After worrying about how hard it is to front run for more than a year, we say he gets the job done. What say you? Read our preview and vote in our poll and then explain yourself.
Tim and Stewy take turns leading up to about 800 metres in a pretty fast pace, then Jakob throws down the gauntlet and Katir is the only one brave enough to go with him. With 150 to go, Katir tries sneaking up on the inside and that pisses off Jakob, who surges one more time as he gaps Katir on the home straight. Nuguse closes hard and overtakes front-runners such as Cheruiyot, Kipsang and Kerr in the final 300 metres for bronze.
Do not forget Narve Gilje Nordås. He is relatively new in the game and has learned a lot from his runs in Oslo and London, due to his very slow openings . He has been the fastest at the last 800s both times. And knows that his third round in London was too fast: 54.6. So in the final he will stay closer to Jakob, Katir, Kerr and Nuguse during the race.
2022 3:36.23 2023 3:29.47
Where are you Coevett and the others "most obvious doper" hater?
After worrying about how hard it is to front run for more than a year, we say he gets the job done. What say you? Read our preview and vote in our poll and then explain yourself.
If he’s healthy he wins going away. I’ve written this before, but watch Hassan’s win in Doha, that’s exactly how Jakob is going to do it. He lays back for about 300 meters, then takes the lead and grinds them all into dust. None of them are fit enough or suicidal enough to try and surge past him during the race. Over the last 200 he simply extends the lead and comes home with a 1 second win 3:27 high/3:28 low. Jakob will be his own pacemaker just as he said in response to Rojo. In his wake they are all jostling for silver and bronze. Who gets it? I have Nuguse for silver and Kerr for bronze in 3:29 mid.
Welcome to the World Athletics Watch Party, join the conversation on Twitter with our hashtag #WatchWorldAthletics.Sifan Hassan completed an unprecedented 15...
I think the dreadful pacing job by Baba hurt El Guerrouj. As Jakob would put it he likely got the lactic going a bit early (54.2-3 lap and then a slow one). In response it was an uneven 3:32 race instead of a sub-3:30. The 3rd lap was a little compromised and Ngeny measured it perfectly.
Theres unlikely to be much of a variable pacing-wise here as Jakob can run 56s in his sleep and has shown a great sense of pace in fast races all season. Now I think you’re right the one variable which could throw him is the hard, perhaps suicidal, surge to pass him 800 in. Who could do it? Honestly, Habz and Reynold Cheruiyot have the greatest shifting abilities. The fitter guys don’t really change gears dramatically. Habz is not an aggressive racer so I don’t see it. Reynold idolizes Tim - is it possible the Kenyans get all 3 in and he’s instructed to make a hard pass from 800-900 in? Could he pull that off? I don’t know. As you say the safer assumption is Jakob sets a hard, unrelenting pace and everyone else ends up fighting too hard for position behind him to challenge him.
If in the 1500 final I don’t see all 3 Kenyans stalking Jakob by 500 meters in I don’t really see anyone pulling it off solo without someone running obstruction.
Re Sydney I sort of agree, sort of don't - even though for the Ingebrigtsen discussion it's irrelevant. Yes from what we know now, going out in 54.1 in a 1500m is horrific "pacing" - unless you are in 3.22 shape, but that was the way it was done back in that era. Sub 55 opening laps after even crazier opening 200's were commonplace for El G and it actually played into his strength. He of course had that covert 800m power combined with the best threshold of anyone so he could essentially put the field over the edge in the first 400m without doing it to himself. I mean he did basically the same thing in Seville a year earlier at the worlds (54.3) and ran 3.27 - I think by his own admission he was just over-cooked physically and emotionally heading into Sydney and had a bad day that Ngeny was able to capitalize on.
You are right though, I don't know who in the field has ability to surge even once on him like Wightmann did and that links with your point about the best guys not being able to change gears anymore. Wightmann could because he is a world class 800m guy honestly capable of winning the world title at that distance (as evidenced by his win in Monaco last year in 1.43) and he has the physical tools to accelerate at points in the race beyond his threshold and the strength to then settle back to pace and hold on. But this new era of 1500m runners are more 1500/3000m/5000m guys and don't have that. Tim C is the outlier because he's also run 1.43.1 but he doesn't strike me as a guy that has any ability to change gears and frankly his 1.43 800m PR is well, hmm, another discussion. Either way he's not the same guy he was 3-4 years ago.
