You think almost everyone undervalues Katir and overvalues Jakob. Actually they are both probably roughly properly rated overall but it is true that Jakob is slightly overrated, but only slightly, and Katir may be slightly underrated, but only slightly. The bigger difference is that almost everyone thinks Katir is doping but they don’t accuse Jakob as much, when the truth is if Katir is doping, Jakob likely is too.
When dropping doping accusations you throw all your credibility to the ground. It's easy to throw accusations but it's an arm with two sides.
You worship Katir. You have no more objectivity than the Jakob fanboys. You and they are a joke to me.
I think one or both of you said the only way to (maybe) break Jakob is to inject surges of pace throughout the race and disrupt his rhythm and force him to keep covering moves. Even a super fast but steady pace, or one that ramps up to a blistering pace over a K or two is not likely to cause Jakob much trouble and he’ll just sit and then pounce. Is that how you still see it? Was it that sudden surges and then a relaxation of the pace, and then repeat surges might be better tolerated by guys like Kiplimo or Aregawi? Would they be able to do this sort of thing without throwing away their chance at the end?
I definitely didn’t say that. I think that’s more likely a good way to hand Jakob the race because he can take a page out of the Mo Farah playbook, where he calls their bluff and gradually covers their surges with an even pace while they waste energy surging.
I know I’ve said one scenario I can imagine is that someone makes a big move from a long way out and Jakob makes the mistake of being overconfident and spotting the leaders too much of a lead, and they don’t let up until the finish. Otherwise, I don’t think it’s impossible for one of the many sub-12:50 guys to have a great day and beat Jakob by closing a sub-13 race in 52-53. Jakob’s the favorite but there’s strength in numbers.
I think one or both of you said the only way to (maybe) break Jakob is to inject surges of pace throughout the race and disrupt his rhythm and force him to keep covering moves. Even a super fast but steady pace, or one that ramps up to a blistering pace over a K or two is not likely to cause Jakob much trouble and he’ll just sit and then pounce. Is that how you still see it? Was it that sudden surges and then a relaxation of the pace, and then repeat surges might be better tolerated by guys like Kiplimo or Aregawi? Would they be able to do this sort of thing without throwing away their chance at the end?
Jakob is only slightly better than the next best guy at 5000m. He will have his hands full. We cannot know that he will win no matter the tactic. The best way to defeat him is to hunt him down. There are several who could do it. When Hicham took the lead in 2003 at WC 5000m with about 900m left, most people thought the 3:26 runner was almost a lock. He wasn’t.
True of course. That 2003 race was a funny one if I recall. Bekele was blasting it at first and then he slowed and then Kipchoge led and picked it up and then it slowed and then El G took the lead and then of course he lost in the end. It was a fast race for 2003, but it was not a steady race, rather one with surges.
I definitely didn’t say that. I think that’s more likely a good way to hand Jakob the race because he can take a page out of the Mo Farah playbook, where he calls their bluff and gradually covers their surges with an even pace while they waste energy surging.
I know I’ve said one scenario I can imagine is that someone makes a big move from a long way out and Jakob makes the mistake of being overconfident and spotting the leaders too much of a lead, and they don’t let up until the finish. Otherwise, I don’t think it’s impossible for one of the many sub-12:50 guys to have a great day and beat Jakob by closing a sub-13 race in 52-53. Jakob’s the favorite but there’s strength in numbers.
So you feel an injection of pace always hurts the injector of the pace more than any of the others unless the move is definitive and sustained? I’m not arguing, just interested. Somebody made the argument that some of the guys, like the xc greats like Kiplimo or Aregawi (not that Jakob is so shabby at xc either) would have a differential benefit from an irregular pace as compared to Jakob. Maybe that’s true, but not if they are the ones leading the surge…..
So you feel an injection of pace always hurts the injector of the pace more than any of the others unless the move is definitive and sustained? I’m not arguing, just interested. Somebody made the argument that some of the guys, like the xc greats like Kiplimo or Aregawi (not that Jakob is so shabby at xc either) would have a differential benefit from an irregular pace as compared to Jakob. Maybe that’s true, but not if they are the ones leading the surge…..
