I really believe that the 5000 is Tuohy's to lose but with it being at altitude, it may be closer than many think.
Chelangat & Olemomoi are both from parts of Kenya that are at about 2000 m altitude. Obviously they are not still benefitting from that altitude but there have been studies done showing that growing up at altitude can cause physiological changes leading to increased hemoglobin for years. That said, the altitude for those pathways to occur more than likely would need to be higher than 2000 m. It is probably closer to 2500 m.
I'm glad to see Dudek in the field and making improvements.
I am real curious how they think nc st could win dmr with several fresh teams there including ND who beat them with tuohy fresh.
I wouldn’t bet on it, but they should make up significant time on their 400 leg, even without an ace. They were 2.29 seconds behind the winners at ACCs with a 58.41 400 leg, by far the slowest in the race. They have a different 400 runner who ran 56.21 in the open 400 in January - so hypothetically that gets them right up with Duke. If they can fare better on the 1200 as well they could at least be in contention.
I am real curious how they think nc st could win dmr with several fresh teams there including ND who beat them with tuohy fresh.
I wouldn’t bet on it, but they should make up significant time on their 400 leg, even without an ace. They were 2.29 seconds behind the winners at ACCs with a 58.41 400 leg, by far the slowest in the race. They have a different 400 runner who ran 56.21 in the open 400 in January - so hypothetically that gets them right up with Duke. If they can fare better on the 1200 as well they could at least be in contention.
But then they will now (maybe) have Tuohy running 20 minutes after a 5000. if Tuohy was fresh I was thinking they could be close to the WA record at sea level, but she has to lose 5-8 seconds at a minimum no (off the 4:23 she ran)? Without her they probably give up 12-15 seconds. Can't see how they could do it either way.
I wouldn’t bet on it, but they should make up significant time on their 400 leg, even without an ace. They were 2.29 seconds behind the winners at ACCs with a 58.41 400 leg, by far the slowest in the race. They have a different 400 runner who ran 56.21 in the open 400 in January - so hypothetically that gets them right up with Duke. If they can fare better on the 1200 as well they could at least be in contention.
But then they will now (maybe) have Tuohy running 20 minutes after a 5000. if Tuohy was fresh I was thinking they could be close to the WA record at sea level, but she has to lose 5-8 seconds at a minimum no (off the 4:23 she ran)? Without her they probably give up 12-15 seconds. Can't see how they could do it either way.
You’re probably right, I just don’t think it’s too crazy or that they’ll be that far out of it if Tuohy runs. She’ll have ~30 minutes rest and there’s a fair chance that the 5k will be more like a 3.4k tempo and a 1.6k race, or whatever. I could see her running 4:27 (sea level) under those circumstances.
I really believe that the 5000 is Tuohy's to lose but with it being at altitude, it may be closer than many think.
Chelangat & Olemomoi are both from parts of Kenya that are at about 2000 m altitude. Obviously they are not still benefitting from that altitude but there have been studies done showing that growing up at altitude can cause physiological changes leading to increased hemoglobin for years. That said, the altitude for those pathways to occur more than likely would need to be higher than 2000 m. It is probably closer to 2500 m.
I'm glad to see Dudek in the field and making improvements.
I think so too. The region of Kenya Olemomoi is from is over 6000ft on average. Runners who grew up racing at altitude will be used to it, and it could be closer than we think. This is one of the (many) reasons why I like Gregory for the mile, because she grew up in Colorado.
But then they will now (maybe) have Tuohy running 20 minutes after a 5000. if Tuohy was fresh I was thinking they could be close to the WA record at sea level, but she has to lose 5-8 seconds at a minimum no (off the 4:23 she ran)? Without her they probably give up 12-15 seconds. Can't see how they could do it either way.
You’re probably right, I just don’t think it’s too crazy or that they’ll be that far out of it if Tuohy runs. She’ll have ~30 minutes rest and there’s a fair chance that the 5k will be more like a 3.4k tempo and a 1.6k race, or whatever. I could see her running 4:27 (sea level) under those circumstances.
I will be surprised of the 2 AL runners and the 6 ladies from altitude let the pace go that slow for that long. But, I have been wrong before. Maybe they will be running for 2nd.
