Seems like NAU race strategy could be fairly obvious. Why wouldn't Nico/Drew take it out and try to gap the field like last year. Has worked well for NAU (Baxter/Day '17) and makes sense weather permitting. I would trust the Nico/Drew duo to execute well working with each other and can't quite imagine who would go with like Hicks last year. The next group of NAU boys would pack up and hunt down guys who go out fast (off the chase pack). Maybe ALH aims to sit in the chase pack if they're confident in his fitness. The strategy for OSU is far more up in the air. Would any of their guys go with a hot pace from the jump? I see it as more beneficial for Musau, Maier, Messaoudi to stay in/command the chase pack. Could see Blanks/Robinson & maybe another wild card possibly taking 3,4,5 if the chase pack hangs around until 3/2k to go with NY/DB clear ahead (who could hawk these guys down barring one/both blow up?). If the OSU 1-3 can finish top 10 with Kipngetich/Muirhead/Price/VS packing up and keeping an eye on NAU's chase pack, seems like a good strategy. I think this really helps someone like Kipngetich coming off a poor conf. race to be able to run with his teammates. (I also don't think we should be too worked up over Big 12. Seems like OSU had that on lock and weren't throwing everything that had, esp. if they new Clinger was going to DNS. Could have had held guys back a little because Nov. 18 is when it matters)
So:
NAU: 1,2,12, 20,25= 60 (generous banking 1-2?)
OSU: 6,7,8,15,21= 57 (generous on the back end?)
This is going to be a close one if each team can have at least an A-/B+ day.
I have no doubt Bosley and Young take it out but it won't be like last year when only Hicks went with them.
no way Dave Smith lets 2 NAU runners take off without a fight - Musau, Messaoudi, Maier, or maybe all three try to keep it honest. my guess is Musau goes with them, though Maier has more experience at 10k.
and Graham Blanks really wants a title, he'll go with them if he's feeling up to it. same with Ky Robinson. in fact I think Ky Robinson might win the whole thing. he has a better kick than Nico Young.
Seems like NAU race strategy could be fairly obvious. Why wouldn't Nico/Drew take it out and try to gap the field like last year. Has worked well for NAU (Baxter/Day '17) and makes sense weather permitting. I would trust the Nico/Drew duo to execute well working with each other and can't quite imagine who would go with like Hicks last year. The next group of NAU boys would pack up and hunt down guys who go out fast (off the chase pack). Maybe ALH aims to sit in the chase pack if they're confident in his fitness. The strategy for OSU is far more up in the air. Would any of their guys go with a hot pace from the jump? I see it as more beneficial for Musau, Maier, Messaoudi to stay in/command the chase pack. Could see Blanks/Robinson & maybe another wild card possibly taking 3,4,5 if the chase pack hangs around until 3/2k to go with NY/DB clear ahead (who could hawk these guys down barring one/both blow up?). If the OSU 1-3 can finish top 10 with Kipngetich/Muirhead/Price/VS packing up and keeping an eye on NAU's chase pack, seems like a good strategy. I think this really helps someone like Kipngetich coming off a poor conf. race to be able to run with his teammates. (I also don't think we should be too worked up over Big 12. Seems like OSU had that on lock and weren't throwing everything that had, esp. if they new Clinger was going to DNS. Could have had held guys back a little because Nov. 18 is when it matters)
So:
NAU: 1,2,12, 20,25= 60 (generous banking 1-2?)
OSU: 6,7,8,15,21= 57 (generous on the back end?)
This is going to be a close one if each team can have at least an A-/B+ day.
I have no doubt Bosley and Young take it out but it won't be like last year when only Hicks went with them.
no way Dave Smith lets 2 NAU runners take off without a fight - Musau, Messaoudi, Maier, or maybe all three try to keep it honest. my guess is Musau goes with them, though Maier has more experience at 10k.
and Graham Blanks really wants a title, he'll go with them if he's feeling up to it. same with Ky Robinson. in fact I think Ky Robinson might win the whole thing. he has a better kick than Nico Young.
Agree with this. After last year with so many contenders caught flat footed by that early move i think you'll see a cognizant effort by the favorites to make sure they got out fast and are at the front so they can match any move if they want/are able.
The guy is only 18 years old. He was in the U18 Kenya team in Zambia during the Africa juniors' championship. It's crazy nobody cares to mention white foreigners competing in the NCAA.
White foreign runners have had a massive impact in the NCAA. It's no secret. Everyone knows and this. You just love seeing racism where it doesn't exist.
Competing with U18 Kenyan teams is hardly proof of age. Those teams have been absolutely rife with age cheating. I don't need to link a bunch of articles proving that. I have been consistent in objecting to using various exemptions to set out teams of 24-26 year olds, whether they are Kenyan, British, or Mormon.
Your analysis seems pretty good but I think Bosley is the man to beat at NAU. I’m picking Drew Bosley for national champion.
I like Bosley too and would love to see him win an individual title in what is his last NCAA XC race but he LOVES to front run and push the pace, and in a 10k where guys can sit back and draft it could hurt him in the end.
watch this years Nuttycombe. He led the first 4K, nobody else took a turn up front but he didn't care because his pace broke up the field and helped his team, which is what NAU is all about. the eventual winner Graham Blanks hid in the pack and pounced once he saw Bosley falter.
You just making an assumption. No way 24-26-year-olds completed high school in 2022…..This is about the Kenyans, not the British or the Mormons. You can’t hear this BS from Black athletes competing with the so-called over-age international students though….
As for overall individual winner, I think Graham Blanks is going to take it. would be weird to see a kid not on scholarship win NCAAs (not sure if that’s been done before?) but he looks pretty unbeatable with that revamped kick.
You just making an assumption. No way 24-26-year-olds completed high school in 2022…..This is about the Kenyans, not the British or the Mormons. You can’t hear this BS from Black athletes competing with the so-called over-age international students though….
There are plenty of black athletes competing whose ages are never questioned. There have been less than 50% birth certificate rates issued at birth (that is, from hospitals) in Kenya for generations. Here is a page of web hits relating to Kenyan junior cheating:
As for whether 24-26 year olds were completing high school in 2022, I don't know how that is relevant here, but I had a 30 year old secondary school student in a country near Kenya who had been 4 years ahead of one of my fellow teachers in primary school. The teacher had caught up to him, attended four years of college, and come back to teach only to see this student in his senior year. It's not at all uncommon to take a few years off to farm or to take a few extra years trying to pass required national exams before high school graduation in East Africa. Learn something about how the world works before you cast aspersions. This is about Kenyans and Moroccans because that is what is at issue with OK State. If BYU were a title contender again, we'd be talking about Mormons graduating hs in 2017 and still competing.
Mike Smith was sitting up in front of me at today's NAU/Idaho women's soccer match. Had to use every bit of restraint I possess not to let him know how much I adore him
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