Joshua Cheptegei Marathon Debut in Valencia “The marathon must be hammered”

Crash and burn

This is exciting

Has anyone ever debuted in their 1st marathon before ?

Chep at 12:41 and it seems completely reasonable to predict 2:03-2:05. Why does it seem crazy then to think the American 12:45-12:55 guys could run under 2:07? Maybe they could, but it just doesn't seem nearly as likely as Cheptegei's marathon predictions on this thread.

Running is unpredictable. But I'd say 2:03-2:05 to stay on the safe side. I don't see him running a WR on his debut. Wouldn't above his caliber though.

I’m somewhat shocked Cheptegei and his team have made this decision. Gidey’s debut was of course impressive, but seemed by her lofty standards to be a bit of a let down. She had her phenomenal 62:52 going for her - as far as I recall, cheptegei has only run two halves, and neither went so well. In 2020 world half champs he was soundly beaten by kiplimo and others, taking 4th; this was only a week or so after his 26:11, so we may cut him some slack . But this year in NYC he again lost handily to Kiplimo.

I’m just a bit surprised there’s no plan to record a sub 58 or attack the half WR first. Even more so after his big 12:41, why take up a full marathon when he may be approaching WR shape on the track for the second time ?

On the other hand, perhaps partially due to the shoes, but also just owing to a generational shift in the event, we are seeing a completely new attitude to the marathon. Gidey debuts in 2:16 in Valencia, comes back in the next track season to lead Kipyegon to a 5000 WR. Hassan wins London almost on a whim, and returns to the track shortly after, giving every indication she’ll be competitive in Budapest. Perhaps in this new age the marathon is just another event, and not something one has to move to and take up full time from the start.

Still, I’m not sure what the “rush” is, with Gidey or Cheptegei - Joshua is 26, and Eliud has clearly shown age is no issue for the full. But I suppose one wants to strike while the iron is hot, and again distance runners no longer seem to fear the marathon will deaden their track legs or dull their kick. It’s just another aerobic test …

At any rate, owing to the subpar half performances, I’ll have to say I’ll be surprised if cheptegei gets anything better than a solid ~2:05 debut. On the other hand, with 12:35/26:11 down, I also wouldn’t be shocked with a phenomenal 2:02 (or quicker? Since Kiptum has shown it’s possible). Exciting times !

He should try and run 12:37 and 26:17 the way Bekele did before moving up to the thon

This. In fact he is still coming back from injury. Last time he was fully healthy was 2020 and he has still won a gold medal at the last 3 global championships.

I actually thought his 5k vs Aregawi was a good sign. They lost everyone else and Chep had a shot at the win despite having a small injury

about ten years ago i posted that bekele in his prime could run sub 2 hour marathon. that is with great pacing and conditions, like a half a dozen guys in it to 30km. and you sit behind, which we see is possible.

and we have a guy now that has the same times as bekele going to run a marathon in his prime.

which means WR is very possible and sub 2 is not likely unless they set up the pacers for drafting.

but if they do set the pacing, then sub 2 is possible. and 200.x quite possible.

and finally, the marathon being what it is, some guys just can't go over the half marathon distance. and time will tell what's up.

50/50 i fathom a wild guess.

2.05 - 2.06

It's a new world, Chep should try the marathon as it IS just another event. He stands zero chance at the 5K any more, and the 10K will be the same in another year. At 26.2 he only needs to worry about Kiptum.

With the mentality "the marathon must be hammered" I'd say way over 2:02. Probably 2:04 would be a good day, maybe he'll even blow up to a 2:06 or DNF. The best marathon runners run very controlled and make it look easy. You don't hammer a marathon. There are many half marathon runners faster than Cheptegei who haven't run sub 2:05. In 2020 after his world record 5,000m/10,000m races he ran the world half and got absolutely dusted. And then this year he got dropped pretty badly by Kiplimo in New York in the half. And now we're talking about double that distance, it doesn't seem he is going to translate as well as some other guys to the marathon, and that mentality of hammering the marathon isn't going to help.

Does he know it's a full Mary?

I think historically the Marathon has been viewed as a standalone event requiring unique training and certainly not to be trained and run whilst still competitive on the track. Top athletes have completed their track “careers” and then turned to the roads. Somewhere along the line this conservative thinking has been challenged resulting in the marathon being normalised for current top track athletes. Obviously some athletes respond better than others. - Gideys coach is on record as saying that an analysis of her training reveals she performs the best on the long run and he believes the marathon will be her best event. Women’s 5-10km track running is currently stronger than its ever been so individual dominance of the event is a lot more difficult than it has been previously. I still think the 10000m will dip below 29 minutes soon.