These kids say anything to get a headline. They know they’re going to the NCAA where they’ll be small fish in a big pond so they’re maximizing their fame window hyping up completely unreasonable time trials because the is no real downside to doing so — when they miss the record everybody will forget and commend them for trying and move on the the next story but the clicks, views, and followers gained during the hype generally remains. 3:56 high at best assuming everything goes perfectly.
What really boggles my mind, still, is that 3:34 by Kessler. I think we tend to forget about that and how fast that really is, because there wasn't the hype around it that there was for Webb's 3:53.
Agreed. Kessler is a Ryun level talent, ran faster than the NCAA record in HS, but seems to be forgotten when talking about US 1500m guys. Tbf he did have a ton of hype around him from when he ran 3:34 till he went out in the semis at the Trials, probably because he got overshadowed by Hocker. Then last year he only ran the #2 U20 time ever, so no one here cared. Sometime in the last year I said a 3:30-32 wouldn't shock me this year because he's got a great training setup, got past his growing pains last year, and is uber talented, but honestly his 3:32 still surprised me. Like I was expecting 3:32 in peak conditions, not his season opener to beat the US 1500m champ.
I'm predicting 3:53.23 for Burns. His resume is missing a fast 800, but he's the only junior to have run 3:58, and he's already broken the 5k national record this year. I'd have given him a better chance to break the mile record up until about 3 weeks ago. I'm really excited to see how Birnbaum does. He's been Beamish-esque in his big races, so I wanna see how he fares when the pace is super hot. I'd have thought 8:40 2M pace would be hot, but his kick was the stuff of legends at Arcadia. Now that I'm thinking about it, I'm kinda leaning towards him getting the record instead. Regardless, the race is gonna be sick, and there's a free livestream :D
I agree. There will be 6-8 guys at 1:57 and then some will go 63-64 for 4:04. I expect Heidesch to win in about 3:58 because he will be at the back of the lead pack.
I don't see anyone running 3:56.0 that would be a big drop and great for the sport. But I just don't see the underside from any of these three to go 3:55.x even. None of these guys I don't think have run under 1:50.00 have they(could be wrong of course)? I guess you could get to 3:56 as miler/two miler guys, but when Webb ran his, he had already run 1:47.x on a relay and scratch I think? And I don't think many do not think he could have run 8:30's low at least at least off that fitness level?
The one thing they will get the benefit of, is most likely perfect set up pacing from Sowinski who is great at that. Sahlman ran 3:56.x and was a 1:48 guy and 8:34? 3200 I think? Rocky Hansen just broke 4 and I think he has a great running style, going to 3:56? Hmmm..Young ran the 3:56 low at least close converted ..being a non 1:50 guy, but would be an outlier I think. I do think 2/3 may move into top top of the all time list .Gary Martin was plenty strong and had run 1:48.x scratch I believe. and 3:57.8x? Hard to be that much better than he?
Birnbaum actually was contemplating the 800m high school record before straining his hamstring. He thinks he can keep it in check for the mile distance and up.
The temp might dip below 80 degF, with RHhumidity ~56% at race time.
Birnbaum actually was contemplating the 800m high school record
Again, kids are delusional and say anything to generate buzz so they get that easy dopamine hit on social media
Kessler showed up with zero fanfare and dropped 3:57 indoors and 3:34 outdoors.
New crop of runners obsessed with their own reflections and talk big games then have some convenient excuse in their back pocket. At least Cade Flatt got close, but look what happened to him — crickets.
At this level of running, these guys have a pretty good idea of their fitness level and what they are potentially capable of. Now sure, they can have the occasional bad, inexplicable race result. But on the other hand, they are still developing, capable of posting big PR’s.
Some negativity on this thread. We could be looking at a race where possibly four of five boys go sub 4.
I agree that they won’t break Webb’s record but the fact that there are three guys entered already having run sub 4 is a feat unto itself. I’ll still be rooting for them to break Webb’s record regardless.
Not trying to be a downer but I'd be shocked if more than 2 dip under 4:00. Coverage starts in 1 minute. Will this be the official thread (for all 6 of us interested)?
I am going to go out on a limb and say there is a 50% chance. while I agree with most of what has been said, I think the brain trust is forgetting that these are high school kids.
They can rapidly improve and maybe have not had a good chance to display their speed. Maybe they are 1:48 guys and have not had a rested, good weather, opportunity to demonstrate.
I’ve seen a 2:07 HS kid drop a 1:58. I saw a college freshman with a 2:02 PR close an extremely slow, tactical 1500 in 1:56. Crazy stuff happens when you are young and growing, learning, maturing at such a rapid pace.
This kid that just won the middle school mile should be disqualified. He very aggressively cut off and elbowed another kid multiple times. Absolute douche move.
Burns was only able to muster a 1:53.80 anchor leg for his 4x800 at state while chasing another team at the state meet. It was the only race he ran hard the whole weekend. That was all he had.
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