Well we know one thing for certain - the pace making will be absolutely perfect, but what does he have the lights and the bodies set to run?
Can he do it going out in over 1.50 at the 800m mark? That would mean he has to run 1.35.XX for the final 700m which is really tough, even for him off that sort of opening.
My gut feeling is that he has to be fractionally under 1.50.0 - somewhere between 1.49.5 and 1.50.0, has to keep it rolling to be under 2.45 at 1200m leaving him right around 41 seconds for the final 300m (he ran right on 41.5 in the 2 mile and 40.3 in Rabat).
I think I'm stating the obvious that if he can break it he's not going to smash it, so I think his dream race is:
54.7, 55.0, 55.1, (2.44.8) and 41.0 to run 3.25.8X
Really can't wait to (hopefully) see him get after a 1200m split - been a long time since I feel like my eyes have nearly popped out of my head seeing 2.44 and change pop up after 3 laps. Exciting times - what do people think?
(btw wanted to add that this isn't necessarily with respect to Oslo, but it's clear that the shape he is in this season that a tilt is going to happen at some point, so this would just be his path to that record)
You're jumping the gun here. Let the man run 3:27 first before asking him to run 3:26 flat. Jakob has said as much himself.
I think you know track very well. Your numbers look good. I believe Jakob can set the 1500m record with pacing along the lines you state. I'd like to see him do it.
Thank you. Yeah I just think leaving himself around 39.5 - 40.0 seconds for the last 300 starts moving away from his strength which is his strength. I think that is too much of a change up in pace from what he would have been running to get himself at 1200m in the 2.45.5-2.46.0 range.
I was just running and another thing that adds to my personal optimism about his chances (even though honestly I think it is unlikely and his chances in any race this season are maybe 30% if I was giving it a number) is that El G never quite seemed to hit the perfect numbers to run his absolute potential. 2.46.x seemed too slow (sub 40 for the final 300 I think proves that) and 2.44.x seemed too fast (as he couldn't run under 3.26.5 when he did that) His sweet-spot zone appeared like it was the low 2.45's because with his stronger 800m background and ability he could close in low the 40's. Jakob doesn't have that but he's stronger aerobically than Hicham (El G struggled mightily to run 7.23 and Jakob just ran under 7.22 after an opening 218m at 59 pace). So I do think the record, insane as it sounds, could really be a half second to six tenths of a second faster - but it's not and that is why I definitely upped his chances (purely my opinion) because a year ago I would have said his chances were virtually non-existent.
Well we know one thing for certain - the pace making will be absolutely perfect, but what does he have the lights and the bodies set to run?
Can he do it going out in over 1.50 at the 800m mark? That would mean he has to run 1.35.XX for the final 700m which is really tough, even for him off that sort of opening.
My gut feeling is that he has to be fractionally under 1.50.0 - somewhere between 1.49.5 and 1.50.0, has to keep it rolling to be under 2.45 at 1200m leaving him right around 41 seconds for the final 300m (he ran right on 41.5 in the 2 mile and 40.3 in Rabat).
I think I'm stating the obvious that if he can break it he's not going to smash it, so I think his dream race is:
54.7, 55.0, 55.1, (2.44.8) and 41.0 to run 3.25.8X
Really can't wait to (hopefully) see him get after a 1200m split - been a long time since I feel like my eyes have nearly popped out of my head seeing 2.44 and change pop up after 3 laps. Exciting times - what do people think?
(btw wanted to add that this isn't necessarily with respect to Oslo, but it's clear that the shape he is in this season that a tilt is going to happen at some point, so this would just be his path to that record)
You're jumping the gun here. Let the man run 3:27 first before asking him to run 3:26 flat. Jakob has said as much himself.
No I'm not because this isn't a thread of expectation or what's going to happen in Oslo (hint: read the last sentence in brackets there champ). It's purely a "if he's going to do it here is how he can do it" opinion thread. Okay?
Jakob doesn't have it in him to run any faster than 1.46 or thereabouts. He's not a speedster. To run an 800 only a few seconds off his limit and then keep going for another 700 at near the same speed won't be within his capacity - or anyone's - no matter how doped.
I see Salvatore posted a race above in which Lagat did just that. I would agree then with his assessment that Lagat was therefore capable of around 1.45. I don't think Jakob is. Jakob is one of the "slowest" (in terms of sprint speed) of any top 1500 runner I have seen. He has phenomenal endurance. Lagat had a faster finish than Jakob has. At Athens he was right on El G's shoulder right up to the tape while running 1.46-low for the last 800m.
Jakob is not the fastest but he is faster than you say.
Also I say his finish is now on par with Lagat. They're probably both at 1:45 flat ability, maybe a tad faster.
You're jumping the gun here. Let the man run 3:27 first before asking him to run 3:26 flat. Jakob has said as much himself.
No I'm not because this isn't a thread of expectation or what's going to happen in Oslo (hint: read the last sentence in brackets there champ). It's purely a "if he's going to do it here is how he can do it" opinion thread. Okay?
