heels. Ngeny was measuring so that he could go by him late and capitalize on El Guerrouj not having much time to respond and losing his form in desperation. If he'd gone 50m earlier, I bet he'd win by more but his gambit was to leave nothing to doubt with a late strike. It's a clinical win for him.
A sidenote is in '99, he seems to have tried to give El Guerrouj the same space in a similar bid. But souped-up Estevez goes flying by him and into El Guerrouj's space kickstarting El Guerrouj hitting top gear at 350 to go. By the time Ngeny gets by Estevez, El G is long gone. I have to imagine Ngeny and Lagat were very clear on that neither of them was challenging for that lead early and the waiting game was how they were going to play it.
In 1995 indoors, Hicham beat Fermin Cacho, the reigning Olympic 1500 champion who would go on to win silver in that event at the 1996 Olympics. In 1997 indoors, Hicham beat William Tanui, the 1992 Olympic 800 champion who was no slouch at 1500, having finished 5th at 1500 in the 1996 Olympics.
When Hicham ran the 1500 indoors, he beat an Olympic champion for each of his gold medals. When Jakob ran the 1500 indoors, he lost to someone who, to this day, has never made an Olympic or outdoor world championship final.
Looking at what Hobbs did in the road mile is comparing apples and oranges. He ran a difference distance (related, but still different), and he ran a completely different modality. His 1500 track world championship record is 0-1.
Yeah when you strip out the context that Cacho finished 6th losing to 3:37 guys it looks more impressive. Tanui was past his best days finishing bronze though he had a decent outdoor season (didn't make Kenyan team). I'd never heard of the second placer from Germany. Again, I wouldn't count indoors OR roads. It's not a major part of either Jakob or Hicham's CV at this point.
The point isn’t where Cacho placed, it’s that he was there. Tanui would actually run his 1500 PR in the summer of 1997 after his indoor loss to Hicham.
You can’t conveniently ignore data points you don’t like. Jakob gave the 1500 indoors a try, and he lost. Hicham gave it a try twice and won both times. Those races may be small parts of their overall CV, but they are still part of it.