Join us (and sign an NIL deal) at the Penn Relays: https://forms.gle/gsUqsik5q5ChX2uH6Welcome back to the pod! On this NAU/Kiwi special episode, George catch...
What makes you say that? They both have extremely similar PRs except Kessler's very slightly faster for the 1500/Mile. Colin most likely has the better kick but Kessler has more experience, I'd say they are very even at the moment.
he can close way faster in a championship race and their pr's are a wash/cancel out
Seems like NAU is really shaping up some amazing athletes, im impressed. Id say colin has a good shot in the trials this year. Its impressive when schools can shine in multiple event groups in a single season, and not just be known for "producing great x or y runners" like how ole miss or texas a&m was known for making 800m stars. Key word "was". Great work nico and colin!
Can you elaborate on what you meant by A&M being known for making 800m stars in the past tense? They currently have the #1 and #9 800m men in the country.
I agree with you in many ways, but the reality is most 10k runners never attempt multiple 800's. Those stats are a little tainted. Don't get me wrong I do think Nico and Colin are going to be some of the best in the world. If you has to ask me why these two are running so well I have some thoughts:
They had it similar to Ingebrigtsen. They had the absolutely perfect set up. In HS they had one of the best coaches in the country setting them up for development at the elite level. Most HS kids don't have this advantage with that kind of coach and environment. It just doesn't exist. It's like running at an early age with a coach thinking about long term development to be the best possible in the world. I've heard Brosnan kept his Newbury Park team small and focused on the elites. He seemed to just piss off other HS coaches by not racing his athletes often, skipping state meets, going to altitude and doing things his way and not following the HS crowd. After HS going to NAU was a perfect transition for Colin and Nico. For some reason Brosnan and Smith have a handle on runners progression that meshes to achieve fast times. Mike Smith in a recent interview gave a lot of credit to Sean Brosnan and having his athletes prepared for elite college running physically and mentally. In HS they ran fast, but it seems it was about setting them up to handle the next high level. Most HS kids screw around and don’t get serious until they are in college. That was the opposite with these two and they are ahead of the curve .
It's true most 10k runners don't attempt multiple 800s. Several of the athletes that have run faster 10ks than Nico don't even have an 800 PB. I think Aregawi doesn't have any below 3k. For the athletes faster than Nico, I think the fastest 1500 aside from Almgren was Barega's 3:32.9, and Kejelcha's 3:31. I think Nico could run under 3:33.
I agree 100% with your 2nd paragraph. I think you're right about it being similar to Jakob's setup, and they've been training essentially like pros since they were 15-16. I don't think Brosnan tried to keep the team small, it looks like there's a pretty good number of runners in their summer videos at Big Bear, and that wouldn't have been the whole team.
Great job by Colin Sahlman. 1:45.6 to go with his 3:33.9. Only 20 yrs old. Doing a great job progressing under Smith at NAU. Happy to see this. Always thought he would be more of a mile/3k type in college. Actually a true 1500m guy.
Seems like very good pacing from both ~.6s positive splits. I can see why Grijalva and Quax were so confident in predicting Colin would make the Olympic team this year. Hocker and Nuguse are 1:46 guys. Kessler has run 1:45.8. Colin has a pretty bad lack of experience, but he is kinda on a tear. If he wins NCAAs and makes the final, I think he makes the team. Crazy to think last year he didn't even make NCAAs. Also crazy to think how weak we were last Olympics. Hocker was WAY better than everyone except Centro, and Centro didn't even make the final. Now if a college kid wants to make the team, they have to beat Nuguse (3:43/3000i world silver), Hocker (3:30/1500i world silver), and Kessler (3:48/road mile world champ/1500i world bronze).
I knew Nico had more in him after his last 800, but it's great to see him get way down into the 1:47s after being at 1:48.00. Put this and 26:52 into and it predicts a 3:48 mile from it. Suspiciously close to the 3:48 altitude conversion from earlier this year. Really makes you think, doesn't it? Also spits out a 12:48 5k and 7:59 2-mile. Hopefully his next race is a 1500 or mile. It'd be legendary if he and Colin both broke the NCAA record in the same race. And 1:47 can't be much slower than what the best 10k guys in the world can run, right?
I just checked, and since the start of 2022, no one has run a faster 800 and 10k than Nico. Pretty short list though, only like 10 names ahead of Nico in the 10k. Almgren has a 1:45 pb (he has absurd range btw), but Nico outkicked him at the 10. I know Rupp/Farah/Fisher never ran an 800 that fast. I know we're still months away from the trials, but is it crazy to talk about a medal? Grijalva hasn't done the stuff Nico is doing right now.
I agree with you in many ways, but the reality is most 10k runners never attempt multiple 800's. Those stats are a little tainted. Don't get me wrong I do think Nico and Colin are going to be some of the best in the world. If you has to ask me why these two are running so well I have some thoughts:
They had it similar to Ingebrigtsen. They had the absolutely perfect set up. In HS they had one of the best coaches in the country setting them up for development at the elite level. Most HS kids don't have this advantage with that kind of coach and environment. It just doesn't exist. It's like running at an early age with a coach thinking about long term development to be the best possible in the world. I've heard Brosnan kept his Newbury Park team small and focused on the elites. He seemed to just piss off other HS coaches by not racing his athletes often, skipping state meets, going to altitude and doing things his way and not following the HS crowd. After HS going to NAU was a perfect transition for Colin and Nico. For some reason Brosnan and Smith have a handle on runners progression that meshes to achieve fast times. Mike Smith in a recent interview gave a lot of credit to Sean Brosnan and having his athletes prepared for elite college running physically and mentally. In HS they ran fast, but it seems it was about setting them up to handle the next high level. Most HS kids screw around and don’t get serious until they are in college. That was the opposite with these two and they are ahead of the curve .
