Obviously Jakob’s the man with the best odds of winning the Olympic 1500m and the reigning champ, but would you give him over 50 percent odds vs the field?
He has to contend with:
-Yared Nuguse, who improved from being a 3:53 miler to a 3:43 miler in one year and is very dangerous at his best
-Josh Kerr, The reigning world champ who has always had a propensity for championship racing
-Jake Wightman, Who upset Jakob in 2022 and has amazing top end speed with a 2:13 1k and 1:43 800m
-Narve Nordas, his estranged father’s new protege who improved from 3:36 to 3:29 in a year, got bronze at worlds, and closed a 3:29 1500m with a 52 last lap
-Niels Laros, Seemingly the second coming of Jakob, ran a 4:49 2k, 3:31 1500m, and 1:44 800m at 18
Jakob is the favorite over any of these men individually but does he have a greater than 50% chance at beating all of them after losing his last three global 1500m finals?
The field.. we have every reason to assume he'll continue with similar training, a bit more geared toward 3k to cover the 2 distances so IMO he actually loses some speed vs 2023 Jakob. He is amazing at maintaining a brutal pace, but tactically I would not favor him in a 1500 championship race.
He closed his semi in 51 while waving to the crowd and looked like he was jogging compared to the rest of the field. That’s not even an exaggeration, watch how he glides past them on the backstretch and looks far more relaxed in the last 100m.
He’s definitely on the slower end in terms of pure 200/400 speed compared to a Wightman or a Laros , but so are Kerr and Nuguse. Funny how this board always talks about him like he’s the slowest guy by a huge margin.
53 last lap, last 200 in 26 (2:42 at the bell - 3:09 w 200 to go - 3:35)
And yes, he waved to the crowd on the final bend.
As mentioned, I'd still bet on him to win. The best chance the field has is a slow pace.
And why would anyone ever take it out hard with him in the final? They will let him do the work and compete to sit on him and snipe him in the last 200. That's a proven winning formula against him in a championship 1500. The pace doesn't even need to be so slow for them to beat him, they can clearly run him down in a 3:29 race. He has to be prepared to run a 3:27 by himself from the gun after rounds in heat and against a bunch of runners who have faster 800s than he does and who have the confidence to best him. So you think he'll do that?
Since I was one of the posters saying the field had a much better chance than the betting odds implied in a non-paced race, I'll stick with that position for any non-paced 1500 he runs.
The field has a great chance. I would bet the field.
I think the proposition gets tougher when half the field is thinking "We all know how to beat you" and only one of them has to for "the field" to win.
They know what he has to do, he knows they know, and he actually has to do that thing because he can't surprise them with a different strategy.
Yeah he has no cards to play in a championship race.. the only strategy that comes close to a lock is to run close to WR pace from the gun and hope he's zapped everyone by 200 to go. I think it's the field's to lose e.g. they tactically fumble trying to reposition themselves to stay on his shoulders.
He's not messing around this year. He will run 3:27:00 flat from the gun. And since running behind a 3:27 guy does not magically make you a 3:27 guy yourself he will win.
Frankly, he has to prove he can do that before he shows up for a final after several tactical rounds in Paris heat. If I watch him run a 3:28 solo before the Olympics I'll believe it.
I’m most concerned about Nuguse actually. I do think Jakob is really going to run away from everyone else this year. I think it will be like El Guerrouj in 1999, so it will be very valuable if someone makes Nuguse’s life more difficult like Estevez did to Ngeny in that final. I think Kerr will be in the mix but the pace might be too much and if Nordas is willing to sandbag like he did last year that bodes well for him against more aggressive runners like Kerr, Wightman, Reynold, Kipsang, Katir, Laros, Hoare, Mario and Tim who might go for the win,
I’d easily take the field but I don’t know who. I’d give him +150 odds, with Nuguse, Kerr, Wightman, Laros as the next tier below who have the highest chance to beat him, and hopefully Cheruiyot as well
At the end, it does not matter who wins because running the fastest is the whole point of this sport
Couldn’t agree more -it’s all about getting one’s potential out and shine (although have to admit that sometimes champ races can be fun..). I really like Jakob’s attitude (sad because he was sick and couldn’t win the 5000m WC in a dominant fashion; yes I also suspect him of being frustrated over how hot weather conditions ruins the good times in the 5000m champs).
He closed his semi in 51 while waving to the crowd and looked like he was jogging compared to the rest of the field. That’s not even an exaggeration, watch how he glides past them on the backstretch and looks far more relaxed in the last 100m.
He’s definitely on the slower end in terms of pure 200/400 speed compared to a Wightman or a Laros , but so are Kerr and Nuguse. Funny how this board always talks about him like he’s the slowest guy by a huge margin.
Jakob can close fine, as well as anyone if the pace is hard and he hasn't been leading for 3 laps. But Kerr wouldn't take the pace for long, it's not how he likes to run and it's not like Jakob can make him do it. He's done it when pushing for a national record, but otherwise is happy for others to take it on. Jakob's best bet if he's looking for a pacer is Kipsang or a renewed Cheruiyot.
