Grant Fisher has arguably the best kick in this entire group when you consider his last 1600m en route to his indoor 5k in 2022 was a 3:57 close. He can absolutely shut it down with a 53 last lap. I agree with you that this will likely be a tactical race that could be won in 13:15- 13:30 so this will be a kicker’s race, and if the race were held today I’m taking Fisher.
Grant Fisher has arguably the best kick in this entire group when you consider his last 1600m en route to his indoor 5k in 2022 was a 3:57 close. He can absolutely shut it down with a 53 last lap. I agree with you that this will likely be a tactical race that could be won in 13:15- 13:30 so this will be a kicker’s race, and if the race were held today I’m taking Fisher.
The OP predicts multiple guys running having mid 12:50s, or faster ability, and some of you are predicting a win as slow as 13:30? Off of a pace that slow a pace, Klecker and Kincaid will out kick Fisher and he probably wouldn’t make the team. Fisher isn’t the only potential runner in the field that needs a fast pace to have a chance. What makes him the best runner is his strength, and he’s going to use it.
We are blessed to even have this conversation with so many names. Proven runners and new talent. Very exciting indeed. WHAT IF: Mr. Naguse decides to join in after the 1500? Not a 1 trick pony for sure.
Both those records are soft compared to the outdoor 2 mile and 5000 records. Kincaid nearly broke the indoor 5000 record last year; he finished 9th at the Trials.
“Soft” world records. How close would you be to them tough guy?
From reading your posts, it is clear you aren’t a Grant Fisher fan. Are you jealous?
Grant Fisher is the best distance runner in the US and our best hope to medal at the Olympics in Paris.
He along with two others will be representing the USA.
I am a fan. He may well make the team, but a slow, tactical race is not best for him. And Yared Nuguse is the best distance runner in the US.
Grant Fisher has arguably the best kick in this entire group when you consider his last 1600m en route to his indoor 5k in 2022 was a 3:57 close. He can absolutely shut it down with a 53 last lap. I agree with you that this will likely be a tactical race that could be won in 13:15- 13:30 so this will be a kicker’s race, and if the race were held today I’m taking Fisher.
The OP predicts multiple guys running having mid 12:50s, or faster ability, and some of you are predicting a win as slow as 13:30? Off of a pace that slow a pace, Klecker and Kincaid will out kick Fisher and he probably wouldn’t make the team.
This is my point exactly. So Fisher needs a fast pace to prevail. We are in complete agreement on this at least.
Grant Fisher has arguably the best kick in this entire group when you consider his last 1600m en route to his indoor 5k in 2022 was a 3:57 close. He can absolutely shut it down with a 53 last lap. I agree with you that this will likely be a tactical race that could be won in 13:15- 13:30 so this will be a kicker’s race, and if the race were held today I’m taking Fisher.
The OP predicts multiple guys running having mid 12:50s, or faster ability, and some of you are predicting a win as slow as 13:30? Off of a pace that slow a pace, Klecker and Kincaid will out kick Fisher and he probably wouldn’t make the team. Fisher isn’t the only potential runner in the field that needs a fast pace to have a chance. What makes him the best runner is his strength, and he’s going to use it.
He also ran 3:34.99i and 3:36 with one shoe in the last lap early last year. He’s probably a 3:49-3:50 miler in peak shape.
He made both the 5k and 10k teams in ‘21 and ‘22 and was the top U.S. finisher in 3/4 of those events at the global championships. I don’t know why the OP seems to think he can’t compete in U.S. championships. If the pace is slow enough he could close in 53, and he’s shown the willingness to make his move from 3-4 laps out on multiple occasions. If they run 8:30 for the first 3k, he still has as good a chance to win as anyone with his 7:25 3k chops.
The winning time at the OT is likely to be 13:10-13:30, but the last 1600 will be under 4 and a 53 probably won’t be necessary to make the team.
Grant Fisher has arguably the best kick in this entire group when you consider his last 1600m en route to his indoor 5k in 2022 was a 3:57 close. He can absolutely shut it down with a 53 last lap. I agree with you that this will likely be a tactical race that could be won in 13:15- 13:30 so this will be a kicker’s race, and if the race were held today I’m taking Fisher.
If there are three or more guys with Fisher at 4800 meters, he won't make the team.
The OP predicts multiple guys running having mid 12:50s, or faster ability, and some of you are predicting a win as slow as 13:30? Off of a pace that slow a pace, Klecker and Kincaid will out kick Fisher and he probably wouldn’t make the team. Fisher isn’t the only potential runner in the field that needs a fast pace to have a chance. What makes him the best runner is his strength, and he’s going to use it.
