What WRs could Jakob *not* threaten between 1500-10km?

Wrong idea.
The mechanics of running dont work like this.

I'm pretty sure his "goal" of setting a wr in every distance is just him saying that he have to believe in himself to be able to do what is nessesary to accomplish anything big. Setting a WR in every distance is possibly something that has been on his mind since he was a kid, and has kept him focused and motivated. Its one of those things that 99.999999% wont happen, but if you don't commit to it it 100% wont happen. I might be misremembereing, but I think his sister said something along the lines of "why should I dream of sub 3:50, I also want to accomplish a sub 3:30" when she was a kid, showing some of the same mindset. Ofc it would not happen, but you are more likely to go sub 3:50 than if you dream about a 3:55 (or burn out).

I feel like a WR in all of the "big" distances 1500, 5000, 10000 is unlikely, and I also think that deep down the championship golds matter more/just as much. With the compressed olympic schedule (2021-2024) the stars have aligned for him, maybe, to be able to be very competetive over three olympics, however this means that gap-years where he can prioritize the WR is far in between.

On the other hand, I think this year is a trial baloon for next year. If chasing fast times up untill a championship is working - both for setting new PR's and for accomplishing what he wants in the championship he will repeat it next year. Probably he will need a lot of races in 1500wr shape to actually set a 1500 wr, so that is the way to go.

Why do you think Jakob is a 1500/5k guy rather than 5k/10k guy? He’s horrible at the 800, the 1500 clearly isn’t his optimal event. Maybe it’s 3k, maybe it’s 5k, maybe it’s 10k, but until we get more data from him at longer races we don’t know, it’s safe to say the 1500 is the very bottom of his range yet we don’t know where he’s strongest. Look at Sifan Hassan, a lot of people would have pegged her as a 1500 runner (or 1500/5k) based on her performances years ago, and look what she does in the 10k and marathon.

I agree that Jakob could get all the WRs / WBs from 1500m to 10000m… But I don’t think he has (had the opportunity yet /given us, or himself) solid ground for judging his peak all out 10k capabilities…. Thus I suspect he hasn’t done any 10000m specific track workouts that give him confidence of sub 26.11, and his impressive European xc last year hadn’t fierce enough competition to say anything about WR capacity…

If Jakob is a Sifan Hassan type of runner (he might very well be) then I think he can beat the 10k WR. But we (and probably he himself) simply don’t know before he has run a real 10000m…

If he is more of a Mo Farah type I think his ceiling is around 26.40… But I don’t think Jakob is too heavy at all (that was neither Mo’s problem of course). And even in the half and full marathon I think people overestimate the weight problem -Gidey and Obiri f.ex aren’t the smallest or lightest on the roads… But I don’t think Jakob even have run a fast 20k in training, so we (or he) simply don’t know… (Saying that I agree with everything LarsL11 says about Jakob’s mindset in this thread).

I think Jakob had a “bad day” in Silesia. And that is the reason why I think he is extremely close to breaking the WR in both the 1500m and mile, in an optimally race…(Jakob said compared with Oslo he got lactate earlier and was significantly more fatigued afterwards).

The other events: Yes, I think he can break WRs here -but he needs specific steeple training. And of course there will be some uncertainty about him having his sweet spot in the 3000 or 5000m, but I think he also can take the latter…

I think he had a great day in Silesia, running a .81 second (significant) PB while closing in ~40.2. And that was with a world class competitor pacing to 1200m. Of course he’s going to have lactate earlier and be more fatigued as he runs faster/closer to his max capacity.

Thank you to JWH for the proposed definition of “threaten.” Great stuff as usual.

I agree with most of what you’ve written, WU20. The only thing I question is how much time he would need to threaten the steeple record. I agree that he has the ability to threaten that record if he dedicates himself to it; I just have no idea how long it would take. 3 months seems pretty quick though. I imagine someone like him might want to spend more time perfecting his technique.