I’d tend to agree with that premise. And if you’re Aregawi/Kiplimo you should have it be sustained. It’s both of their strengths - Kiplimo HM World Record, Aregawi numerous breakaway/solo efforts. There’re a couple of guys who seem to work well with the yo-yo pace sort of tactic even if it’s slightly inefficient (Barega when he’s on, Cheptegei to some degree, Krop). But I’d bet on Katir/Jakob running smart and staying patient. So with 5/6 laps to go just drop a 60, and go pretty relentless 60-61s from there. If Jakob/Katir/Kejelcha are mid-pack as expected they’ll maybe methodically get closer but might expend a lot of energy to get back in it.
I definitely didn’t say that. I think that’s more likely a good way to hand Jakob the race because he can take a page out of the Mo Farah playbook, where he calls their bluff and gradually covers their surges with an even pace while they waste energy surging.
I know I’ve said one scenario I can imagine is that someone makes a big move from a long way out and Jakob makes the mistake of being overconfident and spotting the leaders too much of a lead, and they don’t let up until the finish. Otherwise, I don’t think it’s impossible for one of the many sub-12:50 guys to have a great day and beat Jakob by closing a sub-13 race in 52-53. Jakob’s the favorite but there’s strength in numbers.
So you feel an injection of pace always hurts the injector of the pace more than any of the others unless the move is definitive and sustained? I’m not arguing, just interested. Somebody made the argument that some of the guys, like the xc greats like Kiplimo or Aregawi (not that Jakob is so shabby at xc either) would have a differential benefit from an irregular pace as compared to Jakob. Maybe that’s true, but not if they are the ones leading the surge…..
The main problem with the plan of periodic surging is that Jakob has already fallen for it (from Kipsang and Cheruiyot in Eugene last year), and he immediately recognised it as a f**k up on his part. He won't fall for but again. He'll let them surge, ride their shoulders, and grind them down over the last km
So you feel an injection of pace always hurts the injector of the pace more than any of the others unless the move is definitive and sustained? I’m not arguing, just interested. Somebody made the argument that some of the guys, like the xc greats like Kiplimo or Aregawi (not that Jakob is so shabby at xc either) would have a differential benefit from an irregular pace as compared to Jakob. Maybe that’s true, but not if they are the ones leading the surge…..
I’d tend to agree with that premise. And if you’re Aregawi/Kiplimo you should have it be sustained. It’s both of their strengths - Kiplimo HM World Record, Aregawi numerous breakaway/solo efforts. There’re a couple of guys who seem to work well with the yo-yo pace sort of tactic even if it’s slightly inefficient (Barega when he’s on, Cheptegei to some degree, Krop). But I’d bet on Katir/Jakob running smart and staying patient. So with 5/6 laps to go just drop a 60, and go pretty relentless 60-61s from there. If Jakob/Katir/Kejelcha are mid-pack as expected they’ll maybe methodically get closer but might expend a lot of energy to get back in it.
Surging is not the answer per se. The answer is to hunt Jakob down. IF the race was an all out open 400m among the 5000m contestants, who wins? I am not sure.
I’d tend to agree with that premise. And if you’re Aregawi/Kiplimo you should have it be sustained. It’s both of their strengths - Kiplimo HM World Record, Aregawi numerous breakaway/solo efforts. There’re a couple of guys who seem to work well with the yo-yo pace sort of tactic even if it’s slightly inefficient (Barega when he’s on, Cheptegei to some degree, Krop). But I’d bet on Katir/Jakob running smart and staying patient. So with 5/6 laps to go just drop a 60, and go pretty relentless 60-61s from there. If Jakob/Katir/Kejelcha are mid-pack as expected they’ll maybe methodically get closer but might expend a lot of energy to get back in it.
Surging is not the answer per se. The answer is to hunt Jakob down. IF the race was an all out open 400m among the 5000m contestants, who wins? I am not sure.
Surging is not the answer per se. The answer is to hunt Jakob down. IF the race was an all out open 400m among the 5000m contestants, who wins? I am not sure.
Not surging - it’s taking the race to Jakob. He showed last year if the race is not super fast resulting in close to an all-out 600-800 he’ll win. To upset that you get the jump on him because he will not let you jog for 4600. He’ll let you jog for 4200 and then cruise his 1500 pace.
This post was edited 38 seconds after it was posted.
Sorry, but this is hopelessly naive. Even the Kenyan number 3 runner still thinks they can medal. No one is going to that starting line as a de facto pacer. Every single race during the Mo Farah era we heard that "the East Africans" were going to work together to grind him down, and every race he executed his tactics because in the end, they all started dreaming of the medal. Jakob is smart enough to know he doesn't need to do anything but stay composed for 4k then wind it up.