Yeah after watching Jakob run 7:54 I am re-setting my opinions of what I believe he can run. I do think you are right about the 1500m record. Not sure when he breaks it, but I won't be putting limits on what he can run. He is incredible. The 3K is a WR he can achieve as well. Regardless of how things turn out he will always be an Olympic Gold Medalist and one of the greats of our sport. Your posts are very well thought out and informative. Thank you.
1.50 is less than 4 secs from his absolute best over the 800. It would be like Coe setting out in 1.45-46. Jakob couldn't set out running that close to his best 800 without blowing up.
Its weird to care about his "best ever 800m" as his best ever 800m is any indication of his 800m speed. Its like caring about his best ever 3000m instead of his 3000m split on the 2mile record.
Just so people don't misunderstand me - I think its way to soon to talk about a WR in the 1500. He haven't been under 3:28 yet. I just find it funny that people think an elite runner reach their peak potential by doing an event once every second year for a total of 6 times(?) since they were 15. Somehow I think that anyone has more in the bank with that level commitment.
This post was edited 57 seconds after it was posted.
No I'm not because this isn't a thread of expectation or what's going to happen in Oslo (hint: read the last sentence in brackets there champ). It's purely a "if he's going to do it here is how he can do it" opinion thread. Okay?
I should probably stop doubting Jakob because he keeps making me look stupid every time. That said, I still see his relative lack of 800 speed being the limiting factor here. Sure he can go faster than 1:46, but I think 1:44 high is probably around his ceiling. El G was able to overcome a similar speed deficit with a truckload of EPO, but that option isn't available anymore. Both the 5k and 10k records look more in range, and Jakob himself seems to agree based on his statements.
Its weird to care about his "best ever 800m" as his best ever 800m is any indication of his 800m speed. Its like caring about his best ever 3000m instead of his 3000m split on the 2mile record.
Just so people don't misunderstand me - I think its way to soon to talk about a WR in the 1500. He haven't been under 3:28 yet. I just find it funny that people think an elite runner reach their peak potential by doing an event once every second year for a total of 6 times(?) since they were 15. Somehow I think that anyone has more in the bank with that level commitment.
Okay, I disagree.
The current WR holder ran it when he was 23. JI is 22.
The current WR holders PR before running 3.26.00 was 3.28.91 which is over a half a second slower than Jakobs current PR. So really age and "PR before the WR" are basically irrelevant here and non factors.
Your last point I don't quite get - "an event once every second year for a total of 6 times" ??? What do you mean - record attempts? World or Olympic Championships? I don't know how that impacts a potentially pinnacle lifetime performance?
Again, and I've mentioned this many times here - I give this a less than 50% chance of happening in his entire career right now, let alone in Oslo in 2 days, but your logic against it I'm sorry just isn't really reasonable.
I should probably stop doubting Jakob because he keeps making me look stupid every time. That said, I still see his relative lack of 800 speed being the limiting factor here. Sure he can go faster than 1:46, but I think 1:44 high is probably around his ceiling. El G was able to overcome a similar speed deficit with a truckload of EPO, but that option isn't available anymore. Both the 5k and 10k records look more in range, and Jakob himself seems to agree based on his statements.
So I understand the 800m speed perspective and for a long time I felt the same. But I am slowly changing that POV. What do the last 2 world record holders have in common? Both were elite over 3000m (Morceli held the WR and El G is still technically 2AT even though Jakob just ran faster en route in his 2 mile). I think 3000m speed endurance is more important than 800m speed which was probably the most important when the sport was looking at it's WR in the low 3.30's/high 3.20's - Ovett, Coe, Cram, Aouita (with Aouita being that transition guy to show how important 3000m excellence is to this new plateau of the record).
I personally don't think his 800m time really matters. He's not trying to run back to back 51.5's, he's trying to run 3 x 55.0 and under 41 seconds for the last 300 and "elite" 800m speed (1.42/43) doesn't help this. What helps that is being able to run 8 laps back to back at 59 seconds which is what he basically what he did in Paris. He doesn't have EPO or quite the same leg speed as Hicham, but he's evidently just as strong aerobically without it and he now runs in an era where pacemaking is markedly better thanks to LED technology.
It's all great discussion and love the POV's on the thread.
Jakob doesn't have it in him to run any faster than 1.46 or thereabouts. He's not a speedster. To run an 800 only a few seconds off his limit and then keep going for another 700 at near the same speed won't be within his capacity - or anyone's - no matter how doped.
I see Salvatore posted a race above in which Lagat did just that. I would agree then with his assessment that Lagat was therefore capable of around 1.45. I don't think Jakob is. Jakob is one of the "slowest" (in terms of sprint speed) of any top 1500 runner I have seen. He has phenomenal endurance. Lagat had a faster finish than Jakob has. At Athens he was right on El G's shoulder right up to the tape while running 1.46-low for the last 800m.