It’s interesting to look at the last time he ran the steeple: he ran 8:26 at age 16. That same year, he ran 3:39, 3:56, 8:00, and 13:35. Since then, he’s officially dropped 36 seconds in the open 3000 (and we know he’s faster than that); so it’s plausible he could drop 33 seconds in the steeple.

Agree - 100%. No way is he a 10k man, though he could do some excellent times - nothing like a WR though. It's just too far for that body type, and other (very small-boned Africans in particular) have a huge advantage here + the talent. He'll max out at 5k, and even there his body type is a big disadvantage - he's got to be so much better to haul his package around compared to much lighter body types.

Like a lot of people, his 'ultimate' event is probably the 3k. Pity for him that they don't have it at major championships.

Most likely to threaten or set the 10,000 record compared to other records???

Absurd. YOU said 3k is his best event. He already showed he could beat that record.

He ran in great Steeplechase as a 16 year old.

Obviously he is more suited to 5K than 10K. His main focus is 1500 and he's only one second off that record.

He's never run a 10,000 on the track.

Yet despite allllll of the above... you think him threatening or beating the 10K seems "the most likely" ???

Oy vay.

Great post!!!

he can threaten all of them. I doubt he'll ever try steeple again though.

Haile had every record from 3200 to marathon at one time or other, in the not too distant past.

It remains to be seen how much the body size holds him back at distances above 5000. I think the detriment of size tends to be over stated for distance runners, there just aren't enough bigger guys to have meaningful statistics.

Look forward to Jakob trying a 10000 or half one day and we can all find out.

i think he was scheduled to run a half a couple years ago, but fell ill.

the question is about "not threatening". 10000 being the most likely means the most likely distance where he could not threaten the WR. So you agree with each other.

I think he can threaten all of them, minus the 10k maybe as he is unproven over the distance (yes I know he’s Euro XC champ). From most to least likely:

3k/steeple

5k

2k

1 mi

15

10k

5k and 2k are close and he has a decent shot at both imo. I agree with him that breaking 3:26.00 will be one of the hardest challenges he faces in his career.

How about the 3200? They forgot to put a camera at the 3200m mark when he got the 2-mile.

High school coaches don't care about the 2 mile.

Please don't post STUPID sh^t if you don't know what you're talking about. Seriously, think about what you post BEFORE posting it.

1) As someone has already said, I think 12:41 shows a bit of fitness...Duh!

2) Why would JK and DB ever be in a 1500m race together? And, if so do you think JK would sit back with a 1:42 guy running 3:45 pace and leave it to a kick?

Come on now!

I thought the same as you -that he had a great day in Silesia- but then I read this report that undermines what you are saying about faster / closer to his max capacity (in the first 3 laps of the race)…

tv2.no

Derfor står den umulige rekorden for fall

Per Tho Angell

Ingenting tyder på at grensa til Jakob Ingebrigtsens er nådd.

Open link

JK is a realistic threat to all of those WR's. The only event in question is the steeplechase. Not that he doesn't have the talent to run that fast (we all know he does), it's whether he choses to do it. This would require him to train over hurdles and adjust mentally, which he can do...if he decides to. The other events will be attacked by him at some point over his career. I've stated in a earlier post that the 3000m-5000m are his "Sweet Spot" events where he will run to his absolute potential. I'm guessing within the next 4 years. Once he rips off a few fast 5000's including the WR he'll take aim at the 10,000 WR.

As a fellow Norwegian I really do hope he will break all the 10wr/wb he has stated he's going for during his hopefully very long career.

I can't recall any 10k on track. I only know of his 27.50 something on road at Hytteplanmila in 2019.

I'd say he might be able to threaten every world record from 1500 - 10000.

For sure he's able to at least get extremely close from 1500 - 5000.

As I give him at least a 12:35/37 in the 5k I'd say he should at least be quicker than Fisher in the 10k, too.

Can Jakob be the first to be able to run 10 laps under 10 min?