Turning pro ranked 101st U.S. all-time 1500m? Turning pro ranked 77th U.S. all-time 5000m? Really?
Even if those stats are true, she's a lot faster than some of the females that joined various pro teams like the defunct Reebok at the time.
Exactly. And what does a ranking of "all time" have to do with her current ranking? She's top 30 in the world right now in the 5K at 20. Other college grads were lucky to even get a pro contract. No one ever heard of them when they joined and they did nothing special in the NCAA
Even if those stats are true, she's a lot faster than some of the females that joined various pro teams like the defunct Reebok at the time.
Exactly. And what does a ranking of "all time" have to do with her current ranking? She's top 30 in the world right now in the 5K at 20. Other college grads were lucky to even get a pro contract. No one ever heard of them when they joined and they did nothing special in the NCAA
Basically every year the top 10-15 ladies in the NCAA 'go pro' in some form or another. They may not be setting any records, but they are the best we got. Occasionally, there are some huge surprises. Who would have thunk that Val Constein (still unsponsored), or Heather MacLean would go on to make US teams? Or that miler Sage Hurta would finish 2nd in the overall Diamond League 800 standings? I'm even pleasantly shocked how much Elly Henes improved. The system is really kind of brutal, but anyone 'decent' can find a way to chase the dream for a year or two.
That wasn't the point. People try to compare times of pros from 5 or 10 years ago. Whatever 15 minute women were getting is what 14:30 women get today. And how the heck to you project her progress to 14:30. Not another woman only improved so little as her for the past 5 years but then dropped 45 seconds after age 21.
Everying is a gain for her and the only thing she losses if she turns pro is her fans because pros rarely races compared to college runners who run every two weeks for 3 seasons.
The obvious solution is to race more as a pro.
There has to be some pro coach and/or agent who gets this.
That wasn't the point. People try to compare times of pros from 5 or 10 years ago. Whatever 15 minute women were getting is what 14:30 women get today. And how the heck to you project her progress to 14:30. Not another woman only improved so little as her for the past 5 years but then dropped 45 seconds after age 21.
The flaw in your arguement is that she was running much faster at young ages than others, and yet she still continues to improve. And if you think her current 5000 m capability is still 15:15, I think you are mistaken after she ran 8:35 and actually beat a runner who has already run 14:52. I suspect she has already dropped the first 25 seconds of the 45 you mention. Can she drop another 20 seconds in the next 2 years? I don't know, but that is a lot less than Monson and Schweitzer did upon turning pro after very good college careers including a lot of improvement.
That wasn't the point. People try to compare times of pros from 5 or 10 years ago. Whatever 15 minute women were getting is what 14:30 women get today. And how the heck to you project her progress to 14:30. Not another woman only improved so little as her for the past 5 years but then dropped 45 seconds after age 21.
You’ve understandably become anti-Tuohy as a result of the over the top hype, but your logic is twisted. “Improved so little” is ridiculous. Did she run 8:35 at age 16 or win NCAA XC?
You call it a flaw but I have data to show the rate and amount of improvent for them. You have no example for your projection. I will call her a 15:00 runner now which would require 30 seconds of improvement. She not improve at all. We have nobody to use in order to make logical projections.
You call it a flaw but I have data to show the rate and amount of improvent for them. You have no example for your projection. I will call her a 15:00 runner now which would require 30 seconds of improvement. She not improve at all. We have nobody to use in order to make logical projections.
ok so after dropping 19 seconds in her 3000 time over the last year, you will estimate her 5000 improvement over the same time at 15 seconds, and then say that will be it. I see. You are ignoring the trend I think.
You call it a flaw but I have data to show the rate and amount of improvent for them. You have no example for your projection. I will call her a 15:00 runner now which would require 30 seconds of improvement. She not improve at all. We have nobody to use in order to make logical projections.
You’re cherry picking PRs. Her 8:35 converts to 14:45 and I don’t see how you can deny that’s she had significant improvement over the last year.
I don’t believe there’s the perfect comp to project any runner’s improvement. Will the Young twins match Nico’s success? Will Aaron not finish in the top 100 at NCAAs like his older brother.
Well you have thousands to choose from but you haven't found one. Post one person and their improvement from age 16-21 at the amount that Tuohy improves and then show that they dropped another 30-45 seconds after.
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