6th in the world, but a giant chasm away from the medals. I truly believe that Mu could make a better effort than Johnson. Especially if she concentrated on the 1500.
Just curious, what do you think Mu could have run this year in Budapest had she concentrated on 1500m?
Mu has a higher ceiling in the 1500 than Johnson and others because of her inexperience in the event at this level of competition relative to them. I don’t think Mu was challenged much in AAU 1500’s and she only ran it once in college. Mu’s basic speed is also far superior. Johnson and others are not slow but 49.5 400 runners, they are not.
Even with these advantages she still has to put in the work, higher mileage, etc. There is just not enough time to make the transition this year or next. I see this as more of an LA 2028 project. Kipyegon’s time seems out of reach, but the AR? Possible.
We have already seen a 49/1:54 runner move up to the 1500 in Caster Semenya. She has a 3:59 PR but I think Mu is a more natural 1500 runner than Semenya. And notably, Semenya won a bronze in the event.
In the 1500 it all comes down to the race. 2017 came down to the kick. Last year Tsegay went out at WR pace and the field was already gapped at 200. The only runners who survived to medal were the sub 3:55 women.
The last 3 global finals were won in 3:51, 3:53 and 3:52 but i think that will change this year. It's suicide to try and run away from a 3:49/14:05 athlete. And given that Tsegay is 0-14 against Faith in the 1500 she is likely to pass this year. Next year we will have to see but the more tactical the race the better Mu's chances.
I agree, but I was just comparing her prospects to Johnson. Also, like Mu just has the audacity and the competitive streak to stick her nose in it. Where as Johnson just sat back and let the medals run away lar year.
This post was edited 2 minutes after it was posted.
Johnson was injured all through late April through early June and that’s a fact. She got hurt at the road mile in Des Moines and couldn’t run a step for about six weeks. She was pretty good at USAs given the circumstances. McGee and Hiltz are having career defining seasons and Mu was a total wild card thrown into the deck. Those four left eight other very good milers in their wake and you could have thrown a blanket over the four of them at the finish line. The USA women are sending great teams in the 800 and 1500.
I predict three USA women make the 800 final and three USA women make the 1500 final in Budapest and that’s not being USA rah-rah.
I also predict that come August that Johnson is the top USA finisher. She’s better suited for a fast pace than McGee and Hiltz and as long as she’s healthy should continue to improve.
Johnson was injured all through late April through early June and that’s a fact. She got hurt at the road mile in Des Moines and couldn’t run a step for about six weeks. She was pretty good at USAs given the circumstances. McGee and Hiltz are having career defining seasons and Mu was a total wild card thrown into the deck. Those four left eight other very good milers in their wake and you could have thrown a blanket over the four of them at the finish line. The USA women are sending great teams in the 800 and 1500.
I predict three USA women make the 800 final and three USA women make the 1500 final in Budapest and that’s not being USA rah-rah.
I also predict that come August that Johnson is the top USA finisher. She’s better suited for a fast pace than McGee and Hiltz and as long as she’s healthy should continue to improve.
Agreed.
All three recorded 58-59 second last laps in Saturday's USA finals.
That's the kind of close you need to get thru the quarter & semi rounds at WC.
I'll take this a step further and suggest there is a possibility that one or two could medal . . . if Tsgey & Hassan run other races leaving Kipyegon as the only superstar in the field.
All three recorded 58-59 second last laps in Saturday's USA finals.
That's the kind of close you need to get thru the quarter & semi rounds at WC.
I'll take this a step further and suggest there is a possibility that one or two could medal . . . if Tsgey & Hassan run other races leaving Kipyegon as the only superstar in the field.
The issue is even without those two:
Best Kick-Freweyni Hailu
Best Engine-Diribe Welteji & Laura Muir
Would need a career-best night from one of the 3 definitely. This is also hoping a young African runner like Meshesha/Haylom/Jepchirchir/Chemusto doesn’t find a new level. Or someone on equal or slightly better credentials like Hull, Mageean, Snowden doesn’t have the race of their life either. It’s very crowded, but Sinclaire and Hiltz do have great kicks so I agree it’s possible.
I don't think she can beat Keely. She doesn't appear to be in her top form. But her 1500 is incredible. She can own the event if she wanted to and properly train for it. People keep thinking she is 800 and 400. I think of her as more of Mo Farah and Abdi Nur with exceptional 400 speed.
Also, like Mu just has the audacity and the competitive streak to stick her nose in it. Where as Johnson just sat back and let the medals run away lar year.
That's the American tradition, to loiter back and allow the medals to run away. It will happen again this year. I can't believe this gunk I'm reading about medal opportunities. Muir is vastly superior to any American and she's hard pressed to stick close enough to medal.
Americans will begin medaling once sites like this get rid of the garbage emphasis on closing splits. That's been the ignorant emphasis for decades. You cannot cede ground at highest level.
Anyone who cites outliers has already devoted a lifetime to butchering the focus
Johnson was injured all through late April through early June and that’s a fact. She got hurt at the road mile in Des Moines and couldn’t run a step for about six weeks.
dude she raced April 25th and raced twice on June 16th.
She "didn't run a step for six weeks" you really want me to believe she ran for the first time ~ June 6th and Julian is like yes let's make her race an 800+1500 in one hour just ten days later.
