VALBY VS MARKEZICH NCAA 3k Championship!

Agree - I think the 3k is short enough (and Markezich is good enough) that she'll do a sit and kick on Valby in the 3k. Markezich for the win in the 3k.

However, the 5k is all Valby's..can't see anyone challenging her there.

I thought it was just that time for males? I saw her race at BU, but Markezich looks to be above average height, maybe about 5'8-5'9". She also has good barrier form and the barriers for women are lower as well (36' vs 30') so I think it'd be less. As an example, Coburn has run 8:39 3000 flat (indoor) and 9:02 steeple.

Recent 3K indoor championships have been the "gradually turn up the volume then kick" variety of race. I don't think PV can win that scenario. She'll need to set an 8:30 pace and hope to drop everyone.

I would pick Valby. I don't care about adjustments. She rarely loses.

It's like the ones who thought it was smart money to wager against Hassan in a marathon.

8:30 is fast - about the same pace as her recent 1600 leg in which admittedly went out too fast. But also almost twice the distance. So she would need to hit the pace pretty much exactly from the get go I think.

Remember what happened the last time people picked Valby to lose. Despite all of their certainty, it didn't end well.

Final entries posted. Valby entered in 5K and 3K. Not listed as member of DMR. Also, Florida freshman miler, Khan, in men's final.

If her top speed is really 4:31 for 1600m there is no way that she could run 8:30. So, she is either a lot faster at the mile than what she has shown or 8:30 isn't happening (for now)

I feel like both your points are correct: 1) Valby is faster at the mile than she has shown and 2) 8:30 isn’t happening.

That would be a 12 second PR for her. I think something around 8:34 is more realistic.

some perspective on 8:30. Morgan ran that with prs of 4:05 (1500) and 15:02 (5000). So did Alem who ran 29:59 (10000). Monson did that in 2022 and ran 4:07 (1500) and 14:31 (5000) that year. So it is fast.

Morgan's 15:02 PR was likely an underperformance as well. She had been dealing with knee issues during that time which disrupted her training (which she had surgery for last fall).

More perspective: 8:30 or faster indoors would be top 6 all time US, (top 25 all time worldwide). Morgan, Houlihan, Quigley, Schweizer, ESP, Monson have gone that fast and all had 4:24 or faster mile times.

Valby has only run 3 races in college shorter than 5k and the only one that had sub-9 minute 3k performers in it was last winter where Valby finished 5th, behind a 4:31 canadian miler named erin teschuk. Her big scalps that day are Alexandra Carlson from rutgers and Emma Grace Hurley. Even her SEC victory was from a different heat than the other top finishers. Smart money is she either doesn't race or executes poorly in the 3k.

Doc, Valby was injured last indoor season and was out for a long time after that 3k. She still looked bad late into outdoors but came around enough to win a Tuohy-less 5000m final and then had an absolutely dominant xc season, no longer limping, followed by an easy, tempo-like 14:56 in December. The real question is what kind of health and shape she has been in this winter. She then went 2 1/2 months without competing before soloing 8:42 last week (after the first three minutes), which already puts her close to Markezich's pr, after a 4:31 DMR leg where no other team was close enough to push her. So, it's hard to say but I would assume that she is in shape to run mid 8:30s at least with a fast American field, so assuming she pushes the pace the whole way, Markezich will have to be all out to stick with her up to the kick. And in the 5000m, unless the Kenyan (Lemngole?) with the 14:40 road pr is at that level and in the race, Valby should be way out in front of the field.

Did everyone know that Olivia's father, Ron, won the Milrose HS mile back in 1985?

Sounds about right. Until I see Valby standing on the start line, I'll assume a 3k scratch is forthcoming. A hard 5 followed by a punishing 3 24 hrs later seems like a recipe for injury at worst and an unnecessary risk at best. Fresh Valby vs fresh Markezich is a 50/50 affair at this distance. Valby with a 5k in her legs vs Markezich off a DMR shifts the odds significantly.

I didn't know that but did know that he competed for Notre Dame in the mid to late 80s.