Stephen Kissa did for Uganda in the 10K once. Kenya tried Team tactics last year, but it seemed Ebenyo (3rd guy again this year) was feeling like crap or not on board. His teammates seemed to be imploring him to help with the lead. Ugandas 3rd this year may be either a not fully fit Oscar Chelimo/someone else (unlikely they make the final). Kenya has Cornelius Kemboi as a 4th who is maybe younger, more willing to execute the team tactics. Unsure if he’d make the final. If Kenya gets 4 I don’t think a steadily paced first 2k is impossible.
Yes, Kissa in Tokyo is the only time I've seen this executed in the post-Geb era. And it flopped hard because of the weather. Other attempts at team tactics (e.g. 2013 Worlds) broke down as the medals came into view
Surging is not the answer per se. The answer is to hunt Jakob down. IF the race was an all out open 400m among the 5000m contestants, who wins? I am not sure.
Not surging - it’s taking the race to Jakob. He showed last year if the race is not super fast resulting in close to an all-out 600-800 he’ll win. To upset that you get the jump on him because he will not let you jog for 4600. He’ll let you jog for 4200 and then cruise his 1500 pace.
I get what you’re saying but there are so many variables. If 2016 Rio were run similarly 10 times, Centro doesn’t win all 10. Similarly in a slowish 5000m, Jakob doesn’t win 10/10 times. I would rather hunt him down. Breaking away from him is a very tall task. Hunting him down is also but with 5 hunters I could see one of them getting the kill. We all may be surprised on race day. That is what keeps us watching.
I get what you’re saying but there are so many variables. If 2016 Rio were run similarly 10 times, Centro doesn’t win all 10. Similarly in a slowish 5000m, Jakob doesn’t win 10/10 times. I would rather hunt him down. Breaking away from him is a very tall task. Hunting him down is also but with 5 hunters I could see one of them getting the kill. We all may be surprised on race day. That is what keeps us watching.
I think the 1500 will be an interesting case study. Will everyone try to go with him if he sets a hot pace? Will someone emerge and come close (or succeed) to beating him like Wightman? Or does everyone spend so much time jockeying that the medalists end up being guys who were patient and ran clean 3:29 type races mid-pack. Ultimately if you defer too much behind a good front runner and spend all your time fighting for position that works right into their hands. Especially with Kiplimo/Aregawi/Kejelcha/Kipkorir who I don’t trust as much from a positioning/navigating the pack standpoint. So for the above 4 I don’t think passivity is necessarily the best especially if they’re willing to work together a little bit. For Cheptegei/Krop/Katir/Gebrhiwet/Grijalva/Chelimo I see the argument to sit on him perhaps more.
Not surging - it’s taking the race to Jakob. He showed last year if the race is not super fast resulting in close to an all-out 600-800 he’ll win. To upset that you get the jump on him because he will not let you jog for 4600. He’ll let you jog for 4200 and then cruise his 1500 pace.
I get what you’re saying but there are so many variables. If 2016 Rio were run similarly 10 times, Centro doesn’t win all 10. Similarly in a slowish 5000m, Jakob doesn’t win 10/10 times. I would rather hunt him down. Breaking away from him is a very tall task. Hunting him down is also but with 5 hunters I could see one of them getting the kill. We all may be surprised on race day. That is what keeps us watching.
None of the others can even run 3000 m with Jakob all out, let alone 1500 or 1000. No matter what happens, Jakob is going to be with the leaders with 800 to 1000 to go, so the issue is how do you get to that point in the race where Jakob is no longer able to summon his clear advantage over the others to cover the distance remaining in the fastest time? How fast does the race have to be to that point, or how fast does race have to be from 3-4K to put the hurt on Jakob sufficient that he’s rendered vulnerable over the final K? How much does the first 3K matter, or is it all about the 4th km? Honestly, I’m not sure there is any reasonable or realistic answer to solving the Jakob puzzle.
This post was edited 36 seconds after it was posted.
I get what you’re saying but there are so many variables. If 2016 Rio were run similarly 10 times, Centro doesn’t win all 10. Similarly in a slowish 5000m, Jakob doesn’t win 10/10 times. I would rather hunt him down. Breaking away from him is a very tall task. Hunting him down is also but with 5 hunters I could see one of them getting the kill. We all may be surprised on race day. That is what keeps us watching.