I don't buy it. I buy she was injured yes, maybe such that she couldn't run for a couple of weeks but no chance was it six weeks.
Johnson was injured all through late April through early June and that’s a fact. She got hurt at the road mile in Des Moines and couldn’t run a step for about six weeks. She was pretty good at USAs given the circumstances. McGee and Hiltz are having career defining seasons and Mu was a total wild card thrown into the deck. Those four left eight other very good milers in their wake and you could have thrown a blanket over the four of them at the finish line. The USA women are sending great teams in the 800 and 1500.
I predict three USA women make the 800 final and three USA women make the 1500 final in Budapest and that’s not being USA rah-rah.
I also predict that come August that Johnson is the top USA finisher. She’s better suited for a fast pace than McGee and Hiltz and as long as she’s healthy should continue to improve.
Agreed.
All three recorded 58-59 second last laps in Saturday's USA finals.
That's the kind of close you need to get thru the quarter & semi rounds at WC.
I'll take this a step further and suggest there is a possibility that one or two could medal . . . if Tsgey & Hassan run other races leaving Kipyegon as the only superstar in the field.
Of course there is a possibility, but maybe you are underestimating the depth of the event beyond Kipyegon, Tsegay and Muir - especially with some of the young up and coming athletes. There have been 11 runners under 4 this year and none of them Americans. There have been 8 who are 3:57 or faster, including 5 Ethiopians. All of the Ethiopians under 4, except for Tsegay are under age 23.
Take Birke Haylom, age 17. She won World Juniors last year, beating Addy Wiley (and others) by 7 seconds and she is more than 2 years younger than Wiley. She also dominated the mile in Bislett, beating both McGee and Hiltz, who neglected to go with her when she pushed the pace.
The problem with McGee, Hiltz and Johnson is they are willing to let other runners control the race in the final and just hope things play out for them perfectly to pick up a medal by being in the right place. They won't be the ones to seize control. But Mu has already won 2 global golds and is not going to be intimidated like other Americans by the stars in the field. She might blow up and finish last, but she will assert herself and the other runners will need to pay attention to her, knowing that she is the best 800m runner in the world. But, of course, that's moot this year since she won't be running the 1500.
I'll take this a step further and suggest there is a possibility that one or two could medal . . . if Tsgey & Hassan run other races leaving Kipyegon as the only superstar in the field.
Um...no. There is no chance two Americans will medal, and very little change that even one of them will. That's because Hiltz, Johnson & McGee simply aren't fast enough, or savvy enough, to compete with other women besided Kipyegon, Hassan & Tsgey.
For two Americans to medal, they will have to beat Laura Muir. If you look at their history, you see how unlikely this is.
According to WA, Muir first raced one of the Americans (Hiltz) at Worlds in 2019. Since then, she has raced them 20x over 1500/mile. In that time, only Johnson & McGee have beaten her. They both beat her at Pre last spring. In the year since, Muir has beaten the three Americans a combined 10x!
Since they first raced in 2019, Muir has run under (usually well-under) 4:00 9x. Only one of the Americans, Sinclaire Johnson, has run under 4:00, and only once. All 9 of Muir's times are under Johnson's time.
Hiltz ran 4:16.35 today to set the AR in Monaco. Muir ran over a second faster, as did Hull and MaGeean.
In the last year or so, MaGeean's been on a tear. So far this year, she's 2-1 against Muir.
This hardly bodes well for the Hiltz, Johnson or McGee.
What am I missing, besides some powerful home-team blinders?
I'll take this a step further and suggest there is a possibility that one or two could medal . . . if Tsgey & Hassan run other races leaving Kipyegon as the only superstar in the field.
This hardly bodes well for the Hiltz, Johnson or McGee . . . What am I missing, besides some powerful home-team blinders?
Possibility . . . not probability.
And . . . up until today . . . Muir had not been in top form while MaGeean was soundly beaten by Hiltz and Cory McGee at the Oslo Bislett Games mile.
However, above embedded quote was written prior to 4 Ethiopians running 3:54-3:54-3:55-3:57 in Poland a few days ago . . . and none of them were named Gudaf Tsegey.
Have to now concede that possibility is pretty much near zero . . . even before today's results in Monaco.
However, still have high hopes . . . my home-team blinders . . . that all three US women advance to the finals at Worlds . . . potentially facing off against 3 Ethiopians, 2 Aussies, 2 Brits, MaGeean, and Faith . . . assuming Hassan runs the 5k/10k.
Johnson was injured all through late April through early June and that’s a fact. She got hurt at the road mile in Des Moines and couldn’t run a step for about six weeks. She was pretty good at USAs given the circumstances. McGee and Hiltz are having career defining seasons and Mu was a total wild card thrown into the deck. Those four left eight other very good milers in their wake and you could have thrown a blanket over the four of them at the finish line. The USA women are sending great teams in the 800 and 1500.
I predict three USA women make the 800 final and three USA women make the 1500 final in Budapest and that’s not being USA rah-rah.
I also predict that come August that Johnson is the top USA finisher. She’s better suited for a fast pace than McGee and Hiltz and as long as she’s healthy should continue to improve.
Placing all six of our 800/1500 entrants in the final is overly optimistic. I would love to see it as a U.S. fan but I would be shocked if it happened. There are so many great competitors from so many other countries.
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