I have been having a debate about this for the simple fact that I find it mind-boggling that a 23 year old ran 2:01:53 on his Marathon debut (Yes, he has a 58:42 Half Marathon PB). I have some friends who believe he could break Two Hours this year either in London or Valencia.
Eliud Kipchoge opened his 2:01:09 World Record with 59:51 and proved that the GOAT himself couldn't do it under Ideal Conditions. Yet, my friends believe Kelvin Kiptum can. Remember Kipchoge needed absolute insane conditions to pull off 1:59:40.
Do you guys think Kiptum will be as consistent with Kipchoge and run 2:00-2:03 in almost any race he goes to? or is he a One-hit Wonder like Bekele or Dennis Kimetto.
If there is someone who can do it, it is this guy.
The two guys from Berlin Marathon, Kipkemboi and Tadese Tekele could as well. They are in their early twenties.
I don't think anyone will break it for a long time.
No one has gone under 2:01 yet and then there's a whole other minute to shave off.
Kiptum did a 27 10K at the end of the London marathon. How can he possibly run faster than that?
He went under 2:01 and dropped another Sub 28 so...I'll say Sub 2 is gone by the end of 2024.
The Olympics will make that harder. Sub 2 won't happen in the Olympics itself, and the timing of the Olympics makes it hard to do Berlin or Chicago that year
He went under 2:01 and dropped another Sub 28 so...I'll say Sub 2 is gone by the end of 2024.
The Olympics will make that harder. Sub 2 won't happen in the Olympics itself, and the timing of the Olympics makes it hard to do Berlin or Chicago that year
He could run the Olympics and still go after the WR in Valencia. Or he could run Tokyo/London again then run the Olympics. 4-5 months is more than enough time for him to prep.
2022 Valencia (2:01:53) 4 DEC 2022
2023 London (2:01:25) 23 APR 2023
2023 Chicago (2:00:35) 8 OCT 2023
His gap between his debut and London was 4 months, 19 Days.
His gap between London and Chicago was 5 months, 15 Days.
It's unusual for someone to throw down 3 Sub-2:02s (One being a WR) in a span of 10 months. But hey......guys talented I guess.
Of course as one of the few sub 2:02 runners ever, Kiptum's prospects at breaking 2 are far better than most humans. That does not mean that it is a probable outcome. The majority of super-quick debutantes never really reach that level again, so that's the first thing to look out for - it's possible that Kiptum will already show frailty and inconsistency in London, and then quickly recede from relevance.
If on the other hand he has a good showing in London, we can begin operating under the assumption that he will a nontrivial career, and may have a shot at lowering his personal best. Even in that case, dropping two minutes off a time already that quick is astronomically difficult and unlikely. Eliud's 2:01:09 seems to show that something in the neighborhood of 2:00:30-50 is humanly possible, and so it is possible that Kiptum has something like that level of talent. Still, I wouldn't hold my breath for him to break 2:01, let alone 2:00. I won't break out exhaustive stats now, but you've got to remember that a good many sub 2:04 runners only ever do it once. PRing at this level is not a common occurrence, unless you're Eliud Kipchoge. Kiptum would do well to run sub 2:03 or even sub 2:04 ever again...
All time runners with 2 or more sub 2:04 performances:
Wilson Kipsang (2:03:58, 2:03:42, 2:03:23, 2:03:13)
That's Eliud with 6, Wilson with 4, and 6 other runners with 2 each. The total number of sub 2:04 performances ever is 42 = 6 + 4 + 2*6 + 1*20. Of the 28 sub 2:04 performers all time, 20 managed it just once, 6 twice. Now Tola, Kipruto, Kipchoge, and perhaps Legesse are still active with good to non-zero chances of getting more sub 2:04 performances. Many of the other sub 2:04 runners are of course relatively recent and still active, so thinks will inevitably shift. Still, no matter how you slice it, running under 2:04 even just twice puts you in the company of eight or so.
And notice how the list would change if we tightened it to sub 2:03: only one man has ever managed that more than once.
And notice how the list would change if we tightened it to sub 2:02: only one man has ever managed it more than twice (hint: It isn't Kipchoge)
as heartwarming as your analysis was at the time, 8 months later you were proven wrong.
Kiptum has run 3 Marathons and all three under 2:02 with an average of 2:01:17. While Kipchoge's top 3 fastest ever:
2:01:09 (2022 Berlin)
2:01:39 (2018 Berlin)
2:02:37 (2019 London)
All come to an average of 2:01:48
Which is barely 5 seconds faster than Kiptum's slowest/debut.
Don't ever give an analysis again. That was so far from the truth. Kiptum's next marathon (I will say this now) is likely going to become the Sub-2 Hour Marathon. So March/April 2024. Likely London or Tokyo. R.I.P Kipchoge's legacy.
Don't ever give an analysis again. That was so far from the truth.
Was this hostility really necessary? He gave the hard data which is a useful input, and made made some conjectures based on quite sound logic. While it is shown wrong, looking back at it it is possible to see how astonishing yesterday's performance is.
One does not have to always guess right to provide value to discussion. Sometimes even the contrary!
Was this hostility really necessary? He gave the hard data which is a useful input, and made made some conjectures based on quite sound logic. While it is shown wrong, looking back at it it is possible to see how astonishing yesterday's performance is.
One does not have to always guess right to provide value to discussion. Sometimes even the contrary!
Because I keep providing the dystopian reality of Kiptum being the first sub two hour marathoner. And people keep downvoting me each time thinking that he'll slow down or won't overtake Kipchoge and alas it happens. Next is Sub 2 and you all know it. I predicted London in 2:01 and letsrun users drooled like Idiots. I said Today would be a coin-flip probability of the WR and people doubted it and downvoted me.
He might be doping but, I'm not wrong on his capabilities.
If Kiptum Is going to run a marathon before Paris next year, It will surely be Tokyo because It Is scheduled on 03 March (5 months and 10 days before the Olympics). London is scheduled on 21th April so it is too close to Paris (only 3 months and half).
Ah other possibility Is that One that sees Kiptum running the Olympic marathon in Paris as the first marathon of the season and then going to Valencia.
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