Unlike most here, my sense is that Kenya’s dominance is very much reduced not strengthened in the period since 2010. Several distance races at global championships have no Kenyans in the finals let alone on the podium or in clean sweeps.
That’s no proof that they aren’t doping. Indeed it may be that they are doping to keep up with vastly improving others.
The doping apologist shills and trolls are having to work overtime today. Imagine what it's going to be like for them when the names are revealed? And this is likely the tip of the iceberg. And all the runners that ADAK admitted yesterday who are 'running away' from the increased testing, so we will get a flood of wherabouts suspensions soon. I said yesterday that we could see 200 suspensions, and I think it's possible over the next few months.
The reason you don't see more busts among the top tier is that you need to be making good money (huge money in Kenya) before you can afford the micro-dosing and test-evasion consulting services of Jama Aden, Victor Conte, Alberto Salazar and the like.
So it's Tier 2, or the newer Tier 1, who are most likely to be busted. And of course the unlucky, the complacent, and the dull, just like everywhere else.
Kenya just needs to be banned. I particularly love the argument that the very top Kenyans have not been caught, ergo they are clean. Loll. They have been caught, and are either protected or can afford better doping doctors. Just a complete farce.
Agree 100 percent.
Kenya needs to be banned.
World Athletics get your head out of the sand and stand up for clean sport.
Unlike most here, my sense is that Kenya’s dominance is very much reduced not strengthened in the period since 2010. Several distance races at global championships have no Kenyans in the finals let alone on the podium or in clean sweeps.
That’s no proof that they aren’t doping. Indeed it may be that they are doping to keep up with vastly improving others.
Timeline:
2009 - begin of ABP
2015 - Diack ousted
2017 - AIU created
2019 - increasing AIU focus on Kenya
2021 - ADAK starts banning Kenyans
Hard to strengthen Kenyan dominance under those conditions.
The main reason for Kenyan success is not doping, anyone who follows athletics just a little bit knows this.
Your only alternative ('natural born running genes') is just one of many reasons for their success. Those reasons are well known since decades: hard training, running since childhood, nutrition, easy lifestyle, altitude, tradition, financial incentives and so on.
I disagree.
East African countries went from being strong distance running nations to completely dominant pretty much at the time EPO became available. Particularly as they had full support of Lamine Diack, who saw the sport as not being fair on Africans and had a strong interest in 'levelling the playing field'.
Nobody is saying they wouldn't be successful if doping was never a thing, they probably still would have been the strongest nations. Just not at the ridiculous level of dominance that they have enjoyed for the last 20-25 years.
Good post. I hadn't been aware of Lamine Diack's massive impact and utter corruption in pursuit of equity. There is a picture of him with Putin on his wiki page so you know he's bad. And it is at least a big coincidence that the dawn of African dominance happened during the EPO era and Diack's rise to power and influence.
It is significant for the discussion that Kenya’s recent performance improvements have coincided with global time improvements, the leaders aren’t trailblazing outliers but have carried the world with them. See the all time progression lists in the marathon, or consider Euro-American NRs alongside Kipyegon’s summer exploits for example. This isn’t East Germany’s regime or Ma’s army.
Alternative explanations include widespread global juicing, clubbing, more disciplined training regimes, shoe technology, race organisation and so on. There’s just no evidence situating collective Kenyan results vis a vis other countries as especial and therefore obviously linked to PEDs. It may even be deduced that Kenyan sport is cleaner now than in the past when the country was more dominant.
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Again, I say this as someone who sees the evidence that there is intense even if not systematic doping over there. I agree that it matters that lower tier athletes are doping in this back alley way; especially for the threat to their health.
I think a sociological analysis for this spike in individualised doping is possible - capitalist individualist entrepreneurialism - is persuasive. Greater prize money in a much more open and competitive East Africa that is at once vastly richer but much more intensely unequal makes it so PED salespeople are meeting more agreeable clients who know from others that PEDs work.
Your argument amounts to little more than this: Kenyans don't dope more than anyone else, they are simply picked on more than anyone else.
However the reason they are picked on more by antidoping is they dope more than just about everybody else. That's the bit you don't get - and don't want to get.
It's like convictions for organised crime. There will be more because law enforcement will focus on it because it's a serious problem. And that's Kenyan doping - a serious problem.
Interesting I said "proportionally more busts" and you understood "Kenyans don't dope more".
What don't I get? I said "more talent", "more tests", and "more busts".
It is the AIU who says Kenya's depth of top-talent is unique -- they called it a "pyramid" comprised of hundreds, or even thousands, of athletes, and that talent is also one main factor in determining who gets tested.
Your speculation about reasons remains speculation.
The main reason for Kenyan success is not doping, anyone who follows athletics just a little bit knows this.
Your only alternative ('natural born running genes') is just one of many reasons for their success. Those reasons are well known since decades: hard training, running since childhood, nutrition, easy lifestyle, altitude, tradition, financial incentives and so on.
I disagree.
East African countries went from being strong distance running nations to completely dominant pretty much at the time EPO became available. Particularly as they had full support of Lamine Diack, who saw the sport as not being fair on Africans and had a strong interest in 'levelling the playing field'.
Nobody is saying they wouldn't be successful if doping was never a thing, they probably still would have been the strongest nations. Just not at the ridiculous level of dominance that they have enjoyed for the last 20-25 years.
This makes sense if regions of East Africa and Ethiopia doped with EPO, for three decades, while the rest of the world didn't.
Recall that Ashenden/Parisotto analyzed a large blood database spanning 2000-2012, and the Sunday Times reported Kenyan and Ethiopian suspicious blood values were below the global average.