Could the Kenyans team up and do what they did to Morceli in 92? (Watch this race and see how giant David Kibet shaparones Morceli the whole way on his outside and in front of him not behind which just keeps him blanketed until Morceli freaks out with 250 to go and makes one of the worst tactical moves in the history of the event as he basically sidesteps out to lane 3 in order to get position). They could but they would have to really think about how to do this because they would have to be very crafty in the first 300m to get someone on his outside which is tough because Jakob runs the best first 150m of any 1500m runner in history (never gets out too hard, always knows where to make the move to the front of the field).
It's just too many things. I don't think we have the right athletes in the right shape this season and I think some key tactical things need to happen right at the start of the race which is hard when guys are fired up and excited. And of course once you are in out there in the race it's really hard to think on the fly about things (it's more intuition and subconscious). So for me I still land on Jakob having to make a big blunder this time around (like Eugene) and even then I'm not sure if there is someone who could take advantage of it.
Do not forget Narve Gilje Nordås. He is relatively new in the game and has learned a lot from his runs in Oslo and London, due to his very slow openings . He has been the fastest at the last 800s both times. And knows that his third round in London was too fast: 54.6. So in the final he will stay closer to Jakob, Katir, Kerr and Nuguse during the race.
2022 3:36.23 2023 3:29.47
Where are you Coevett and the others "most obvious doper" hater?
Well I have been in confrontation with Coevett. He owes me an apology. Have I ever accused runners of doping? Not so. So why do you write me "and the others "most obvious doper" hater? Please explain.
Narve GN was quite capable of running faster in 2022. 3:36.23, a race that he won. In 2022 he was consentrated on 5000. His potential on 1500 was obvious when he ran the last 1000 at 3000 indoors early 2021: 2.22:56. At least I thought so.
J Ingebrigtsen versus any one 1500m runner, J Ingebrigtsen over 90% likely to prevail. J Ingebrigtsen versus the field? The field at least 30 percent likely to prevail.
* J Ingebrigtsen has not been as dominating as was Steve Ovett heading into 1980 Summer Olympics men's 1500m final.
* Sydney Maree, 1983 W.C. 1500m failed to make 1500m final even though Sydney Maree held 1500m w.r. at the time of 1983 World Championships. J Ingebrightsen does not hold 1500m world record.
* Steve Ovett was exactly three weeks away from breaking 1500m world record at the time of 1983 W.C. 1500m final, finished 4th.
* 1992 Summer Olympics, Noureddine Morceli was the fastest 1500m man. He was no factor, 1500m final.
* Hicham el Guerrouj lost two Olympic 1500m final, 1996 & 2000.
Will Stewart McSweyn ruin any chance of earning a medal by pacing J I through 800m in 1:51.xx?
So you think that J.I is only a 70% chance to win this race? Hmm, okay.
I mean what you've done is cherry-pick moments to bolster your narrative - here might be some counter points to those to show it's not this simple.
re Ovett - how are you calculating "dominance"? This is very confusing to me. This season we have seen J.I easily win every race he's been in. He blew the doors off a WR that while wasn't insanely tough, he did so in legitimately approaching a WR of a shorter distance (the 3000m) en-route that many people thought could be in the womens 400/800 category of "ridiculous records of certain era's that simply can't be broken in todays climate". He's also run under 3.28 twice. Ovett didn't lose in the lead up to Moscow but how you can say that's a more dominant buildup than this from Jakob is beyond me but you can always try and explain that one I'm all ears.
You're comparing Sydney Maree to Jakob? Huh? You might have had a point had Jakob not already won the Olympic 1500m title, a world 5000m title and world silver in the 1500m as. Maree was a guy that had one great race in his career at it was that afternoon in Koln. Jakobs "worst" championship performances (2019 where he was 4th in the 1500 and 5th in 5000m) are as good as Marees best (5th in the 5000m in '88).
Ovett and the 1983 WC to WR thing? This is beyond obscure but sure. Ovett had been injured that season (and never the same since he ran into the infamous church railing). Firstly it's not inconceivable that an athlete like Ovett could improve dramatically in 3 weeks coming off injury. Secondly he finished 4th in Helsinki so it's not like he wasn't even in the mix. Thirdly he was behind some okay runners there (Cram? Aouita?) - the likes of whom simply aren't around today and finally the WR wasn't exactly that developed back then - he ran 3.30.77 on the weird old Rieti track.
Morceli 92, Hicham 2000 (you can't seriously be counting a fall as a "loss" in the same way as getting beat at your best can you?) - well this one is the easiest. Morceli and El G were still the best milers in those races. No they didn't win - but winning the Olympics for those guys was more mental than it was physical. Morceli ran the worst tactical race of his life, Hicham was emotionally frazzled under the pressure of "needing" to win and probably ran his worst race of his career. The difference? This is a world champs and not an Olympics and even if it was, Jakob last time I checked already won the 1500m at the Olympics. So it's doubtful that Jakob will be either emotionally frazzled going into this or will be so nervous he runs the worst tactical race of his career (which in the way races are run these days is way more difficult to have).