I really believe that the 5000 is Tuohy's to lose but with it being at altitude, it may be closer than many think.
Chelangat & Olemomoi are both from parts of Kenya that are at about 2000 m altitude. Obviously they are not still benefitting from that altitude but there have been studies done showing that growing up at altitude can cause physiological changes leading to increased hemoglobin for years. That said, the altitude for those pathways to occur more than likely would need to be higher than 2000 m. It is probably closer to 2500 m.
I'm glad to see Dudek in the field and making improvements.
400 - Chapman appears to be recovered and Henson is a useful backup good 200/300m runner, so if they really try to score they would have fitter Shaw and a fresh Bush to go w/tired Touhy. More likely they run b team.
Dudek - with Dudek, Cook, Chmiel and Touhy we may have a record for getting hs stars to the start line of an NCAA final.
These 4 are joined by 5 foreigners and 7 'coach 'em up' athletes, just for a feel how recruiting pays off.
400 - Chapman appears to be recovered and Henson is a useful backup good 200/300m runner, so if they really try to score they would have fitter Shaw and a fresh Bush to go w/tired Touhy. More likely they run b team.
Even with Chapman I just don't see it. Washington keeping O Sullivan fresh for that lead off leg, Oklahoma with a fresh Galvydyte.... 3:24 is not going to cut it.
Our inside man tuffy claims they run the b team...
If KT does run, sometimes this race bunches up and altitude may contribute to that. If she can creep back into the race before 600 to go, it might be interesting. Tired Touhy may only have 5 seconds v the field here 4:30 v 4:35, so it's no easy task.
Also someone like O'Sullivan or Barnett (Butler last year) runs a pr to win the race. UCLA w Barnett is my sleeper pick here.
Our inside man tuffy claims they run the b team...
If KT does run, sometimes this race bunches up and altitude may contribute to that. If she can creep back into the race before 600 to go, it might be interesting. Tired Touhy may only have 5 seconds v the field here 4:30 v 4:35, so it's no easy task.
Also someone like O'Sullivan or Barnett (Butler last year) runs a pr to win the race. UCLA w Barnett is my sleeper pick here.
I think they will run Shaw, Chapman, Bush, and Hartman. Maybe they can sneak into the top 8 and score. If Tuohy can win the 5k and 3k and score 20 points and Chmiel, Seymour, and Bush can pick up some points in 5k and 3k the team should finish fairly high in the team race.
Even with Chapman I just don't see it. Washington keeping O Sullivan fresh for that lead off leg, Oklahoma with a fresh Galvydyte.... 3:24 is not going to cut it.
BYU who beat OSU by 1.4 seconds at Arkansas will also be in the mix. Their lead off leg who ran 3:20 in that race also scratched the mile so all four will be fresh. And training at altitude might be worth a second or two.
I really believe that the 5000 is Tuohy's to lose but with it being at altitude, it may be closer than many think.
Here's my thoughts on women's 5k. Team tactics New Mexico w/ Larkin and Mazza-Downie most likely to work together. They have nothing to lose and all to gain at home. Larkin will lead out for Mazza-Downie. 'bama - Unlike most others I see Olemomoi and 2 time ncaa champ Chelangat as equals in this 5k and the 3k. They want a fast pace and will follow NM. If not fast enough, they will take over at 3k mark. nc state wants this to be slow. Touhy will hang w/leaders looking for her 1k wind up close. Chmiel likes to work her way thru the field finishing strong and Seymour will run w/ Chmiel.
Altitude Ladies In addition to NM & AL, Venters, Baran, Stearns, Carter and Frentheway also benefit from the quicker pace. Venters appears to be a real threat here and Stearns is my sleeper pick.
The rest Dudek and Cook are mysteries, Smee and Vestri do not appear to have current fitness to be a threat.
Result Touhy in 15:40, Mazza-Downie, Venters, Chmiel, Chelangat, Olemomoi, Stearns, Seymour.
But I think she'll just do enough to win and probably put like a 2 second gap on the field at around the 800 mark and then just cruise to a three or four second win
Maybe she finds a little more competition in the 3K from fresh legs but still is able to cruise to a 2 second win