She has zero chance of winning a gold medal at worlds. She can't beat faith or Gudaf Tsegay in the 1500m or 5000 and with that super fast 5k against Faith it appears that Gidey is in incredible shape as well and poised to repeat the 10 world championship win. Hasan needs to concentrate on the marathon.
She has zero chance of winning a gold medal at worlds. She can't beat faith or Gudaf Tsegay in the 1500m or 5000 and with that super fast 5k against Faith it appears that Gidey is in incredible shape as well and poised to repeat the 10 world championship win. Hasan needs to concentrate on the marathon.
Yeah I can’t imagine Hassan will run all three. Her best bet is definitely in the 10000m and her worst is the 1500m. But regardless she is no longer the favourite in any of the three events. I know for a fact (inside info) that Letesenbet will do amazing things in the 10000m this time around as she knows she cannot leave it a last 400m sprint. Also Gudaf Tsegay has run 29.29 all alone to win the Ethiopian trials in Spain and also has a great finish. Expect an Almaz Ayana type of race with Gidey reprising the role of Ayana……
She has zero chance of winning a gold medal at worlds. She can't beat faith or Gudaf Tsegay in the 1500m or 5000 and with that super fast 5k against Faith it appears that Gidey is in incredible shape as well and poised to repeat the 10 world championship win. Hasan needs to concentrate on the marathon.
Yeah I can’t imagine Hassan will run all three. Her best bet is definitely in the 10000m and her worst is the 1500m. But regardless she is no longer the favourite in any of the three events. I know for a fact (inside info) that Letesenbet will do amazing things in the 10000m this time around as she knows she cannot leave it a last 400m sprint. Also Gudaf Tsegay has run 29.29 all alone to win the Ethiopian trials in Spain and also has a great finish. Expect an Almaz Ayana type of race with Gidey reprising the role of Ayana……
Sifan does not have “zero chance” of winning a gold at Worlds and she doesn’t need to concentrate on the marathon like trackfangirl said, both are ridiculous statements.
I also doubt she will contest the 1500 until we see her on the start line. And in a weird way I think it would be a little lame if she took bronze in the 10k and placed 3rd-5th in the 1500 and 5k, instead of committing to giving herself the best shot at winning golds in the 10k and 5k. It would almost be like giving herself an “out” for not winning anything.
The 10k looks to be an awesome race. Gidey, Tsegay and Hassan are remarkably close to equal favorites IMO, and they obviously have different strengths.
Yeah I can’t imagine Hassan will run all three. Her best bet is definitely in the 10000m and her worst is the 1500m. But regardless she is no longer the favourite in any of the three events. I know for a fact (inside info) that Letesenbet will do amazing things in the 10000m this time around as she knows she cannot leave it a last 400m sprint. Also Gudaf Tsegay has run 29.29 all alone to win the Ethiopian trials in Spain and also has a great finish. Expect an Almaz Ayana type of race with Gidey reprising the role of Ayana……
Sifan does not have “zero chance” of winning a gold at Worlds and she doesn’t need to concentrate on the marathon like trackfangirl said, both are ridiculous statements.
I also doubt she will contest the 1500 until we see her on the start line. And in a weird way I think it would be a little lame if she took bronze in the 10k and placed 3rd-5th in the 1500 and 5k, instead of committing to giving herself the best shot at winning golds in the 10k and 5k. It would almost be like giving herself an “out” for not winning anything.
The 10k looks to be an awesome race. Gidey, Tsegay and Hassan are remarkably close to equal favorites IMO, and they obviously have different strengths.
Close to zero chance to win the 1500 of course, but the other races are wide open. Hassan lost the London 5000 to Tsegay and Chebet, but it was a close race and she chose to lead it much of the way. With a few more weeks of sharpening her close, no reason to think she can’t beat either of them or both. She might not, but zero chance, c’mon, that’s disrespectful. Kipyegon might be unbeatable, but let’s see. The 10 is truly wide open and Hassan has a great chance to win.
This post was edited 57 seconds after it was posted.
Gidey is planning to take it out hard? Amazing if true. I'll be in the stadium for this race, would be great to witness something special!
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Gidey out kicked all the kickers at last championship, where did you get she is taking it out hard this year?
At the last championship Gidey didnt so much outkick her rivals but she did manage to hold her own. To me “outkicked” indicates she won comprehensively goi g away from her rivals to the finish. Fact is Obiri and Kipkemboi were closing her down and had the race been another few metres she would have won bronze.
point I’m trying to make is that relying on her kick is not an odds on percentage game for Gidey. She is a time trial runner capable of setting a devastating and metronomic pace throughout. All of her records have been run this way. I don’t know if it’s a confidence issue as to why she doesn’t run this way in championship races. She trains exclusively with with male pacers in front of her. If I were her coach I would be getting the male pacers to run behind her and encourage her to run ahead at a fast tempo. Signs are good though as she ran 14.07 in Paris as a front runner and it would have been faster if she hadn’t deliberately slowed to encourage Kipyegon to take up the pacesetting on the penultimate lap. if Gidey approaches the 10k in Budapest as a world record attempt then I don’t see anyone beating her. She does need to change up her historic approach to track running if she is to shine. Ironically when she retires I believe she will have the greatest road running record of anyone. That’s where her greatness will be fully realised.
Gidey out kicked all the kickers at last championship, where did you get she is taking it out hard this year?