He also ran 3:34.99i and 3:36 with one shoe in the last lap early last year. He’s probably a 3:49-3:50 miler in peak shape.
He made both the 5k and 10k teams in ‘21 and ‘22 and was the top U.S. finisher in 3/4 of those events at the global championships. I don’t know why the OP seems to think he can’t compete in U.S. championships. If the pace is slow enough he could close in 53, and he’s shown the willingness to make his move from 3-4 laps out on multiple occasions. If they run 8:30 for the first 3k, he still has as good a chance to win as anyone with his 7:25 3k chops.
The winning time at the OT is likely to be 13:10-13:30, but the last 1600 will be under 4 and a 53 probably won’t be necessary to make the team.
Your prediction is not based on reality. 13:30 with a 4:00 finish would include running the first 3400m at 14:00 pace. The top guys could approach their mile PRs off of that pace. It would be the 5000m version of the Rio 1500m.
Fisher has proved he can set a fast pace and win from the front, and he’s going to do just that.
He made both the 5k and 10k teams in ‘21 and ‘22 and was the top U.S. finisher in 3/4 of those events at the global championships. I don’t know why the OP seems to think he can’t compete in U.S. championships. If the pace is slow enough he could close in 53, and he’s shown the willingness to make his move from 3-4 laps out on multiple occasions. If they run 8:30 for the first 3k, he still has as good a chance to win as anyone with his 7:25 3k chops.
It isn't 2022 anymore. Yared Nuguse was an also-ran in the USATF 1500 in 2022 (11th place). Things change!
The main thing is: The field is much more competitive now. Nur and Teare pose a much greater threat to Fisher now than they did two years ago. In a slow race, I don't think Fisher has the top-end speed to outkick either of them over the last 200 meters. Kincaid, Chelimo, and Klecker have all demonstrated the ability to outkick Fisher. Blanks has a great kick too. Fisher's best chance is to move with 3-4 laps to go (or even further out), but this is a strategy that carries its own risks. For Fisher to succeed with a long drive like this (essentially serving as a rabbit for everyone else in the race), he will have to be ~10 seconds better than the rest of the field. And I don't think he is. Kincaid ran 12:51 last year. Klecker and Fisher ran 12:54. And there are a half dozen other guys knocking on the door of sub-13.
"If they run 8:30 for the first 3k, he still has as good a chance to win as anyone with his 7:25 3k chops." I agree with this but what if they go through 3k in 8:40 or 8:50? If so, things get a lot more complicated for Fisher.
Fisher has proved he can set a fast pace and win from the front, and he’s going to do just that.
He hasn't proved it. With the exception of one race, he has lost every national championship in both the 5000 and 10000 in the last three years. He has been outkicked by Chelimo, Klecker, Kincaid.
It isn't 2022 anymore. Yared Nuguse was an also-ran in the USATF 1500 in 2022 (11th place). Things change!
The main thing is: The field is much more competitive now. Nur and Teare pose a much greater threat to Fisher now than they did two years ago. In a slow race, I don't think Fisher has the top-end speed to outkick either of them over the last 200 meters. Kincaid, Chelimo, and Klecker have all demonstrated the ability to outkick Fisher. Blanks has a great kick too. Fisher's best chance is to move with 3-4 laps to go (or even further out), but this is a strategy that carries its own risks. For Fisher to succeed with a long drive like this (essentially serving as a rabbit for everyone else in the race), he will have to be ~10 seconds better than the rest of the field. And I don't think he is. Kincaid ran 12:51 last year. Klecker and Fisher ran 12:54. And there are a half dozen other guys knocking on the door of sub-13.
"If they run 8:30 for the first 3k, he still has as good a chance to win as anyone with his 7:25 3k chops." I agree with this but what if they go through 3k in 8:40 or 8:50? If so, things get a lot more complicated for Fisher.
This thread has moved past crazy. The field is not going to run 4:45 mile pace for the first 3000m. Soon the question will be, “What if the they walk the first 3000m?”
It isn't 2022 anymore. Yared Nuguse was an also-ran in the USATF 1500 in 2022 (11th place). Things change!
The main thing is: The field is much more competitive now. Nur and Teare pose a much greater threat to Fisher now than they did two years ago. In a slow race, I don't think Fisher has the top-end speed to outkick either of them over the last 200 meters. Kincaid, Chelimo, and Klecker have all demonstrated the ability to outkick Fisher. Blanks has a great kick too. Fisher's best chance is to move with 3-4 laps to go (or even further out), but this is a strategy that carries its own risks. For Fisher to succeed with a long drive like this (essentially serving as a rabbit for everyone else in the race), he will have to be ~10 seconds better than the rest of the field. And I don't think he is. Kincaid ran 12:51 last year. Klecker and Fisher ran 12:54. And there are a half dozen other guys knocking on the door of sub-13.
