What has Cheptegei run? 26:11. Hasn't Jakob handled him rather easily in 5k races?
I would guess you would believe that Hicham would have defeated Kenenisa @ 10000m, which might have happened if the pace was slower than 27 minutes. But of course you probably think Hicham could have run 26:25 or so, and you would be incorrect.
I don't recall Hicham handling Bekele rather easily twice at 5k.
Tough call...but someone should make this race happen ,perhaps in Hangello in june 2024.My money is on Kiptum. On many occasions I have made the observation that his demeanour is different from the typical Kenyan athlete.He is assertive and mean when he races and doesn't take prisoners. I think Jakob cannot intimidate him like he normally does the rest of the competition in his race.
No way either of them run an all out 10000m during their buildup for the Olympics.
What has Cheptegei run? 26:11. Hasn't Jakob handled him rather easily in 5k races?
They have only raced 5000 twice, and yes, Jakob won. But El G also handled Bekele pretty easily in 5000 races but that didn't mean El G could run 26:10 (or even 12:37, necessarily).
When did El G easily beat Bekele at 5k? I remember him edging Bekele in epic battles at 5k in 2003 WC and 2004 OG.
From all the preceding generations I do think only Aouita with a few others were really naturally a freak. Just look at the way Aouita was running as if he was born for this task and he was running as breathing.
Now you can see some like ArmstrongIsliv or Coevett throwing doping accusation ... that's pure hatred and jealousy.
If you want really judge a runner compare the difficulty of environment he raised from.
Now when you look at the influence and impact he made (generation Morceli, El Guerrouj, Skah; Hissou Salah...) you can be sure he was the greater.
This post was edited 1 minute after it was posted.
I don't think there's any scenario where Kelvin wouldn't push from the front, because otherwise he has zero chance if Jakob is in control of the race. It would all come down to who's in control; if Kelvin for whatever reason let Jakob take the pace it's over for him. But if he's pushing from the front he'd have to have dropped Jakob by like 4 or 5 miles in. I just don't think that would happen.
They both can probably run like 26:20 or so but I feel like in any scenario the distance is short enough that Jakob could probably adjust to it better than Kelvin would - 10k is a massive drop from the marathon, not nearly as much moving up from 5k. In addition, Jakob obviously have tons of cross country experience and has run a 10k on the roads before (which was a comfortable win for him in like 27:54 I think).
They'd both have to adjust to the distance but I think Jakob would have an easier adjustment, since it's so much closer to his wheel house than Kelvin's. Either way this needs to happen! I'd love to be proved wrong haha.
I don't think there's any scenario where Kelvin wouldn't push from the front, because otherwise he has zero chance if Jakob is in control of the race. It would all come down to who's in control; if Kelvin for whatever reason let Jakob take the pace it's over for him. But if he's pushing from the front he'd have to have dropped Jakob by like 4 or 5 miles in. I just don't think that would happen.
They both can probably run like 26:20 or so but I feel like in any scenario the distance is short enough that Jakob could probably adjust to it better than Kelvin would - 10k is a massive drop from the marathon, not nearly as much moving up from 5k. In addition, Jakob obviously have tons of cross country experience and has run a 10k on the roads before (which was a comfortable win for him in like 27:54 I think).
They'd both have to adjust to the distance but I think Jakob would have an easier adjustment, since it's so much closer to his wheel house than Kelvin's. Either way this needs to happen! I'd love to be proved wrong haha.
Also forgot to mention that I don't think the outcome would be different whether it be on the track or road.
From all the preceding generations I do think only Aouita with a few others were really naturally a freak. Just look at the way Aouita was running as if he was born for this task and he was running as breathing.
Now you can see some like ArmstrongIsliv or Coevett throwing doping accusation ... that's pure hatred and jealousy.
If you want really judge a runner compare the difficulty of environment he raised from.
Now when you look at the influence and impact he made (generation Morceli, El Guerrouj, Skah; Hissou Salah...) you can be sure he was the greater.
Aouita had the greatest range ever. T+FN # 1 in the 800m once and in the 10k once (and lots of #1s in between).
They have only raced 5000 twice, and yes, Jakob won. But El G also handled Bekele pretty easily in 5000 races but that didn't mean El G could run 26:10 (or even 12:37, necessarily).
When did El G easily beat Bekele at 5k? I remember him edging Bekele in epic battles at 5k in 2003 WC and 2004 OG.
Rewatch 2004 I guess. Seemed pretty easy to me — not in much doubt, and he celebrated the last 10-15 meters. That was Bekele at his absolute peak, as well. Jakob chose not to race 2021 Tokyo when Chep was at his peak. Likely would have been a similar race.
in 2003 they both lost to Kipchoge but El G had put Bekele out of race already.