Recall Kenya and Ethiopia dominated World Cross Country in the 1980s, a decade before dominating the track in the 1990s.
Lamine Diack was supporting Russia's cover-ups, and was not the head of the IAAF until 1999.
Just noting this may be across all sports as I'm reading it. So it is may not be 50 track and field athletes. Unclear what the breakdown will be but in past cases it is around 50-75% of the athletes in these lists.
EDIT: And appreciate Coevett rightfully giving props to ADAK, though I will note it seems they botched the Kumari Taki ban. Hopefully everything here was done by the book.
This post was edited 9 minutes after it was posted.
Unlike most here, my sense is that Kenya’s dominance is very much reduced not strengthened in the period since 2010. Several distance races at global championships have no Kenyans in the finals let alone on the podium or in clean sweeps.
That’s no proof that they aren’t doping. Indeed it may be that they are doping to keep up with vastly improving others.
So what you have is two instances with only one entrant in the 800 (2023) and the 5000 (2021). The 800 this year of course was with Korir injured and Kinyamal (Kenyan no. 2) left off the team. In 2021, Kenya had only two entrants in the 5000 due to injury. Ebenyo who has blossomed into a stud bombed in his semi.
Adding in other Global Championships:
World XC: Kenya Goes 4-5-6-7 to easily win Team Title
World Roads: Kenya sweeps HM podium, in de facto second World Half Champs Kibiwott Kandie wins Valencia Half
World Marathon Majors: 2022: Kenyans win Tokyo (1-2), Boston (1-2-3-5-6), London, Berlin (1-2), Chicago (1-3-4), New York 2023: Kenyans win Boston (1-3-4), London (1-2), Berlin (1-2-4), Chicago(1-2-4), 2nd in New York, 4th in Tokyo
This post was edited 11 minutes after it was posted.
OK, so I've been arguing here since something like 2016 that the reason for Kenyan success has been doping rather than 'natural born running genes', and since then there have been over 300 Kenyan busts, including Olympic champions and world record holders, and over 50 more today announced, but your take is that I'm just a racist.
This is the equivalent of you going on to StormFront, claiming that the reason why whites dominate Harvard admissions is because of cheating and favoritism rather than any supposed 'superior IQ' of white people, and then over the next ten years it emerges there has been rampant cheating and favoritism benefitting white students at the expense of black candidates, and still the Stormfront NAZIs accuse YOU of being an anti-white racist.
You have been arguing a false dilemma -- that we must choose between doping and genes as an explanation, without considering environmental factors like being born and raised at a high altitude "sweet spot", and growing up to be 10-20 pounds lighter than other national class athletes.
Maybe you have cause and effect backwards: the high number of talented athletes in Kenya results in proportionally more athletes subject to more tests, and proportionally more busts.
In America's War on Drugs, blacks and minorities are disproportionally imprisoned, leading some to conclude that these minorities are inherently more prone to crime, rather than being treated differently by law enforcement and the judicial system.
You are sometimes off base but this is a brilliant post and yet you get downvoted due to the average poster being a moron and maybe because it is coming from you.
The Kenyans and Ethiopians are superior distance runners. If there is now more doping there, it is because it is so damn competitive because they are superior, so doping is felt to be almost a prerequisite. IF there was no doping at all, the East Africans would still be superior. This is pretty clear to the intelligent. If it is not pretty clear to you, you are an idiot, a racist, or likely both.
Since the 1968 Mexico City Olympics, Kenyan and Ethiopian runners have dominated the middle- and long-distance events in athletics and have exhibited comparable dominance in international cross-country and road-racing competi...
The doping issue is rampant in athletics. But let us not allow our racism to distract us from the facts. Yes doping is also a problem among East African runners but to say doping is the reason for their success is palpably absurd. As an example, Barry Bonds was a Hall of Fame caliber baseball player before he starting taking anabolic steroids and became something out of this world. Well many of these Kenyan runners are already Hall of Fame caliber runners and some then dope, and some become out of this world runners. But make no mistake: the doping is not the reason they are Hall of Fame level, it just takes some of them to out of this world levels. And doping is not singular to any one culture. Not at all.
This makes sense if regions of East Africa and Ethiopia doped with EPO, for three decades, while the rest of the world didn't.
Recall that Ashenden/Parisotto analyzed a large blood database spanning 2000-2012, and the Sunday Times reported Kenyan and Ethiopian suspicious blood values were below the global average.
Recall Kenya and Ethiopia dominated World Cross Country in the 1980s, a decade before dominating the track in the 1990s.
Lamine Diack was supporting Russia's cover-ups, and was not the head of the IAAF until 1999.
Recall that there were literally no blood tests in Kenya and Ethiopia before 2015, so that their "suspicious blood values were below the global average" is meaningless.
The Kenyans and Ethiopians are superior distance runners. If there is now more doping there, it is because it is so damn competitive because they are superior, so doping is felt to be almost a prerequisite. IF there was no doping at all, the East Africans would still be superior. This is pretty clear to the intelligent. If it is not pretty clear to you, you are an idiot, a racist, or likely both.
These Kenyans who are clearly doping out of their minds with their supposed genetic advantage ought to be blowing western athletes out of the water in all distance events you would think. Yet they can't sniff a podium from 1500-5k on the men's side. If they were already better to begin with, and the only reason they are doping is to stand out nationally, winning internationally should be a mere formality. No? Yet here we are and the best male distance runner in the world is from frickin Norway. This whole myth is crumbling, yet we have diligent racist "anti-racists" like yourself holding on for dear life.
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