M 1500m Final Prediction top 3

Couldn't agree more. If he sits back as he did in the semifinal he will lose giving the effort he has to put to come to the front of the field. Nuguse, Kerr, Garcia, Laros, R.Cheruyot are though guys that you can't overcome so easily. At this point i don't even know which is the best tactics for him. He should stay in the middle of the group and go ahead the last 300m probabily. But again he has lost in Eugene by doing so. It is going to be a really really difficult race for him.

You gonna come back and admit you were wrong after the race on wednesday?

I hope i'm wrong because i'm a Jakob fan but i see this final really hard for him because he is not good in tactical races. And there are many guys that could do really well in a tactical race.

Laros isn't running sub-3:30. He's had a great year but that would be outrageous. I'd add him to the lump of guys you have at 8-12 so that would be 6 who could finish anywhere in that mess - Hocker could be 7th or 12th, same for Gourley.

Agreed

I find this hard to take seriously after what he did in his semi. He cruised a "tactical" race and out-kicked everyone while running in lane 2. The only way I can see him losing is if he races like an idiot as he did last year. It's pretty clear to me that he has a kick that is at least as good as anyone in that field

What makes you think Nuguse can run 3:28? He was essentially paced the entire time in Oslo and only managed 3:29. Jakob has to lead an additional 300-500 in every race he’s in and has run 3:27 in those conditions 😂

I think we haven't seen the best of Laros yet. He's getting better every race. In the semi-finals the kid showed a kind of ease on the inside finishlane that I very rarely have seen yet. Jacob better watch out. Look in the semi-finals to the beasty grimaces of Gourley, Nordas, Katir and Mechaal in the last lap, not the worst. Niels looked like running amazingly comfortable. Jakob still has the better chances but there's a scneario with the two of them left and Laros will outkick him. Don't underestimate his final kick. If it's a fight race maybe he isn't mature enough but for sure Paris will be interesting. Laros then will be the golden boy.

I admit predicting Laros to place 5th in 3:29.9 is a wee bit whimsical, but he might surprise you. Just because he hasn’t run 3:29-3:30 yet doesn’t mean it can’t happen. In his semi he placed 3rd in the midst of guys with 3:29.02/3:29.11/3:29.26/3:29.47/3:30.60 season’s bests and looked composed doing it, like there’s more in the tank. He’s still rapidly improving, and he hasn’t been in a truly fast 1500 yet this year. His 1:44.78 800 PB a month ago is particularly encouraging. And there’s an obvious recent precedent for an 18 year old European running 3:30.16.

I believe Jakob could run 3:27 from the front, and he very well might if that’s his objective. However, we know he won’t be first off the line and I can imagine him taking a little bit of time to get to the lead in order to best conserve his energy, and then measuring his effort somewhat in the penultimate lap instead of gunning it for the fastest possible time (plus, he might give up a couple tenths in the homestretch celebrating, showboating or just shutting it down).

Jakob clocked 51:68. Seiko, what a disaster.

In a fast race: 1. Jakob 2. Kerr 3. Nordås or Nuguse.

1. Ingebrigtsen

2. Hocker

3. Laros

4. Nuguse

Gold: Jakob Ingebrigtsen, Norway

Silver: Yared Nuguse, USA

Bronze: Abel Kipsang, Kenya

People here are sleeping on Kipsang. He's medaled before and has a 3:29.11 to his name this year.

His only chance to lose is a 3:50 type race like 2016. But that will never happen. It will be at least 3:35 and Jakob will win unless he does something really dumb.

It seems to be the Jakob show and unlike last year, I don't see anyone pulling a Wightman this time. Based on the rounds;

1st Jakob 3.27.56

2nd Yared 3.28.40

3rd Kerr 3.28.80

Will be a great race!

Kipsang has never medaled outdoors. He is good enough to medal but his tactics leave a lot to be desired. If he doesn’t battle for the lead like last year he can contend with Nuguse, Kerr, Romo, etc. for the silver and bronze.

I gotta say the Brojos/Gaults dismissal of Kipsang is completely bizarre. On the podcast, Jon wavers on whether he’s a medal threat and Rojo admits not to have been watching him. The guy has controlled the first 2300 of his races and looked in cruise control pulling up to Nuguse in his semi. Meanwhile when asked about Nordas he was a slam dunk for medal contention. To me after Jakob - Kerr, Kipsang and Nuguse have made qualifying look the most like a breeze with Garcia Romo, Hocker and Laros in the next group. Nordas/Nader/Reynold/Habz look fine but theyre having to get physical and get into their full sprints to get through. It’s been a struggle for Gourley.

If you watched Kipsang in Silesia and so far if this thing strings out it’s ideal for him. His problem is tactical races where he’s not in control. But this final might just be a fitness contest and I’d take him in that to be right with Nuguse and Kerr fighting for hardware.

I was told Jakob would never run below 1:46