Jakob´s interview post Lausanne indicates a fast time in Silesa

bayi, walker run 144 high and 145 low,

bayi was good for 329 or better with the shoes, hoover race, drafting, the best track today.

and 144 high easily with the shoes and super track, that is half a second better that the above race, so there is not much speculation there.

Vertolin used formula to predict intermediate times, based on simple interpolation models from real data, and assumes the faster your basic speed, the worse your endurance is, which isn't exactly the be all and end all, when you have unique talented indivuduals, the kind which set world records.

another way to calculate intermediate times, or under distance times is to compare an athlete type with another,

you will see that people like steve scott, ran 145 without any focus on it, spending much of his time doing 5 min mile 10 milers, which isn't the way to get ready for an 800 to say the least. and scott was able to manage such a time, based on some speed work prior to track season, and natural speed, which is dulled with the volumes and adaptation to the 56 sec / lap pace. moorcroft ran 146 being a non speed deamon, coupled with a 349 mile. so with the tracks today and the shoes, we have moorcroft coming in with a 145 800m and that is without focusing on it, only as tuning the speed for the mile/5000m

so the calculation is that jacob with his probable 326 shape coming obviously in the next fortnight, with some speed jacob has to perform as well in the 8 as the athletes mentioned above.

this method of calculation probably rhymes with arch jelley, walker's coach, who predicted privately prior to 1974 WR in christchurch, that walker would probably break the world record, based on workouts... but was still kind of gobsmacked when the calculation was on the nose, when actually ran 332 "out of the blue".

Dude just slaughtered the 2 mile record. Then runs a 3:28 on tired legs. If the stars align, I think we see a 3:24. Everything has to be on point - pacing, crowd, weather, Jakob having a good day, etc.

Not anymore.

Takes 2 clowns to tango l guess.

This is the truth, but all of those obsessed with the overly arrogant Jakob don’t seem to want to acknowledge reality. El G was the 1,500m and mile GOAT. Period. Full stop. And there’s a huge leap to get from 3:27.95 to 3:26.00. It’s frankly insulting to El G’s legacy to think anything else.

A more objective way to look at it is to think that Jakob has only improved 0.7 seconds in the last 4 years. There’s no reason to think he improves materially in any race going forward.

An even more objective way to look at it is to think he really haven't gone gone all-in on a record time yet, but rather focused on winning. And he hasnt have the right pacers.
In Silesia (assuming they get a better pacer), he will for sure run low 3.27, and I predict mid 3.26.

Time will show :D

The litany of excuses regarding Jakob is truly offensive. Why cannot some of you show some respect for him instead of feeling he is so pathetic as to need your excuses?

the voice of posters does not represent letsrun.

look at the polls and the up votes and down votes to see what is the reality.

sadly the big mouths in all areas of life don't represent the masses.

the silent masses of letsrun are smart on this sport.

except on drugs where only ones exposed directly have a chance to know.

Lol. So this is the Jakob circle jerk thread, huh? 3:24?? He's suddenly just gonna shave 3+ seconds off his best time... just like that [ snap!].. he was all out in that 327.9 race. And he was in peak or near peak condition. And he ran a very good paced race. It ain't happening.

How do you know he was in peak condition? He's never messed up his peaking for the season before.

Before Oslo, no man had ever broken 3:29 before July, and Jakob has done it twice in a couple of weeks. Before Oslo, the best ever time before July was Morceli with 3:29.20, so Jakob ran well over a second faster than any other man in June in history. The best El G ever ran before July was 3:29.5

Let´s see who the idiot is.

You conveniently abstained from making a prediction. Are you afraid of looking silly after Silesia?

+1

I have never said he will hold all WRs from the 800m to the marathon and I never will say that (especially not regarding the 800m; I don´t know if he will ever run the marathon).

BUT I HAVE SAID THAT HE - BARRING ILLNESS AND INJURY - WILL BREAK ALL THE CURRENT WRS FROM 1500M TO 10,000M.

I will argue for that in a separate post when I have read all the posts on this thread.

Your first sentence disqualify you as a serious poster. You have no real arguments; you just another biased negativist.

By the way: El-G jumped from 3:29.12 in Oslo in july 1998 to 3:26 in Rome just FIVE DAYS LATER to break the WR. So why are you so certain that Jakob can´t improve with 2 seconds from his Oslo time?

Below - in separate post - I will provide some REAL arguments for why Jakob can break the 1500m WR in the not too far future.

He wont do that,either.

What makes no sense is how you can't rub your 2 brain cells together and figure out people run slower when they're tired.

There have for many years been a lot of discussion about if Jakob will peak early.

Strange enough many of the negativists who have claimed this even from he was 16-17 years old probably now claim that the Youngs, the Sahlmans, Hocker, Kessler, Nuguse, Teare or in other areas Niels Laros, Myers (or whoever their favorites are) have a great future!?

I have for years stated that Jakob will break all the CURRENT WRs from 1500m and at least to the 10,000m.

That prediction was based on his efficient, mainly aerobic training. He has undeniable put new layers on his aerobic from year to year in about 15 years (he had exceptional endurance already at age 10).

And here comes the central argument: HE IS STILL IMPROVING HIS AEROBIC CAPACITY AND WILL DO SO FOR A NUMBER OF MORE YEARS.

How do I know he is still improving? That is what both Jakob and Henrik say and that is based on the times they are registrating in training ( this registration goes many years back to the time where Henrik was a teenager).

A good measure is the time they are running for their 1000m reps which they are doing in series of 12 several times in a normal base training week. The 1000m is run at the same effort year after year (at lactate number 3.1-3.2) so if the time run is improving it is a fact that the endurance is improving accordingly.

When Henrik was a teenager he ran the 1000m reps in just under 3:10. When Jakob was a young teenager they ran around 2:55. Later they came down to 2:45. Some years ago I guessed they could be close to 3:40. And recently I saw a thread abot their training where it was stated that they now run 3:35 to 3:40!

If he continues his efficient aerobic training I see no reason why he shouldn´t run 2:30 or below in the future.

And since his times from 1500m and up have a close correlation with his aerobic capacity his times will improve for several years to come. SO I DON´T AGREE WITH THE PEOPLE WHO STATE THAT HE SHALL TAKE WRS NOW WHEN HE IS IN PEAK SHAPE. Everything equal he will have even better endurance next year and next year again.

His 2 mile WB shows that he is already in WR shape when it comes to at least the 2000m, the 3000m and the 5000m so further aerobic development just strengthens his chances.

It is possibly true that the 1500m WR will be more difficult to break than the above mentioned but we will know after Silesia. I have predicted he can go sub 3:27 if the conditions are good.

Morceli and El Guerrouj would have easily run under 3:29 before July if they had the conditions Jakob has; track, shoes and lights. Easily.