To win gold: pretty simple, don’t get boxed and get in the top 4-5 like USA’s and relax as much as possible. If he is within the top 4 with 400 to go he is in a good spot. Someone will make that move to pass Jakob before 200 m to go. Either Hocker does that move or he lets Kerr do it. If Kerr does it let him and then just get on Jakob’s shoulder and wind up with 150 to go. If Hocker makes the move to make the pass with 250 to go make it decisive and hope you can hold everyone off.
Yared Nuguse
To win gold: the problem with his race last year was just a terrible start at the beginning, worked his way up but was running extra distance on the outside, and didn’t make any moves to get in position to win. I think the most ideal position for him is to get behind Jakob to start and hang on. His best wins have all come down to a lean and he is probably greatest leaner I’ver ever seen. But he must lock in like he did when he ran 3:43. If he does that and doesn’t make any unnecessary moves, he can win.
Hobbs Kessler
i think he is just one year away from being in position to win. But maybe he surprises me. I’m pretty sure nobody on this board picked wightman to win in 2022. His 800m pr is .01 faster than Wightman btw. He doesn’t really have that signature kick yet, yet he can run 1:43. Kind of funny but let’s see if Ron warhurst can sharpen the blade more with Kessler. The good things about Hobbs is he has nothing to lose. Still 21 years old with a lot of championship races ahead for him.
All this talk about strategies and kick but the fact of the matter is, the best runner is the one who wins the most consistently throughout many seasons against all of his competition. Jakob is that, Kerr and Nuguse are most certaintly not that. Doesn’t matter who medals in one stupid race.
What is Jakob's record in 1500 races that he didn't control the rabbits and have wavelights to race? Off the top of my head that is just championship races and maybe his last diamond league mile.
All this talk about strategies and kick but the fact of the matter is, the best runner is the one who wins the most consistently throughout many seasons against all of his competition. Jakob is that, Kerr and Nuguse are most certaintly not that. Doesn’t matter who medals in one stupid race.
What is Jakob's record in 1500 races that he didn't control the rabbits and have wavelights to race? Off the top of my head that is just championship races and maybe his last diamond league mile.
His last 5 races have been non rabbitted non pacelights…you don’t watch many of his races do you.
What is Jakob's record in 1500 races that he didn't control the rabbits and have wavelights to race? Off the top of my head that is just championship races and maybe his last diamond league mile.
His last 5 races have been non rabbitted non pacelights…you don’t watch many of his races do you.
Not at all. I was referring to races against all of the top competition not just like the European stuff. I didn't watch a single second of those races LOL
His last 5 races have been non rabbitted non pacelights…you don’t watch many of his races do you.
Not at all. I was referring to races against all of the top competition not just like the European stuff. I didn't watch a single second of those races LOL
Ok…well what other races other than the diamond league is he going to race Nuguse or Kerr or any of the other top competition you speak of? You say he doesn’t win many…but so doesn’t everyone else.
After reading all of this, everyone is taking for granted the most important part of strategies to win. You have to make the final to have a chance at medaling, and no one in the field can afford to take that for granted. It's likely that some heat or semi final will be overloaded and at least one "favorite" will be eliminated before the final.
Once in the final, Yared has the fitness and speed to cover any move by Jakob or Kerr. Just get himself in position to hopefully run for a win, but at least run for a medal coming off the final turn in a fast race. He shouldn't go to the lead early if the pace is slow, he could cut down from 800 out in the unlikely scenario its pedestrian and everyone is waiting for a kick.
Cole, should tuck in at the rail, not worry about where he gets out. If it goes out super fast, he'll have room to pass as the race strings out. If it is slower, all the shuffling in the pack will allow him to at a minimum slide to the back and try and go around and to the front before a big move is made. Then just try and get in position on the back stretch of the third lap.
Hobbs, just not panic, don't cover every move, and try and go with the big moves in the last lap and hope you're the fastest. There are probably 12-15 guys who could sneak in and medal on the right day and no one is good enough to win regardless of the race tactics or position they are in between 1100 and 1400 meters in the race.
Not at all. I was referring to races against all of the top competition not just like the European stuff. I didn't watch a single second of those races LOL
Ok…well what other races other than the diamond league is he going to race Nuguse or Kerr or any of the other top competition you speak of? You say he doesn’t win many…but so doesn’t everyone else.
Agreed but no one thinks everyone else is the overwhelming favorite. If the only examples of him winning are in the perfectly set up races and the only examples of him losing are the complete opposite of the setup races. You could imagine why I say the things I say.
And I really just watch American races,the big diamond League races, and the championship races. So maybe I missed where he had an insane kick in those euro championships. Or a race where he was boxed in and still got out. But I really haven't seen anything that makes him the favorite. When I objectively look at this I think the favorite is Kerr.
