This is it folks. You have seen peak Jakob. He may maintain for a few years but you have seen the best of him. No shame in that either as he is great. He is great for the sport. But he has stopped improving. No surprise there of course.
I disagree. He still can run 3:27 and 12:42 under right circumstances.
If America sweep the 1500 in Paris I will sell my house and give you the proceeds. Deluded is a real disease
What’s delusional about my post? The entire 2022 season came and went with no improvement from Jakob in the 1500. That’s not delusion, it’s reality! Meanwhile our guys are coming on strong!
Thank you for your gift! How much do you think you can get for your house? I want to start making plans for how to use the money.
I agree Jakob didn’t show any certain development in the 1500m in 2022 -should have run faster in Zurich and Oslo (mile) if that was the case. But he him self said that he felt better than in 2021 ( more potential), and can of course be right (hard to always getting your potential manifested in a pb).
According to Gjert I. (his then coach) Jakob stopped developing in the 1500m May / June 2019 -they then outsmarted the stagnation by adjusting the training. And who knows: Maybe Jakob’s continuous adjustments still will give room for improvement…
Nick Willis calculated Jakob’s Olympics race to convert to a 3.25.9 (not running wide / better temperature / no prelims / no slowing down the last 100m, and so on), but I don’t think one realistically can hope for a perfect time trail… So we just have to wait and see…
Jakob has been training quite seriously since age 10, but saying that a certain amount of years equals stagnation is no lock at all -may easily be the opposite… We just don’t now -it all depends on the possibilities inherent in his training regime, and to what amount he can realise what’s there. -I suspect there’s a lot, and that with some luck we are in for a treat..!
And then we got everything above the 1500m -it’s obvious Jakob has just getting started! Paris June 9 (2 miles WR attempt) will be the first hint of capacity for now…
To actually believe this you'd have to believe that aerobic development is the only way to improve as a 1500m runner. And if it were, that he had somehow 'maxed it out' at age 22.
You'd have to believe that he's already completely perfect in terms of strength training, speed work, core work, biomechanics, diet, sharpness, sleep, tactics, recovery, pacing and mental game, and that no marginal gains could be found through any of those avenues, or any other training stimulus that he has the luxury of being able to introduce.
So he's peaked but he still may set some personal bests, which is the same as saying he hasn't run his best times yet which is the same as saying he hasn't peaked yet which is you trying to have your cake and eat it too. Too much cake mate
If there is a ceiling for our species, anyone who nears that ceiling will "stop improving." Let's say that the best runners in the world in the 1990s on a full EPO program could "only" run 3:26-3:27, why do people think Jakob will run that fast or faster?
By definition, there is an upper limit to how good humans can get. Jakob got close to that limit at 20 and as such will barely improve.
He should end his career next year by “EPO-Gettin’ By the Day - Testing the GOAT to The Limit”
this will be a massive promotional event of a few months which will be broadcast on every platform. Vlogs, cool videos, medication usage, and it will generate more than enough to budge some pacers to join in with the challenge. Let’s take T&F to the next level
Jakob is a more obvious doper than El Guerrouj - and he's probably been doping from a young age, at that. However, now that he's been and still is a star, he'll never test positive.
Nobody not on drugs runs a 1500m time around 2(800)-4.5s.
I’m no expert on doping. But I know a thing or two about humility and (over-) surety -surety without nuances is always a bad sign. Thus I expect “obvious doper” or “they all dope” or “too good to be true” to be “arguments” from people who knows even less than myself about doping… (Give or take one or two, and a few obvious cases). But of course I may be wrong…
You pose two arguments: 1. The (small) difference between Jakob’s pb in the 800 and the 1500m. But that’s no proof, and not even an indication, because nobody knows what is possible here (clean)… 2. You tell us no star will ever test positive. -Meaning a lot of medical personnel and testers, not only in Norwegian Wada, but also in the International AIU, are unanimously corrupt and protective of the stars, and that Jakob has the cool to relying on this. But this his highly illogical..!