Regardless of how the race is run, I still don't see any reason to back Jakob over the field. He'll definitely get a medal but he's not like peak Kipchoge or even peak Farah in terms of an overwhelming favourite for the win.
of course, this is obvious. if jakob doesn't take it out, nobody will. The race will be won in 3:32, and 8 guys will have a chance to win. At that point, there is no prohibitive favorite.
i would love to see what a race looks like where the field goes 60-62 pace for 700 meters, and then Jakob goes ham for the last 800, with something like a 1:46-1:47.
This is exactly what Jakob needs to do. let the pace go 60-61 and then run 53s pace to the finish. In Athens they went through in 2:01 high and then El G blasted the last 700 at 53s pace. Even with that, he still had to go deep into the well with 50m to go to hold off Lagat. Masterclass after losing Sydney in such a heartbreaking fashion. I hope Jakob is a student of the sport.
another tactic is for Filip to get healthy and sacrifice himself for Jakob by taking the first 800 out fast. but that requires him making the final of course…
jakob can close so much better than his haters give him credit for. He just doesn't believe it gives him his best chance. I honestly think if he ran on Kerr's shoulder until 175 to go, he is able to go by the same way Kerr did.
It is messy taking that chance though. if you want to run a kicker's race, you are letting 7 or 8 guys stay in until the end, and the odds of getting boxed or some other disaster tremendously increase.
I like Kerr, but he is a parasite (an intelligent one). If Jakob decided to sit back, Kerr's chances would definitely be less than they are with Jakob out front setting a pace.
He closed his semi in 51 while waving to the crowd and looked like he was jogging compared to the rest of the field. That’s not even an exaggeration, watch how he glides past them on the backstretch and looks far more relaxed in the last 100m.
He’s definitely on the slower end in terms of pure 200/400 speed compared to a Wightman or a Laros , but so are Kerr and Nuguse. Funny how this board always talks about him like he’s the slowest guy by a huge margin.
It's a total brain worm to suggest Jakob can't close. A lot of it is people focussing on his open 800 time, which is mediocre. But as I've said before, it doesn't really matter what a 1500 guy can run for an open 800 when he's fresh. All that matters is what he can run for 800 when he already has 700m if hard running in his legs. I have no doubt at all that Jakob could close in 50 seconds in a 3:45 race. The reason he doesn't do that is because there's at least three other guys, and probably more, that can do the same (Wightman and Kerr both ran 50 for the final lap at the British champs in a 3:40 race in 2021).
This is exactly what Jakob needs to do. let the pace go 60-61 and then run 53s pace to the finish. In Athens they went through in 2:01 high and then El G blasted the last 700 at 53s pace. Even with that, he still had to go deep into the well with 50m to go to hold off Lagat. Masterclass after losing Sydney in such a heartbreaking fashion. I hope Jakob is a student of the sport.
another tactic is for Filip to get healthy and sacrifice himself for Jakob by taking the first 800 out fast. but that requires him making the final of course…
You (and others) haven’t paid attention to what Jakob poses in his interviews: That he doesn’t want to win the 1500m in champs per ce -he wants to win without using tactics and in a dominant way! (Because he thinks he can without fierce competitors like Morceli, Lagat, El Guerrouj and Ngeny..).
Leading can be a disadvantage, but (as Kerr has admitted) struggling behind in the field can also be difficult. But this is not Jakob’s concern: He wants to do something extraordinary (because he can), and run fast times, and become a legend (because he thinks he can). -This being my interpretation of his interviews…
Depending on how fast will Jakob run. If he runs 3:28, he wins. In a 3:29 race he most certainly gets pipped by one of many 800/1500m type runners. My secret bet would be on Garcia.
In a 326 race Jakob destroys the field. No one else has the potential for wr.
Obviously Jakob’s the man with the best odds of winning the Olympic 1500m and the reigning champ, but would you give him over 50 percent odds vs the field?
He has to contend with:
-Yared Nuguse, who improved from being a 3:53 miler to a 3:43 miler in one year and is very dangerous at his best
-Josh Kerr, The reigning world champ who has always had a propensity for championship racing
-Jake Wightman, Who upset Jakob in 2022 and has amazing top end speed with a 2:13 1k and 1:43 800m
-Narve Nordas, his estranged father’s new protege who improved from 3:36 to 3:29 in a year, got bronze at worlds, and closed a 3:29 1500m with a 52 last lap
-Niels Laros, Seemingly the second coming of Jakob, ran a 4:49 2k, 3:31 1500m, and 1:44 800m at 18
Jakob is the favorite over any of these men individually but does he have a greater than 50% chance at beating all of them after losing his last three global 1500m finals?
I'd pick the field vs Jakob in the 1500, but I'd also pick Jakob vs the field in the 5k.
I do think Jakob gets too much criticism for his championship 1500 races the last 2 years. In 2022 he led the last 850m and ran the legs off EVERYONE except Wightman. There were 7 guys there with 100 to go and only Wightman got the best of him. In 2023 he led the last 1k, and again ran the legs off EVERYONE except Kerr. It's not like he's leading and then getting swamped on the homestretch.
He's the back to back world 5k champ. If we thought of him as a 5k guy first, we'd be massively impressed at his ability to drop down and so consistently have a chance to win the 15.
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