"If they run 8:30 for the first 3k, he still has as good a chance to win as anyone with his 7:25 3k chops." I agree with this but what if they go through 3k in 8:40 or 8:50? If so, things get a lot more complicated for Fisher.
This thread has moved past crazy. The field is not going to run 4:45 mile pace for the first 3000m. Soon the question will be, “What if the they walk the first 3000m?”
Sorry, I misspoke. I confused 2 miles with 3000 meters!
This thread has moved past crazy. The field is not going to run 4:45 mile pace for the first 3000m. Soon the question will be, “What if the they walk the first 3000m?”
Sorry, I misspoke. I confused 2 miles with 3000 meters!
It was considered a crawl when the 1972 5000m went out in 8:56, and at the time, the 5000m WR was 40 seconds slower than now.
He also ran 3:34.99i and 3:36 with one shoe in the last lap early last year. He’s probably a 3:49-3:50 miler in peak shape.
He made both the 5k and 10k teams in ‘21 and ‘22 and was the top U.S. finisher in 3/4 of those events at the global championships. I don’t know why the OP seems to think he can’t compete in U.S. championships. If the pace is slow enough he could close in 53, and he’s shown the willingness to make his move from 3-4 laps out on multiple occasions. If they run 8:30 for the first 3k, he still has as good a chance to win as anyone with his 7:25 3k chops.
The winning time at the OT is likely to be 13:10-13:30, but the last 1600 will be under 4 and a 53 probably won’t be necessary to make the team.
Your prediction is not based on reality. 13:30 with a 4:00 finish would include running the first 3400m at 14:00 pace. The top guys could approach their mile PRs off of that pace. It would be the 5000m version of the Rio 1500m.
Fisher has proved he can set a fast pace and win from the front, and he’s going to do just that.
13:10-13:30 range with a sub-4 last 1600 is my broad prediction, and it’s entirely based on reality and years of following this sport very closely. Look at the recent OT 5k winning times the OP has posted twice. Consider the 2023 U.S. championships when the race was won in 13:24 with the final 1600 in approximately 4:00 flat—the second 1600m of the race was run in 4:30.82 for the leader, 14:06 5k pace.
Plenty of championship races start at a dawdle; the fact that you say it would be “the 5000m version of the Rio 1500” speaks to the depth of your knowledge on the subject. How about the 2015 World Championship 5k, when the race was won in 13:50 off 9:54 for the first 3400m (14:33 pace). How about the 2013 U.S. Championship 5k, when Lagat outkicked Rupp as both clocked 14:54? How about the 14:30/16:45 first 5k splits the men and women ran in last year’s U.S. Championship 10ks? These things happen all the time dude.
13:15ish off an 8:15ish first 3k seems most likely to me but yeah, it could dawdle more than that. Maybe someone will set an honest pace early but that’s the uncommon exception.
Your prediction is not based on reality. 13:30 with a 4:00 finish would include running the first 3400m at 14:00 pace. The top guys could approach their mile PRs off of that pace. It would be the 5000m version of the Rio 1500m.
Fisher has proved he can set a fast pace and win from the front, and he’s going to do just that.
13:10-13:30 range with a sub-4 last 1600 is my broad prediction, and it’s entirely based on reality and years of following this sport very closely. Look at the recent OT 5k winning times the OP has posted twice. Consider the 2023 U.S. championships when the race was won in 13:24 with the final 1600 in approximately 4:00 flat—the second 1600m of the race was run in 4:30.82 for the leader, 14:06 5k pace.
Plenty of championship races start at a dawdle; the fact that you say it would be “the 5000m version of the Rio 1500” speaks to the depth of your knowledge on the subject. How about the 2015 World Championship 5k, when the race was won in 13:50 off 9:54 for the first 3400m (14:33 pace). How about the 2013 U.S. Championship 5k, when Lagat outkicked Rupp as both clocked 14:54? How about the 14:30/16:45 first 5k splits the men and women ran in last year’s U.S. Championship 10ks? These things happen all the time dude.
13:15ish off an 8:15ish first 3k seems most likely to me but yeah, it could dawdle more than that. Maybe someone will set an honest pace early but that’s the uncommon exception.
Fisher is the best 5000m runner in U.S. history. If he sets a fast pace, he has close to a 100% chance of making the team. Under some or your scenarios, it’s going to be a roll of the dice. Again, there will be other guys in the race who’s only chance to make the team, is for there to be a fast pace.
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