None of the others can even run 3000 m with Jakob all out, let alone 1500 or 1000. No matter what happens, Jakob is going to be with the leaders with 800 to 1000 to go, so the issue is how do you get to that point in the race where Jakob is no longer able to summon his clear advantage over the others to cover the distance remaining in the fastest time? How fast does the race have to be to that point, or how fast does race have to be from 3-4K to put the hurt on Jakob sufficient that he’s rendered vulnerable over the final K? How much does the first 3K matter, or is it all about the 4th km? Honestly, I’m not sure there is any reasonable or realistic answer to solving the Jakob puzzle.
Well you raise an interesting point BUT 8 of the 13 sub 12:43 races were this year. How many of those guys could have run maybe 7:58 or so for 2 miles on that day? Probably a few. Or maybe they could run 7:23ish on those days. I am not sure but these 12:41ish guys have to make Jakob a little nervous.
I get what you’re saying but there are so many variables. If 2016 Rio were run similarly 10 times, Centro doesn’t win all 10. Similarly in a slowish 5000m, Jakob doesn’t win 10/10 times. I would rather hunt him down. Breaking away from him is a very tall task. Hunting him down is also but with 5 hunters I could see one of them getting the kill. We all may be surprised on race day. That is what keeps us watching.
I think the 1500 will be an interesting case study. Will everyone try to go with him if he sets a hot pace? Will someone emerge and come close (or succeed) to beating him like Wightman? Or does everyone spend so much time jockeying that the medalists end up being guys who were patient and ran clean 3:29 type races mid-pack. Ultimately if you defer too much behind a good front runner and spend all your time fighting for position that works right into their hands. Especially with Kiplimo/Aregawi/Kejelcha/Kipkorir who I don’t trust as much from a positioning/navigating the pack standpoint. So for the above 4 I don’t think passivity is necessarily the best especially if they’re willing to work together a little bit. For Cheptegei/Krop/Katir/Gebrhiwet/Grijalva/Chelimo I see the argument to sit on him perhaps more.
My prediction is that Jakob takes the lead in the 1500 by 400 m and just runs away from everybody and nobody will be left to challenge him at all over the last 150. The arrogant/confident few will try to hang with him at their own peril. Katir for sure, but I’m not sure who else will try. By 200 m to go it will become clear it was foolish to try and those that went for it will likely be run down and out of the medals. Jakob will not be threatened in the slightest and he’ll amaze us all by winning the final by at least a second in low 3:28 with no pacers. He’s that good this year.
And remember that if you can run 12:41, that means you are averaging 7:36.6 for 3000m pace and continuing for another 2000m. So every one of those sun 12:43 guy can probably run 7:25 or faster. Who is closed to Jakob in an 800m? This would tell me something about who might have an opportunity? Maybe it is Katir? He ran 1:51 in 2019 but he was a 3:37 guy then.
None of the others can even run 3000 m with Jakob all out, let alone 1500 or 1000. No matter what happens, Jakob is going to be with the leaders with 800 to 1000 to go, so the issue is how do you get to that point in the race where Jakob is no longer able to summon his clear advantage over the others to cover the distance remaining in the fastest time? How fast does the race have to be to that point, or how fast does race have to be from 3-4K to put the hurt on Jakob sufficient that he’s rendered vulnerable over the final K? How much does the first 3K matter, or is it all about the 4th km? Honestly, I’m not sure there is any reasonable or realistic answer to solving the Jakob puzzle.
Well you raise an interesting point BUT 8 of the 13 sub 12:43 races were this year. How many of those guys could have run maybe 7:58 or so for 2 miles on that day? Probably a few. Or maybe they could run 7:23ish on those days. I am not sure but these 12:41ish guys have to make Jakob a little nervous.
Jakob has blessed us fans by NOT running a 5000 this year. The mystery makes the upcoming drama that much more interesting. I would think a guy who runs 7:54 for 2 miles would have no problem at all running under 12:40 or even 12:35, but Jakob has left us all guessing. In the 1500, we’ve seen it over and over. I’m sorry, but I agree with Jakob, this year he is the rabbit. He’s just too strong and he’s going to able to front run it. In fact, he really did this in the last DL. For the most part the pacers were so far ahead, it was just Jakob and open track and he beat everybody with total ease.
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