Well said. They deserve all the credit for hard work but they really had a dream situation from 9th grade through College. This is a good example of how progression can look if set it up correct with talent of course. Nico and Colin lost no years of development
who wins in a 1500 that has a pacer through 800 in 1:53.5? Does Nico run away? Or would Colin hang on?
This would be a close race. I think they're both in 3:33 shape. It would probably come down to tactics and experience, which to me would put it in Nico's favor.
Seems like NAU is really shaping up some amazing athletes, im impressed. Id say colin has a good shot in the trials this year. Its impressive when schools can shine in multiple event groups in a single season, and not just be known for "producing great x or y runners" like how ole miss or texas a&m was known for making 800m stars. Key word "was". Great work nico and colin!
Can you elaborate on what you meant by A&M being known for making 800m stars in the past tense? They currently have the #1 and #9 800m men in the country.
Brandon Miller, Devon Dixon, Athing Mu, as well as a strong middle distance group on the men and womens side picking up conference titles in the 600, 800, and 4x4. Astonishing 2021 and 2022 seasons.
Both Colin Sahlman and Nico Young both get a confidence boost from this outing. Sahlman's 1:45 applies to the requisite needed to run 3:30-31. For Nico, this is necessary to solidify 3:34 speed which translates really well for 5000 and 10000 end-of-the-race "speed". I think he should do a 1500 just to do it now, strike the grid iron while hot.
I know I recommended Nico get more confidence at the 800/1500 distances while prepping for the Trials & Games. He now officially has my vote to get to the Games with his speed progress.
Can you elaborate on what you meant by A&M being known for making 800m stars in the past tense? They currently have the #1 and #9 800m men in the country.
Brandon Miller, Devon Dixon, Athing Mu, as well as a strong middle distance group on the men and womens side picking up conference titles in the 600, 800, and 4x4. Astonishing 2021 and 2022 seasons.
Sam Whitmarsh has already run faster than Miller and Dixon ever have. They just won the 4x4 and 4x8 at Penn Relays. The 4x8 team broke the school record.
They have the #2 and #10 guys at 400, and they have #3 and #11 at 110 hurdles. As a team, the men are ranked #1. The women are ranked #3.
Mu is a true generational talent. Hard to compare anyone to her. That said, I believe Roisin Willis and Juliette Whittaker would be faring much better if they had gone to A&M rather than Stanford.
Those guys were good but when all the guys are back and all but Centro and Engels are considerably better than they were, that's a tougher team to make. Engels is actually running better at this point than in many years and Centro is ahead of where he was at the same time of year, but they aren't the point here because Nuguse was a 3:34 guy then and is a 3:28/3:43 guy now, Hocker was a 3:35 guy then and didn't run 3:31 until the Olympics and is now a 3:30 guy and world indoor silver medalist, Kessler was a 3:34 guy and now is a 3:32 guy with a 1:45.8, and you've got Sahlman with 1:45.6/3:33.9 in NCAA competition, winning both races and therefore capable of running 3:30-31 this year as well. So, the field's massively improved.
Can you elaborate on what you meant by A&M being known for making 800m stars in the past tense? They currently have the #1 and #9 800m men in the country.
Brandon Miller, Devon Dixon, Athing Mu, as well as a strong middle distance group on the men and womens side picking up conference titles in the 600, 800, and 4x4. Astonishing 2021 and 2022 seasons.
It’s improved but Rojo’s general point is correct. In 2021, let’s say Nuguse was conservatively in 3:32 shape. He soloed a 3:34 and closed a 3:35 in 1:49. He beat Engels who’d just run 3:33. This year 3rd place will probably be in 3:31 shape unless Kessler (or someone else) makes another leap. If not it’s mostly more depth to make the team because instead of 2 guys for the last spot it could be 4-6 (Kessler, Teare, Sahlmam, UW guys). Assuredly not everyone will be on their game by then. And yes the top 2 are better now.
This post was edited 59 seconds after it was posted.
Brandon Miller, Devon Dixon, Athing Mu, as well as a strong middle distance group on the men and womens side picking up conference titles in the 600, 800, and 4x4. Astonishing 2021 and 2022 seasons.
Sam Whitmarsh has already run faster than Miller and Dixon ever have. They just won the 4x4 and 4x8 at Penn Relays. The 4x8 team broke the school record.
They have the #2 and #10 guys at 400, and they have #3 and #11 at 110 hurdles. As a team, the men are ranked #1. The women are ranked #3.
Mu is a true generational talent. Hard to compare anyone to her. That said, I believe Roisin Willis and Juliette Whittaker would be faring much better if they had gone to A&M rather than Stanford.
Damn! And I agree, Willis would be better suited as an aggie.
In 2021 Hocker ran 1:46.3 and 13:18 in his NCAA season, then ran a 3:35 race at NCAAs with a 1:48.8 last 800m. So far Colin has run 1:45.6 and 13:38 with a 3:33.9 race at Bryan Clay. Just off that they seem to be pretty similar (Colin has a bit more anaerobic ability while Cole has more strength).
Look , I'm super pumped by Sahlman but we need to be factual.
Pretty similar? I think that's a stretch.
At this point in his NCAA career, Hocker had already won the mile and 3000 at NCAAs - with both races coming on the same day when he beat a fresh Cooper Teare in the latter.
Colin Sahlman was 6th at NCAA indoors - he needs to finish 6th in the Olympics to equal Hocker.
By this point in the outdoor season in 2021, Hocker had already run an impressive 800 - winning the Hayward Premier on April 2, presumably in shitty weather in Eugene in 1:46.60 crushing 1:45.05 man Festus Lagat by half a second, and run 13:19.
Sahlman may be a little bit better at 800 but Hocker's endurance seems miles better.