Nuttycombe predictions - Official 2023 Nuttycombe Discussion Thread

Tuohy has hers in a twist. She is scared to death about losing her first race since she got scared out of competing.

Her first race since the poor showing in the 1500 at Nats was against an infinitely more difficult field at USA's...

At USA Nats, Tuohy ran a faster 5k time than any other woman in the ncaa did last season (excluding herself)

So if she’s rested and in shape, it would be hard to bet against her.

Some runners might want to run really hard here to see what the course feels like at hard effort. Doing it next year (at PreNats, since Nutty will be two weeks earlier and smaller, like in 2018) might mean doing too many hard efforts and not necessarily with the right timing. Since the course will host the Big Ten meet and then Regionals

What?

Windy too!

Would they run it if it’s a mud pit? Can’t imagine the athletes would want to risk injury so early in the season

Yes.

They flip flopped the schedule for tomorrow due to the weather. Championship races will now be run first.

Nico Young is going to dominate in the rain like he did at NXN. He'll lead from the front and Bosley will control the chase pack.

Habtom Samuel will be racing. Very curious to see how he does against this field. He has run 13:13/27:20

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Habtom SAMUEL | Profile | World Athletics

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Any news on when Tyynismaa will run this season?

I thought it odd that both TSR and Flotrack thought NC St W are a slam dunk winner on Friday. Are many (and I am in that group) overestimating NAU W?

anyone know where to find a cheaper stream, i have a vpn in case i need to be in another country

The NAU women are strong and I would not be surprised if they win. NC State is strong with or without Tyynismaa and are capable of winning, particularly if Bush gets bak on form and the freshen, Stephens & Hartman run well. Florida will also make an impression.

For the overall I have got to say that Tuohy is the favorite unless she runs back with the team to help pull them up. Someone else mentioned this earlier in the thread but I don't believe that it will be the case. Tuohy is a mudder and the predicted conditions should not bother her. I'm glad to that Florida is running. Last season Valby ran some incredibly fast times prior to the Nate but they were on flatter courses in the south. This will be more of a test for her but I expect her to be up with Tuohy. Chmiel will also place high and I am looking for Olivia Markezich to be up there after being off of the pace a bit at Piane. I can also see Greta Karinauskaite up there after having a good opener at Griak.

Elise Stearns will also be up there.

I'll go with -

1. Tuohy 2. Valby 3. Chmiel 4. Markzich 5. Karinauskaite or Stearns

NC State having two consistent front runners vs. NAU having one means there's a lot of pressure on the group of Larkin, Reiss, Smee, Grice (whichever of them is racing) to stay as close to Stearns as possible. For instance Reiss and Larkin were 12 and 15 seconds back of Stearns at UVA and that was only 7/8 positions. In a larger field like Nuttycombe 15 seconds could be 20+ spots. If both Tuohy and Chmiel finish top 6 ish for NC State and only Stearns does for NAU then they'll need their backend to really finish strong. Especially if either Leah Stephens performs well again or Sam Bush is back to better form.