At what point do you look at a performance and say "Yeah, he's gotta be doping."

These thresholds should never be broken. I saw a toddler at a fun run absolutely destroy the field recently. He was obviously juiced. Yet the race organizers did not drug test him. And even if they did, it wouldn't have caught him. The tests never work. Let's set up some performance barriers and then just disqualify anyone who beats them. It's the only fair way.

Straw man. The post you respond to above is obviously referring to elites and pros.

Moves like a donkey? Hassan. Then there was the guy who came second to Rudisha in London.

This is hilarious. You morons have no clue, no education, NOTHING. It's pure guesswork. It usually has more to do with person's nationality or skin color than anything actually objective. Your doping accusations are nothing more than "feels over reals".

Even if you go only with your 15 s for the 5,000 (Schumacher said, up to 1 minute for 10,000), this does not work well.
5000 m world top times
1 14:00.21 Gudaf TSEGAY
2 14:05.20 Faith KIPYEGON
3 14:05.92 Beatrice CHEBET
4 14:06.62 Letesenbet GIDEY
5 14:11.15 Tirunesh DIBABA
6 14:12.59 Almaz AYANA
7 14:12.88 Meseret DEFAR
8 14:12.98 Ejgayehu TAYE
9 14:13.42 Sifan HASSAN
That means each of these 9 women could break 14 IF they are currently clean and now start doping (or have broken in case of T. Dibaba). Imaging the temptation. All of them clean? They are all originally from Kenya/Ethiopia, countries most likely to dope according to World Athletics.

Doesn’t look much better here:
1 14:19.45 Alicia MONSON – trained by doper Salazar’s Ritz
2 14:23.92 Shelby HOULIHAN – banned doper
3 14:26.34 Karissa SCHWEIZER – banned doper’s friend + teammate
4 14:33.17 Elise CRANNY – banned doper’s friend + teammate
5 14:38.92 Shannon ROWBURY – trained by doper Salazar
Hard to imagine that Schweizer was clean, and could run 14:11! Or Monson 14:05??
And last but not least, we know that lots of fast and very successful women dope, from Chepchirchir to Houlihan to Jebet to Jeptoo to Sumgong, to name just a handful.

Hmmm…times are definitely something to look for, especially if they are massive improvements. I also look at teams or countries that suddenly have big jumps. Look at Jamaica in the world 100 rankings (men and women). Between 2006 and 2009 they went from having a few on the list to dominating the list. Also, 9.69 easing up at 80 meters was the most suspect thing I’ve ever seen.

Chinese women’s distance running (Ma’s Army) also super suspect. From not on the radar at all to having multiple athletes in the top 10 all-time list in multiple events.

Oh, also…Tobi Amusan’s Eugene worlds was a close second for most suspect performance (from 12:42 to 12.12…). World records don’t just get destroyed, especially by someone with a logarithmic improvement.

The whole leading pack in Boston this year, omg.

that there are tons of cheats out there. BUT: all the posters in this thread making up rules like: within 2% of world record is suspicious, within 1% is probably cheating etc. is just making stuff up and wasting their time.

Just assume that everybody (and I mean everybody) is doping - disqualify all competitors before they even race. Then you are bound to catch the cheaters. That some innocents are caught up in that is just the price you pay for clean sport.

Otherwise let the anti-doping bodies do their job (given the restrictions they face in doing it) and just shut about it for once. THAT is what makes this place a cesspool - all the posters pretending that they know better. No you don't - and that means you Army.

good question.

im ambivalent.

i used to believe that sub 3.30 (1500 m) was only doable with PEDs. i have read a lot of running history and my take is that herb elliot (prolly the most talented 1500 m runner) ran 1500 m at 3.36 on cinder track which wud roughly equal to 3.30 maybe slightly better with todays supershoes too. so that my standpoint and starting point.

but then when my swedish countrymen (almgren, berglund, kramer) produce fast times i begin to doubt if im correct.

im pretty sure the above mentioned guys are clean (not 100% sure tho!) and while they are wickedly talented they are by no means outstanding in the top elite group.

my take is if a guy like almgren can run 3.32/26.50ish/59ish then there should be people (with more talent) that could run faster without PEDs.

For ex rudisha, kipketer, cheptegei, kiplimo, ingebrigtsen (altho i believe ingebrigtsen is more a training-product than pure talent) and a bunch of kenyans and ethiopians on the longer distances.

But again, then u read of busted kenyans (again n again) and u begin to doubt again...evil circle this sport brings u into...

40 yr old masters runners who are more consistent and better than ever like Sara Hall, Keira D'Amato, or K. Bekele.

Ey, you from Tacoma?

I assume anyone who wins a race where there are participants certain to have been doping is probably a doper. How is a non-doper going to beat a hoard of dopers, magic?

Different sport, but when the athlete's name begins with a P, ends with an R, and has an OGACA in the middle, he's doped.

For anyone thinking Hassan or Amos move like a donkey, I would urge you to start watching races frame by frame or at .25x speed if only watching on YouTube.

Additionally, Hassan of all people has the archetypical runners body for a female distance runner: 5'7" 108lbs with 1:56 800 speed

What was your reason to start being suspicious at 13:10? Did you run yourself that fast and think faster is not possible? Or just random?

Amazing. So if a woman beats you in a race, that means you must be a woman too? How would man loose to a woman, impossible?!

If it was a brown or black skinned person. Or if it was a l!beral.