McSweyn doesn't even need to make the final and Jakob can front run 1.51.X and still win this comfortably.
Re Sydney I sort of agree, sort of don't - even though for the Ingebrigtsen discussion it's irrelevant. Yes from what we know now, going out in 54.1 in a 1500m is horrific "pacing" - unless you are in 3.22 shape, but that was the way it was done back in that era. Sub 55 opening laps after even crazier opening 200's were commonplace for El G and it actually played into his strength. He of course had that covert 800m power combined with the best threshold of anyone so he could essentially put the field over the edge in the first 400m without doing it to himself. I mean he did basically the same thing in Seville a year earlier at the worlds (54.3) and ran 3.27 - I think by his own admission he was just over-cooked physically and emotionally heading into Sydney and had a bad day that Ngeny was able to capitalize on.
You are right though, I don't know who in the field has ability to surge even once on him like Wightmann did and that links with your point about the best guys not being able to change gears anymore. Wightmann could because he is a world class 800m guy honestly capable of winning the world title at that distance (as evidenced by his win in Monaco last year in 1.43) and he has the physical tools to accelerate at points in the race beyond his threshold and the strength to then settle back to pace and hold on. But this new era of 1500m runners are more 1500/3000m/5000m guys and don't have that. Tim C is the outlier because he's also run 1.43.1 but he doesn't strike me as a guy that has any ability to change gears and frankly his 1.43 800m PR is well, hmm, another discussion. Either way he's not the same guy he was 3-4 years ago.
Could the Kenyans team up and do what they did to Morceli in 92? (Watch this race and see how giant David Kibet shaparones Morceli the whole way on his outside and in front of him not behind which just keeps him blanketed until Morceli freaks out with 250 to go and makes one of the worst tactical moves in the history of the event as he basically sidesteps out to lane 3 in order to get position). They could but they would have to really think about how to do this because they would have to be very crafty in the first 300m to get someone on his outside which is tough because Jakob runs the best first 150m of any 1500m runner in history (never gets out too hard, always knows where to make the move to the front of the field).
It's just too many things. I don't think we have the right athletes in the right shape this season and I think some key tactical things need to happen right at the start of the race which is hard when guys are fired up and excited. And of course once you are in out there in the race it's really hard to think on the fly about things (it's more intuition and subconscious). So for me I still land on Jakob having to make a big blunder this time around (like Eugene) and even then I'm not sure if there is someone who could take advantage of it.
Very good analysis. I bolded the part that I think threatens the chances of the Kenyan team strategy the most.
Kipsang in particular I think has exhibited really bad tactical instincts. He is really good when he can turn his brain off, and we saw him run 3:29.1 in Silesia. His schedule this year has been way more manageable. I'd not be surprised if he's in 3:28-low shape and fully cooking by Budapest, but also not surprised if he gets to the final and does something boneheaded (e.g. drop from 4th to 8th in the 3rd lap, paces Jakob unnecessarily early on, or runs the entire first 3 laps in lane 2).
Now, as far as other runners in the field. I trust Katir, Mechaal and Kerr maybe the most to lay off the pace early but be in strong position with a lap to go. Nuguse/Tim I could see running a fair bit extra early on to try to protect position near Jakob. I'd say Reynold, Nordas and Gourley are more wild cards as I don't know what their race plan would be. It'll be interesting if the race goes single-file behind Jakob or there's impatience/bunching.
Nordas race plan is to run faster for the first 400 and stay closer to the big guys than he did in Oslo and London. Both times he was the fastest at the last 800. Nobody else under 1:50. In Oslo: 1:49.70, in London 1:49.54.
The leading contenders likely to be in the final should get together (minus Jakob) and decide that what is best for the group is to let Jakob lead from the gun. While a faster pace helps Jakob, he is unlikely to lay down 55s from the front. So if he's leading, he might run a more modest pace allowing one of the others to outkick him at the tape.
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Jakob is about the surest pick to win any track event, IMHO. Mondo & Crouser in the field events.
No. Faith Kipyegon is a better pick to win on the track. She has three things Jakob doesn't have: 1) the WR in the event, 2) a great kick, and 3) a larger margin of victory over her opponents this year.