People are really overestimating Jakob here. Probably because he wins all these paced diamond league races. But the overwhelming trend is that leading finals is not a winning strategy. Look at the last few years. In 2021, Cheruiyot tried to lead from the gun and got passed by Jakob in the final turn. In 2022, Jakob tried to lead from the gun and got passed at like 250m to go. In 2023, Jakob tried to lead from the gun and got passed on the final turn. Even this most recent US olympic trials (for both the men and women) shows a mirror image of all the recent global finals. Jakob is probably the most fit runner in the field, but the winner will probably be someone drafting off of him for 1200m if he decides to lead from the gun again.
Yeah, a controlled TT is completely different from a championship race with rounds. As much as I find Rojo an idiot, he's spot on last year asking the question if Jakob has practiced running without pacers. Everyone laughed at him, even Jakob himself jokingly said he's the pacemaker, but Rojo was right there.
Wrong, you can’t confidently say Rojo was right when Jakob was sick.
Jakob was sick last year. When he is 100%, he will destroy every american and brit.
He's always "sick " when he loses. Can't lose with grace.
It is the other way around: He only loses when sick (Covid in the indoors WC 2022 and throat infection in Budapest). Apart from when he lost to Wightman in 2022 and Kerr in the Bowerman Mile 2024 (coming back from injury).
PERHAPS you know that he has won every other race (not counting rounds) the last 2.5 season?
To win gold: pretty simple, don’t get boxed and get in the top 4-5 like USA’s and relax as much as possible. If he is within the top 4 with 400 to go he is in a good spot. Someone will make that move to pass Jakob before 200 m to go. Either Hocker does that move or he lets Kerr do it. If Kerr does it let him and then just get on Jakob’s shoulder and wind up with 150 to go. If Hocker makes the move to make the pass with 250 to go make it decisive and hope you can hold everyone off.
Yared Nuguse
To win gold: the problem with his race last year was just a terrible start at the beginning, worked his way up but was running extra distance on the outside, and didn’t make any moves to get in position to win. I think the most ideal position for him is to get behind Jakob to start and hang on. His best wins have all come down to a lean and he is probably greatest leaner I’ver ever seen. But he must lock in like he did when he ran 3:43. If he does that and doesn’t make any unnecessary moves, he can win.
Hobbs Kessler
i think he is just one year away from being in position to win. But maybe he surprises me. I’m pretty sure nobody on this board picked wightman to win in 2022. His 800m pr is .01 faster than Wightman btw. He doesn’t really have that signature kick yet, yet he can run 1:43. Kind of funny but let’s see if Ron warhurst can sharpen the blade more with Kessler. The good things about Hobbs is he has nothing to lose. Still 21 years old with a lot of championship races ahead for him.
Spoiler alert, the men's 1500 winner will be whoever can most efficiently be in second or third right behind Jakob at the bell. That's the race plan for all these guys, that's the race plan for Josh Kerr. The question is who will execute it on the day. Probably Kerr or nuguse. Hobbes isn't good enough tactically. Hocker is likely going to try to start from too far back to be win, it might be a brilliant play for bronze though.
So you don´t think Jakob has any chance of winning?
I can't believe people here are saying Jakob is the favorite to win, or even saying he has a 50% chance of winning. Idk if that's people underestimating Kerr or overestimating Jakob, probably both. Jakob is great, but his strategy would always make him vulnerable in the 1500m final and Kerr or even Nuguse are catching up on the endurance side, especially Kerr with his 8:00 2 miles and the performance at Pre. If anything, I think Kerr is the man to beat in Paris and I actually hate that guy (and like Jakob).
Did you watch the Euros 1500m (both semifinal and final) and did you watch the UK 800m trials. Who of them looked to have progressed best after the Bowerman Mile?
I think Kerr looks like he has been going backwards.
Regarding Jakob: We will know more after Monaco in 2 days time.
The "perfectly set up races" (with wavelight and pacemakers) favor his competitors more than the races favor him. Everyone is benefitting from the wavelights and his competitors are benefitting from Jakob being the pacer from normally about the 1000m mark.
But the competitors of cause still have a bigger advantage in a championship race if Jakob decides to go to the front before the 1000m mark.
An American winning, OMG what a stretch in ones imagination. This isn't 2016 and people hoping for a sprint finish in a time even the best women can eclipse!
Stop overcomplicating this by thinking if you analyze this enough you can figure it out. You can’t, that’s why the race is run. Strategy to win? Run faster than everyone else and cross the line first.
All this talk about strategies and kick but the fact of the matter is, the best runner is the one who wins the most consistently throughout many seasons against all of his competition. Jakob is that, Kerr and Nuguse are most certaintly not that. Doesn’t matter who medals in one stupid race.
What is Jakob's record in 1500 races that he didn't control the rabbits and have wavelights to race? Off the top of my head that is just championship races and maybe his last diamond league mile.
You can say what you want, but Jakob has won more races than everybody all together.
Hocker's best bet is to follow Kerr and outkick him in the stretch. If Kerr isn't up to it, then Jakob. What he can't do is be out of position with a lap to go. He has to be top 3 so he can have a clear run. Next to impossible to move up to the front while the entire field is kicking.
