Here is some comments on my point C. in the above post 37:
But how long can you continue to improve the aerobic capacity? For a pretty long time judging from real life data:
Many of the all time greats continued to improve far up in their thirties, for example Haile Gebrselassie, Eliud Kipchoge, Mo Farah and Bernard Lagat who all set PBs, including WRs by the first 2, on the HM and/or the Marathon in their late thirties.
Gebrselassie is of special interest when comparing to Jakob because he started to run equally early:
20km per day to and from school (in the rainy season he ran even more because he couldn´t cross a dried up river bed). Haile set a total of 27 WRs. His track PBs were set at 25 and 26 years old. He then went on to set WRs on the HM and the Marathon. PBs set at 32 and 35 respectively.
B. Lagat was extreme: He set PB in the 3000m at age 35 and in the 5000m at 36.
Mo Farah set most of his PBs on the track in his late twenties and early thirties. He went on to set PB in the HM at 32 and in the marathon at 35.
Kipchoge who also started running very early to and from school was peaking early at the track but then found his “niche”: The Marathon.
From (official) age 28 to age 37 he improved his Marathon time from 2:04:05 to 2:01:09.
This can only be done by continuing increasing the aerobic capacity since there is an almost 100% correlation between the Marathon time and the aerobic capacity.
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Many former and current top middle distance runners have also been able to improve until
their late twenties or even up in the thirties:
Coe PB in 1500m at 29
Ovett at 27
Fermin
Cacho at 28
Lagat at 26
Mo Farah at 34
Lewandowski at 34
Wightman at 28
Habz at 29
Hoare at 26
Coscoran at 27
Gourley at 28
Giles at 29
Mechaal at 30
Engels at 27
These late improvements must be due to improved endurance since the speed normally has started to decrease in those ages.
A good example is Lewandowski who both ran the 800m and the 1500m. For many years his main focus was the 800m and he managed to run appr. the same time from age 22
to age 32: 1:43.7-8.
He could possibly maintain his level in the 800m because he was able to offset a minor
decline in speed by increased endurance. Because in the same span of time he improved his 1500m time with 13 seconds! And 1 second more from age 32 to 34.
Lewandowski was also known for running a rather high mileage even when he still mainly was an 800m runner (he probably turned his focus to the 1500m in 2017-2018).
Another example is Sebastian Coe who ran his 800m PB (and WR at the time) 1:41.73 at
age 24 but ran his 1500m PB 3:29.77 at age 29 in a year where he only ran 1:44.10
in the 800m. The 1500m PB must have been due to improved endurance.
But what about Jakob? Isn´t he supposed to peak early because he has already trained for
so many years/ already run so fast times. Yes, this is what many (especially American?) posters have postulated for years BUT THERE DOESN´T SEEM TO BE ANY EVIDENCE FOR THAT THEORY.
Haile Gebrselassie´s seems to show the opposite. And I don´t no of any runner who has
peaked early because starting running early.
Jim Ryun and Alan Webb have been mentioned as examples for early peak but none of them to my knowledge started running that early.
Jim Ryun to my knowledge started running at 15 and peaked at 19 in the 800m and at 20 in the 1500m and in the mile. My impression is that Ryun trained too hard not allowing for the crucial recovery days. He could possibly have improved for more years if he had had a more balanced schedule.
Alan Webb started running about the same time as Ryun but opposite him he had already
been training seriously since he was 11 AS A SWIMMER. After being the youngest to break the 4 minute in the mile and running 3:53 at 18 he had problems by keeping up. He, however, had his best season in 2007 at age 24 with PBs in the 800m, the 1500m and the mile (3:46.91 former AR). Webb possibly didn´t reach his potential as a middle distance runner due to lack of continuity in his training and a tendency to overtrain He was known for racing in training and in his 2007 season he peaked before the WC in Osaka where he faded to 8 in the 1500m final.
HE, HOWEVER, WAS 24 IN 2007 SO HE DIDN´T PEAK UNUSUAL EARLY.
I think both Ryun and Webb would have had a better and longer career if they had followed a training regimen similar to Jakob´s from an early age.
Even my hero Peter Snell would possibly have been significantly better if he had followed
Jakob´s training FROM A YOUNG AGE. Snell´s training according to Lydiard´s principles was good but he started too late and as an amateur with a fulltime job he sometimes due to lack of motivation neglected his training which forced him to train harder to keep up so he several times suffered from overload injuries.
Jakob on the other hand has reportedly followed his training schedule from day to day for
at least 15 years, only interrupted by illness and injury (and some times fatigue for example after the 1500m gold in Tokyo 2021). He reportedly takes a week off after the finish of the track season and then he starts the base training. (This year he possibly spent the week off on his honeymoon?)
So there is no rational reason to believe that he can´t improve his aerobic capacity further and thus improve his already impressive PBs from the 1500m and up in the coming years
In my next post I will show that MANY former and current 1500m top runners have increased their times significantly after age 22.