At the last championship Gidey didnt so much outkick her rivals but she did manage to hold her own. To me “outkicked” indicates she won comprehensively goi g away from her rivals to the finish. Fact is Obiri and Kipkemboi were closing her down and had the race been another few metres she would have won bronze.
point I’m trying to make is that relying on her kick is not an odds on percentage game for Gidey. She is a time trial runner capable of setting a devastating and metronomic pace throughout. All of her records have been run this way. I don’t know if it’s a confidence issue as to why she doesn’t run this way in championship races. She trains exclusively with with male pacers in front of her. If I were her coach I would be getting the male pacers to run behind her and encourage her to run ahead at a fast tempo. Signs are good though as she ran 14.07 in Paris as a front runner and it would have been faster if she hadn’t deliberately slowed to encourage Kipyegon to take up the pacesetting on the penultimate lap. if Gidey approaches the 10k in Budapest as a world record attempt then I don’t see anyone beating her. She does need to change up her historic approach to track running if she is to shine. Ironically when she retires I believe she will have the greatest road running record of anyone. That’s where her greatness will be fully realised.
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You are correct in that Gidey best hope is a pace no one else can hold from start to finish. Gidey and Tsegay's camp need to decide to work together and go out in 14:32-34 and then start racing and the strongest person wins. That surely would produce the first sub 29 minute 10000m by a female. There would be a lot of crash and burn competitors if the Ethiopian duo did work like that together.
At the last championship Gidey didnt so much outkick her rivals but she did manage to hold her own. To me “outkicked” indicates she won comprehensively goi g away from her rivals to the finish. Fact is Obiri and Kipkemboi were closing her down and had the race been another few metres she would have won bronze.
point I’m trying to make is that relying on her kick is not an odds on percentage game for Gidey. She is a time trial runner capable of setting a devastating and metronomic pace throughout. All of her records have been run this way. I don’t know if it’s a confidence issue as to why she doesn’t run this way in championship races. She trains exclusively with with male pacers in front of her. If I were her coach I would be getting the male pacers to run behind her and encourage her to run ahead at a fast tempo. Signs are good though as she ran 14.07 in Paris as a front runner and it would have been faster if she hadn’t deliberately slowed to encourage Kipyegon to take up the pacesetting on the penultimate lap. if Gidey approaches the 10k in Budapest as a world record attempt then I don’t see anyone beating her. She does need to change up her historic approach to track running if she is to shine. Ironically when she retires I believe she will have the greatest road running record of anyone. That’s where her greatness will be fully realised.
....
You are correct in that Gidey best hope is a pace no one else can hold from start to finish. Gidey and Tsegay's camp need to decide to work together and go out in 14:32-34 and then start racing and the strongest person wins. That surely would produce the first sub 29 minute 10000m by a female. There would be a lot of crash and burn competitors if the Ethiopian duo did work like that together.
Yes don't underestimate Tsegay she can win it either way but I still feel it is Gideys to lose. I expect something special and although it will be a warm evening in Budapest we should see a sub 29.20 time if they go hard.
Care to make one of your famous predictions VIPAM?
If there was a Almaz Ayana type runner in the 10000m field I would guarantee a sub 29 as there are 3 women capable of sub 29. Almaz Ayana almost always went very early in her 5000 or 10000m The deciding thing is will Tsegay run the 10000m and if so how long will she or Gidey wait before injecting lethal splits?
Budapest average high in August: 82
Temp should be low - mid 70's race time, which doesn't rule out the possibility of an extremely fast race
Sifan does not have “zero chance” of winning a gold at Worlds and she doesn’t need to concentrate on the marathon like trackfangirl said, both are ridiculous statements.
I also doubt she will contest the 1500 until we see her on the start line. And in a weird way I think it would be a little lame if she took bronze in the 10k and placed 3rd-5th in the 1500 and 5k, instead of committing to giving herself the best shot at winning golds in the 10k and 5k. It would almost be like giving herself an “out” for not winning anything.
The 10k looks to be an awesome race. Gidey, Tsegay and Hassan are remarkably close to equal favorites IMO, and they obviously have different strengths.
Close to zero chance to win the 1500 of course, but the other races are wide open. Hassan lost the London 5000 to Tsegay and Chebet, but it was a close race and she chose to lead it much of the way. With a few more weeks of sharpening her close, no reason to think she can’t beat either of them or both. She might not, but zero chance, c’mon, that’s disrespectful. Kipyegon might be unbeatable, but let’s see. The 10 is truly wide open and Hassan has a great chance to win.
Her chances in the 5000 depend a lot of what events she runs prior. We know Kipyegon is running the 1500, Tsegay the 10000 and Chebet is only running the 5000. If Hassan decides to run both the 1500 AND 10000 she will be at a disadvantage in the 5000 relative to her key competitors and her chances of Gold are small, or at least a lot less.
So is it worth running the 1500? I don't see it, unless she thinks she can actually defeat her long-time nemesis. But the last time Faith competed she was in 3:50 shape and Hassan has done nothing this season to indicate she is anywhere near that level. But of course anything can happen in a race.
Maybe this is what Hassan needs to keep her head in the game?
i think it’s cool when athletes go for big, improbable things. I wish someone had suggested to Athing Mu that she take a year off from the 800 and try the 400/1500 double, where she’d have an outside chance of making history, Shohei Ohtani-style. Who cares if it works? I admire people who have guts either way.
related: Tyler Cowen and Paul Graham on being ambitious
I've written before that the magic of YC is in the ability to increase people's ambitions.
Here is a fascinating exploration of this topic from @tylercowen and @paulg on this topic on the podcast this morning.
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