What is Jakob's record in 1500 races that he didn't control the rabbits and have wavelights to race? Off the top of my head that is just championship races and maybe his last diamond league mile.
You can say what you want, but Jakob has won more races than everybody all together.
It's just a very relevant observation to the Olympic 1500m final.
Hocker's best bet is to follow Kerr and outkick him in the stretch. If Kerr isn't up to it, then Jakob. What he can't do is be out of position with a lap to go. He has to be top 3 so he can have a clear run. Next to impossible to move up to the front while the entire field is kicking.
You’ve got a point here, but you’re taking it too far. Because: Where was Nordås at the bell in the 2023 WC? (Finished 0.04 sec behind Jakob, and 0.3 sec behind Kerr…).
Your analysis is spot on and yet it's getting a 2-1 downvote. Shows people are homers.
-Rojo
PS. The only hope for Nuguse is we finally see him breakthrough this week in Monaco but I haven't seen it all year. This year for him remindfs me of 2022 for Kessler. He couldn't quite replicate what he did in 2021 but he got close and then made another lead forward in 2023.
I don't think his analysis is spot on. Most everyone on this thread speaks with such great definitiveness about who's fit and who's not and who can win and who can't. There are still so many unknowns. Not everyone is going to peak perfectly/not be sick/feel great on race day/show up when it counts. The fastest guy in Monaco will not necessarily be the fastest in Paris, especially when you introduce rounds and get rid of pacemakers. And factor in final weeks of managing fitness and peaking.
If the pace is fast in the Olympic final, as everyone expects it will be, there's a not insignificant chance that Nuguse is the man that day, that he closes faster than Jakob and Josh, and holds off Hocker. Nuguse soloed the trials final and was coming back a little bit on Hocker in the last 100. If he keeps progressing through Paris he's got a real shot.
Kerr tied up and almost didn't make it out of the rounds when he won his silver. Jakob so far has a pretty blessed run at majors but is due for a stinker. Nuguse went 3:43 last year, hasn't had a bad race this year. How can you not give him reasonable odds to win?
+1
The margins are so razor thin at the highest level, it's very difficult to approach this topic with any real degree of certainty. It will come down to peaking and tactics.
Ingebrigtsen is a known quantity. Like Kiprop from 2008-2016 and Tim in 2018-2021, he has a fitness gap on the field that makes him very dangerous. But like Kiprop in 2016 and Tim in 2021, his tactics have been very poor at global championships. If he can get that part right, he can win. He simply cannot act as pacemaker for the field again, he needs to have faith in his kick (the same kick that won him Olympic gold in 2021) and burn the field over the last 600-700. There is also a world where he has leveled up in 2024, and is actually able to drop the field. If he runs 3:25 in Monaco and finishes clear of the field, I would go ahead and put in some money on the gold.
Kerr is also a very known quantity. He has very powerful acceleration in the last 200, and has improved his strength (not to Jakob's level, but much closer) to be able to compete well in a fast race after rounds. His tactics last year were good, but tbf he had a pretty easy job (just follow the blueprint set out by Wightman the year before). Overconfidence could kill him here, the fact he's been so good so early does concern me a bit. I doubt we will see much progression from Kerr in Paris, but it's possible his current fitness is enough for the gold. His best bet is a slower race, as I am still unconvinced he can run faster than 3:28-3:29.
Nuguse is a bit more unknown. He has had a few races where he looked like a gold-medal contender - 3:43 at Pre, 3:47 with a 25.xx close at Millrose, a win over Kerr in Zurich - but he seems to come up short quite a bit. I think a very fast race favors him, as he's the only one outside of Jakob I genuinely see running 3:26-3:27. If Jakob sets the pace for a race like that, Nuguse has an excellent chance of out-running him over the last 100-200. But I think any less than a 1:51 opening 800 and Nuguse will struggle.
Hocker has previously done a very good job getting it right at major championships, both in terms of peak and tactics. In 2021 he improved consistently throughout the year, dropping his best performances at NCAAs, the Trials, the Olympic semifinal, and the Olympic final. In 2023 he did the same, dropping his best performances at USAs and the Budapest final. In 2024 he is on the same track. Notably, in 2021 he had a big close to run 3:35 and win the Trials, before finishing 6th in the final in 3:31. In 2024 he had almost the exact same close (actually a bit faster, if you can believe it) to run 3:30 and win the Trials. I see him as very similar to Kerr, but a bit more likely to peak in the Olympic final. An opening 800 of 1:54+ and the door opens for him, and especially so if Jakob doesn't make a long push for home and try to run the kick out of Hocker and Kerr with a 1:46-1:47 last 800.
Kessler is a talent but he has zero chance of gold and little chance of a medal. His strategy to win a gold is to wait 4 more years.
This post was edited 48 seconds after it was posted.
The men’s 1500m is the most difficult to win. A different winner every single year. No one has 2 gold 1500m medals in their resume which makes this event the best event in track and field.
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