Seems like I have found one of maybe 5 from his 25000+ posts with no mentioning of doping.
I should probably stop doubting Jakob because he keeps making me look stupid every time. That said, I still see his relative lack of 800 speed being the limiting factor here. Sure he can go faster than 1:46, but I think 1:44 high is probably around his ceiling. El G was able to overcome a similar speed deficit with a truckload of EPO, but that option isn't available anymore. Both the 5k and 10k records look more in range, and Jakob himself seems to agree based on his statements.
So I understand the 800m speed perspective and for a long time I felt the same. But I am slowly changing that POV. What do the last 2 world record holders have in common? Both were elite over 3000m (Morceli held the WR and El G is still technically 2AT even though Jakob just ran faster en route in his 2 mile). I think 3000m speed endurance is more important than 800m speed which was probably the most important when the sport was looking at it's WR in the low 3.30's/high 3.20's - Ovett, Coe, Cram, Aouita (with Aouita being that transition guy to show how important 3000m excellence is to this new plateau of the record).
I personally don't think his 800m time really matters. He's not trying to run back to back 51.5's, he's trying to run 3 x 55.0 and under 41 seconds for the last 300 and "elite" 800m speed (1.42/43) doesn't help this. What helps that is being able to run 8 laps back to back at 59 seconds which is what he basically what he did in Paris. He doesn't have EPO or quite the same leg speed as Hicham, but he's evidently just as strong aerobically without it and he now runs in an era where pacemaking is markedly better thanks to LED technology.
It's all great discussion and love the POV's on the thread.
I should probably stop doubting Jakob because he keeps making me look stupid every time. That said, I still see his relative lack of 800 speed being the limiting factor here. Sure he can go faster than 1:46, but I think 1:44 high is probably around his ceiling. El G was able to overcome a similar speed deficit with a truckload of EPO, but that option isn't available anymore. Both the 5k and 10k records look more in range, and Jakob himself seems to agree based on his statements.
So I understand the 800m speed perspective and for a long time I felt the same. But I am slowly changing that POV. What do the last 2 world record holders have in common? Both were elite over 3000m (Morceli held the WR and El G is still technically 2AT even though Jakob just ran faster en route in his 2 mile). I think 3000m speed endurance is more important than 800m speed which was probably the most important when the sport was looking at it's WR in the low 3.30's/high 3.20's - Ovett, Coe, Cram, Aouita (with Aouita being that transition guy to show how important 3000m excellence is to this new plateau of the record).
I personally don't think his 800m time really matters. He's not trying to run back to back 51.5's, he's trying to run 3 x 55.0 and under 41 seconds for the last 300 and "elite" 800m speed (1.42/43) doesn't help this. What helps that is being able to run 8 laps back to back at 59 seconds which is what he basically what he did in Paris. He doesn't have EPO or quite the same leg speed as Hicham, but he's evidently just as strong aerobically without it and he now runs in an era where pacemaking is markedly better thanks to LED technology.
It's all great discussion and love the POV's on the thread.
Good post! But your last remark about pacemaking is somewhat confusing (though agreeing in your comments about LED technology): El Guerrouj had Ngeny as a pacer (almost to 1200m) -hard to find someone as good. But maybe Cheruiyot can be a factor here…
I should probably stop doubting Jakob because he keeps making me look stupid every time. That said, I still see his relative lack of 800 speed being the limiting factor here. Sure he can go faster than 1:46, but I think 1:44 high is probably around his ceiling. El G was able to overcome a similar speed deficit with a truckload of EPO, but that option isn't available anymore. Both the 5k and 10k records look more in range, and Jakob himself seems to agree based on his statements.
So I understand the 800m speed perspective and for a long time I felt the same. But I am slowly changing that POV. What do the last 2 world record holders have in common? Both were elite over 3000m (Morceli held the WR and El G is still technically 2AT even though Jakob just ran faster en route in his 2 mile). I think 3000m speed endurance is more important than 800m speed which was probably the most important when the sport was looking at it's WR in the low 3.30's/high 3.20's - Ovett, Coe, Cram, Aouita (with Aouita being that transition guy to show how important 3000m excellence is to this new plateau of the record).
I personally don't think his 800m time really matters. He's not trying to run back to back 51.5's, he's trying to run 3 x 55.0 and under 41 seconds for the last 300 and "elite" 800m speed (1.42/43) doesn't help this. What helps that is being able to run 8 laps back to back at 59 seconds which is what he basically what he did in Paris. He doesn't have EPO or quite the same leg speed as Hicham, but he's evidently just as strong aerobically without it and he now runs in an era where pacemaking is markedly better thanks to LED technology.
It's all great discussion and love the POV's on the thread.
I agree with this:
3 x 55 and sub 41 for the last 300m.
He can do it this year if the conditions are good.
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BY THE WAY SALVATORE:
DON´T YOU THINK IT IS TIME TO REWISE (AGAIN) YOUR PREDICTIONS FOR JAKOB´S CAREER BESTS?