Further doping indications: Some run unbelievable fast, and even faster than admitted dopers / Doping is easily available / There’s a lot of money and fame as a motivator (for doping) / Some (Jakob) shows more passion for winning than for the joy of running itself / There are some ways of outsmarting the testers (for awhile at least)…
I don’t think Jakob dopes, but I may of course be wrong. So here are my arguments (you have to analyse and balance pros and cons): 1. I think he’s curious about how fast he can be. And that doping would mess up the answer he’s seeking about his clean abilities. And I think he’s not interested in doping because he’s in the fortunate situation that he doesn’t have to dope… 2. Historically we know about athletes as good as Jakob (minus for track / shoe-improvement, better training ++) then doping wasn’t available. So running clean seems possible…. 3. People are not the same; some will never dope, some will. The testing regime is better than before -I think some level of despair is involved in doping nowadays (more than Lance A. and Marion J. who may have had other motives..). 4. The testing in Norway is so frequent and solid thar even micro-dosing seems to be a too much of a hazard. I don’t think Jakob wants to live a life like that…
I don't have strong feelings on whether Jakob will improve further. He's young enough that it's plausible, but he's already one of the best in history, so it's not really a knock on him if he's at his peak already (many have peaked at around his age).
I'm just chiming in to say that the thread title is an egregious misuse of the idiom.
All runners stop improving at a point. With his PRs, that point probably comes sooner than most. Will be 23 in September and still the best guy in the World across the board from 1500 to 5k. I would not shed any tears for Jakob.
Quick take. Jakob should do some 800 workouts. That's the path to 3:26 -- think of the El G... long, fast drives to those fast times. (Sure, El G was likely juiced, we all know) -- But Jakob needs to kick down to 53 pace off of runnings 55s.
This is it folks. You have seen peak Jakob. He may maintain for a few years but you have seen the best of him. No shame in that either as he is great. He is great for the sport. But he has stopped improving. No surprise there of course.
And you are?
Because we're all sure you have the world class credentials and expertise to clarify this...RIGHT?
So he's peaked but he still may set some personal bests, which is the same as saying he hasn't run his best times yet which is the same as saying he hasn't peaked yet which is you trying to have your cake and eat it too. Too much cake mate
Because you are not very bright I will walk you through this. Jakob has stopped improving. Of course he could set some personal bests. So has Jakob ever tried to run a track 10000m? Surely even someone with your mind can grasp that if Jakob sets a personal best at 10000m this wouldn’t necessarily indicate he had improved as a runner. Plus I acknowledged at the very beginning that Jakob “may maintain for a few years,” which is to say that he could be in 3:29, 12:45, 7:25, 26:40 shape for a few years. This is no easy feat. So again if Jakob set a personal best, and I am specifically discussing events he hasn’t raced much if at all, this wouldn’t by itself constitute evidence that he had improved. This is all rather rudimentary stuff but I knew there would be plenty of obtuse folks like you who cannot grasp it.
Jakob's aiming for the world record at the Paris DL on 9-June.
This is all well and good but the fact that Jakob is aiming for a world record means very little. What I find interesting is that Jakob will be trying to run at least 4.9 seconds faster for 2 miles than Craig Mottram did (8:03.50) 16 years ago without super spikes. Should Jakob have a chance? One might think so but I don’t see Jakob breaking 8 minutes even with all the advantages.
As someone gets close to the limits of human potential (world record range), improvement is nearly impossible to achieve. Otherwise everyone would be doing it.
This post was edited 44 seconds after it was posted.
As someone gets close to the limits of human potential (world record range), improvement is nearly impossible to achieve. Otherwise everyone would be doing it.
Yes it becomes increasingly difficult to improve and even to maintain for some.
Your use of general statements which you then follow up with very specific statements, as though you originally made the specific point, are again indications that you can't let go of the cake you are also eating.