Re Sydney I sort of agree, sort of don't - even though for the Ingebrigtsen discussion it's irrelevant. Yes from what we know now, going out in 54.1 in a 1500m is horrific "pacing" - unless you are in 3.22 shape, but that was the way it was done back in that era. Sub 55 opening laps after even crazier opening 200's were commonplace for El G and it actually played into his strength. He of course had that covert 800m power combined with the best threshold of anyone so he could essentially put the field over the edge in the first 400m without doing it to himself. I mean he did basically the same thing in Seville a year earlier at the worlds (54.3) and ran 3.27 - I think by his own admission he was just over-cooked physically and emotionally heading into Sydney and had a bad day that Ngeny was able to capitalize on.
You are right though, I don't know who in the field has ability to surge even once on him like Wightmann did and that links with your point about the best guys not being able to change gears anymore. Wightmann could because he is a world class 800m guy honestly capable of winning the world title at that distance (as evidenced by his win in Monaco last year in 1.43) and he has the physical tools to accelerate at points in the race beyond his threshold and the strength to then settle back to pace and hold on. But this new era of 1500m runners are more 1500/3000m/5000m guys and don't have that. Tim C is the outlier because he's also run 1.43.1 but he doesn't strike me as a guy that has any ability to change gears and frankly his 1.43 800m PR is well, hmm, another discussion. Either way he's not the same guy he was 3-4 years ago.
Could the Kenyans team up and do what they did to Morceli in 92? (Watch this race and see how giant David Kibet shaparones Morceli the whole way on his outside and in front of him not behind which just keeps him blanketed until Morceli freaks out with 250 to go and makes one of the worst tactical moves in the history of the event as he basically sidesteps out to lane 3 in order to get position). They could but they would have to really think about how to do this because they would have to be very crafty in the first 300m to get someone on his outside which is tough because Jakob runs the best first 150m of any 1500m runner in history (never gets out too hard, always knows where to make the move to the front of the field).
It's just too many things. I don't think we have the right athletes in the right shape this season and I think some key tactical things need to happen right at the start of the race which is hard when guys are fired up and excited. And of course once you are in out there in the race it's really hard to think on the fly about things (it's more intuition and subconscious). So for me I still land on Jakob having to make a big blunder this time around (like Eugene) and even then I'm not sure if there is someone who could take advantage of it.
Very good analysis. I bolded the part that I think threatens the chances of the Kenyan team strategy the most.
Kipsang in particular I think has exhibited really bad tactical instincts. He is really good when he can turn his brain off, and we saw him run 3:29.1 in Silesia. His schedule this year has been way more manageable. I'd not be surprised if he's in 3:28-low shape and fully cooking by Budapest, but also not surprised if he gets to the final and does something boneheaded (e.g. drop from 4th to 8th in the 3rd lap, paces Jakob unnecessarily early on, or runs the entire first 3 laps in lane 2).
Now, as far as other runners in the field. I trust Katir, Mechaal and Kerr maybe the most to lay off the pace early but be in strong position with a lap to go. Nuguse/Tim I could see running a fair bit extra early on to try to protect position near Jakob. I'd say Reynold, Nordas and Gourley are more wild cards as I don't know what their race plan would be. It'll be interesting if the race goes single-file behind Jakob or there's impatience/bunching.
Another poster alluded to this as well but the "Kenyan team tactics" are, just like Portland Oregon, the dream of the 90's.
I also can't remember a single race in the last 10-15 years where either the Kenyans or the Ethiopians worked together to thwart a favorite (Farah was the best example). I remember talking to an agent about this a few years ago and we had the same hypothesis - when athlete management groups really came to the forefront of the sport (as in you absolutely needed to be with a Kim McDonald, Jos Hermens etc) in the late 90's, patriotic allegiance etc started to slip away too. Athletes listened more to their agents than their national team coaches (not that they need to listen to anyone) because the agent hold the purse strings and they don't want or need athletes sacrificing themselves for the good of someone else. Especially the Kenyans who were and are extremely diverse in their management groups vs say the best Moroccan MD runners who use to all be with El G's agent and hence had no problem going out and pacing for him (like in 99 and 00 but then even that stopped).
In the past with more tactical championship 1500m races I would always say, "it doesn't matter how slow it is, everyone backs their kick" (even the guys who would get blown out of the water in the last 200) - but the way the event has evolved to be run now it doesn't really matter. Doha was 1.51.6 at 800, Tokyo 1.51.7 and Eugene 1.51.9 - you don't have to worry about backing your kick at that pace because at best you might have a 20m window at best to muster up any sort of acceleration if you get lucky and the pace eases ever so slightly (Like Jake last year) - which is why the strongest guy is almost certainly going to win. And nobody right now is stronger than, well we know who...