I guess this maximizes Olympic Standard potential since more people can stick closer to the pacers?
That's what I am thinking. Looking at the seed times it looks like both heats have 8 guys in the 13:05-13:15 range. Depending on how the races turn out, a lot of them could be finishing right around 13:05, and navigating the traffic could cost them if all of them were in one heat!
Hopefully both heats run quick, although I wouldn't be shocked to see one heat be a lot more aggressive over the last 2k while the other heat sticks to the 13:05 goal pace until the last lap.
U.S. indoor 3000m and mile record holder Yared Nuguse will be racing his first indoor 5000m at Boston University against a stacked field, including Woody Kincaid.
CITIUS MAG: I remember a few years ago when Bowerman went to BU, they split the top guys into two heats. Would you prefer if Woody, Yared and Joe are all in the same heat? DATHAN RITZENHEIN: I think we’ll see split heats. I’m pretty sure. There are so many bodies that you’re going to have good races just splitting the fields. It’s going to be hard to justify who is not in one of those races. I don’t envy the BU guys’ jobs at all. They get so many people coming to these races and knowing this track is super fast. They have a very hard job with a lot of coaches calling and wanting to get their guys in this race or that race. We’re happy to be there. I think everyone will look at the fields and say, ‘Yep. It’s fair across the boards. Doesn’t matter which section you’re in. This is going to be fast.”
-This isn't a record attempt, it's an attempt to hit the standard. I still think it will get exciting as once these guys are 4 laps out on 13:05 pace, it'll turn into every man for himself.
Yeah 2 heats with everyone distributed is a really weird choice.
You could have a sub 13:10 heat and then a heat with all the other guys and still have about the same number of participants in each heat.
I guess this maximizes Olympic Standard potential since more people can stick closer to the pacers?
Could you fit all the sub-13:10 guys, and guys like McDonald, Mills, Beamish, Young, Jacobs, and Lumb, who are all supposedly in shape to chase the standard, in one heat?
All these guys are going specifically to chase the standard. Maybe if Nuguse or Kincaid feel great, they could chase the AR, but it's being paced really slow if that's the goal. I think they'll both be won in a bit under 13, with a bunch of people right under the standard. If they ran one heat, they'd be trying to fit twice as many people in the same 3-4s span, on an indoor track.
I'm kinda disappointed that MSE and OAC are split into different heats, but on the bright side, each heat on its own is one of the best 5k fields the US has ever seen. If I'm guessing, that probably just makes it the most fair. I'm sure everyone wanted to be in a heat with either Nuguse, Klecker, Kincaid, and Nur.
. . . I'm kinda disappointed that MSE and OAC are split into different heats, but on the bright side, each heat on its own is one of the best 5k fields the US has ever seen. If I'm guessing, that probably just makes it the most fair. I'm sure everyone wanted to be in a heat with either Nuguse, Klecker, Kincaid, and Nur.
7:51/3k projects to exactly 13:05/5k (62.8/400, 2:37/k).
Getting to 3k in 7:51 should be the easy part.
However, when the rabbits drop off, someone(s) in each race is going to have to play Ky Robinson's sacrificial lamb role from last month and keep running 62.8s for the 4th kilo. This is the hard part -- although, since winning the heat is far less important/of no importance vs getting the 13:05 Oly Q, there should be no shortage of runners willing to do so.
If they can get to 4k in 10:28, then kicking the last k in, say, 2:30 (61/60/29) would stop the clock at 12:58.
We know Woody can close the final 200 in sub-27 . . . but not sure anyone else can.
Frankly, if they diligently stick to 13:05 pace thru 4k, there should be a few Oly Qs from both heats . . . with winning times around 12:55 . . .
Surprised nobody has mentioned the possibility of a world record. Woody came within 2 seconds of it last year on this track, and this year's version is way more stacked. The prescribed pace might be a bit too slow through 3k for it to be possible, but if they are a second or two quicker than that, I would not be surprised if a couple of these guys approach the low 12:50s.
Surprised nobody has mentioned the possibility of a world record. Woody came within 2 seconds of it last year on this track, and this year's version is way more stacked. The prescribed pace might be a bit too slow through 3k for it to be possible, but if they are a second or two quicker than that, I would not be surprised if a couple of these guys approach the low 12:50s.
Even more surprised we're 3 pages in and no one has stated the obvious:
Surprised nobody has mentioned the possibility of a world record. Woody came within 2 seconds of it last year on this track, and this year's version is way more stacked. The prescribed pace might be a bit too slow through 3k for it to be possible, but if they are a second or two quicker than that, I would not be surprised if a couple of these guys approach the low 12:50s.
Even more surprised we're 3 pages in and no one has stated the obvious:
Not a single Bowerman athlete racing.
Jerry’s redshirting them all for the 2028 Olympics.
In case you're wondering why there are two heats...
Meet management said no one was interested in chasing the AR and that the 13:05 Olympic standard was the priority (none of the Americans in the field have it yet). So there will be two heats, both targeting 13:05. https://t.co/SCSgE1gx5N
I'll go with 12:53 for Nuguse (running up from his best distance) and 13:02 for Nico Young.
I think this could be close. I like 13:02 for Young, and I predict that by the end of the day we’ll be at three collegians between 13:02 and 13:04.99 this indoor season. I’ll take Nuguse for the win over Klecker, 12:55 to 12:56 in the “scarlet heat” and Nur in 12:58 to win the “white light/white heat.”
I'll predict the winning time for each heat at right about 13 flat. There's guys who probably could run faster, but it sounds like all they really care about for this race is getting under 13:05 and they have other races this indoor season that are more important for them.
is there prize money for winning? I am sure most people do not care about the position they end as long as they meet the standard. why risk anything, the olympic norm is almost or even better than the national records in some country. it is hard enough.
is there prize money for winning? I am sure most people do not care about the position they end as long as they meet the standard. why risk anything, the olympic norm is almost or even better than the national records in some country. it is hard enough.
What is the contract bonus and trickle-down windfall from an 🇺🇸 record?
I see Yared 12:52, Joe 12:53 Other Sub-13s in that heat: Beamish 12:57, Mills 12:59 McDonald, Flanagan, Hacker, Raess narrowly hit standard
Other heat: Woody 12:57, Nur 12:58, Wildschutt 12:59 Nico and Ky Robinson 13:00, Beadlescomb and Jacobs 13:01 Atkin hits standard
Will be there, should be fun
Interesting. I have a hard time seeing Beamish as a 12:57 guy and I’m not sure if Mills has sub-13 strength at this point but who knows. I like the Wildschutt sub-13. It seems to me like you’re relatively sleeping on Garcia Romo: I assume he was seeded 12:58 (just 3 seconds behind Nuguse) for a reason.
Interesting. I have a hard time seeing Beamish as a 12:57 guy and I’m not sure if Mills has sub-13 strength at this point but who knows. I like the Wildschutt sub-13. It seems to me like you’re relatively sleeping on Garcia Romo: I assume he was seeded 12:58 (just 3 seconds behind Nuguse) for a reason.
Rationale:
-Beamish is running way more than ever. 90+ mpw, consistency he’s never had. I think he’s run 13:11 on 80% training, and now he’s in a different spot.
-Mills a bit of a hunch, but I think he’s got range to 5,000
-Mario my theory is that he straddles the line of overtraining through doing everything with Yared, which is why he doesn’t knock out early races as much, but then when he backs off he runs great. I think he might come in a bit tired.
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