I think most of us are in agreement that Jakob would win at 10k. My guess is that in an absolute balls-to-the-wall 10,000m with competition, Jakob would run about 26:20. Suggesting he might approach 26:00 is a little fantastical in my opinion.
People like to use Fisher’s 26:33 as a point of comparison. For what it’s worth, if you transplanted Jakob into that race he probably runs 26:31-32, as that was a magnificent run for Fisher and Ahmed and they both closed really well.
15k or 10 miles would give Kiptum a much better chance. At half marathon I would definitely take Kiptum in 57-something, to 58-something for Jakob.
These types of races always favor the faster runner over shorter distances because the faster runner can draft and the aerobic athlete has to dictate pace. For the same reason Jakob is essentially unbeatable in paced diamond league races but vulnerable in championships, Jakob would be highly favored in a race like this. When was the last time you saw someone drop Jakob in a track race? It hasn’t happened this decade. Jakob, when he moves up to 10k, will be a Mo Farah redux.
I think most of us are in agreement that Jakob would win at 10k. My guess is that in an absolute balls-to-the-wall 10,000m with competition, Jakob would run about 26:20. Suggesting he might approach 26:00 is a little fantastical in my opinion.
People like to use Fisher’s 26:33 as a point of comparison. For what it’s worth, if you transplanted Jakob into that race he probably runs 26:31-32, as that was a magnificent run for Fisher and Ahmed and they both closed really well.
15k or 10 miles would give Kiptum a much better chance. At half marathon I would definitely take Kiptum in 57-something, to 58-something for Jakob.
I’m not sure I’d give Jakob 58s. You think Jakob is better in the half than Mo, Haile, Tergat and Kenenisa ever were? Wanjiru was a 58:33 runner.
Unless this is an alternate universe where he has entirely shifted his training that direction. If so, maybe. I still would bet against it. We’re talking about a dude who is probably at his absolute best over 2000-3000m.
These types of races always favor the faster runner over shorter distances because the faster runner can draft and the aerobic athlete has to dictate pace. For the same reason Jakob is essentially unbeatable in paced diamond league races but vulnerable in championships, Jakob would be highly favored in a race like this. When was the last time you saw someone drop Jakob in a track race? It hasn’t happened this decade. Jakob, when he moves up to 10k, will be a Mo Farah redux.
To a certain extent the faster runner in terms of top-end speed will win, but not when there are significantly different capabilities at the distance. A marathon is a very good indicator of 10000m ability, but the mile/2-mile is not. Your assumption is that Jakob is equally good at 10000m as he is at 1500m, but there yet no indication of that. He finished 12th at World U20 XC in 2019 and European XC isn’t nearly competitive at Worlds. It’s too early to assume he has the range of Hassan or Aouita.
I think most of us are in agreement that Jakob would win at 10k. My guess is that in an absolute balls-to-the-wall 10,000m with competition, Jakob would run about 26:20. Suggesting he might approach 26:00 is a little fantastical in my opinion.
People like to use Fisher’s 26:33 as a point of comparison. For what it’s worth, if you transplanted Jakob into that race he probably runs 26:31-32, as that was a magnificent run for Fisher and Ahmed and they both closed really well.
15k or 10 miles would give Kiptum a much better chance. At half marathon I would definitely take Kiptum in 57-something, to 58-something for Jakob.
I’m not sure I’d give Jakob 58s. You think Jakob is better in the half than Mo, Haile, Tergat and Kenenisa ever were? Wanjiru was a 58:33 runner.
Unless this is an alternate universe where he has entirely shifted his training that direction. If so, maybe. I still would bet against it. We’re talking about a dude who is probably at his absolute best over 2000-3000m.
I am inclined to agree with you here except for the impact of the shoes. I think if we put Jakob in the shoes from 20 years ago he might not break 59 but in today’s shoes I would concur with JWH that Jakob likely breaks 59. Much of this is speculative because as you both know there is potentially a lot of hyperbole in what Jakob would run for 10000m and above. Just as we really don’t know what Kiptum does at 10000m, except we KNOW that on the roads he can do roughly 28:32 four consecutive times and then do another 1.4 miles at that pace, which tells me he can run much faster than 28:32.
You have no idea what it takes to run a 2:00 marathon.
Neither do you.
But I guess it takes wheels and an insane endurance.
Kiptum obviously has wheels, but I highly doubt he could go much lower than 27 flat.
27:00 is 4:22 mile pace and Kiptum’s marathon WR pace is 4:36. No human, including Kiptum, can run a marathon at a pace only 14 seconds slower than 10000m pace. A typical spread for elite runners is at least 20 seconds.
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