Interesting. Kipchoge is such an outlier that I think it's actually not wise to train in his group. Only Kamworor has had success from that group and I actually think there's room for improvement. And many talents like Augustine Choge haven't really reached their potential. Abdi Nageeye trained with them and didn't really have great success until he left. It might be anecdotal at this point but I think Kipchoge's training system works for Kipchoge and few else.
As for his transition age to the marathon, it's well understood that most Kenyan juniors in his day padded their ages a bit. It's scary to think that he might actually be in his 40s and doing this.
Yes, I overlooked Di Nascimento. But that still only makes four non-Africans who have gone sub-2:06 compared to 151 African-born athletes.
That said, I agree that more Europeans and Americans should get there in the supershoe era. Too many good distance runners from those areas don't see the marathon as their calling, but just a way to extend their careers. The best example of what a top tier European talent can do by moving to the marathon early is Paula Radcliffe. Mantz is doing it right. There needs to be greater recognition that experience really matters in marathon running, it's not something athletes can dabble in. I think Mo Farah found this out which is why he never reached his potential in the event - he should easily have run 2:04-low and possibly 2:03 but he wasn't prepared to do the learning curve.
Yeah, we mostly agree. Rupp is a good case for this, as he switched in his age-30 season. He left a little meat on the bone as far as his PB, but in contrast to Scott his physical peak was a couple years before switching ('12-'14). Scott's is ('20-Present) current unless last summer and fall weren't aberrational with injuries/illnesses. So while it might not be perfectly ideal to switch now (unlike Mantz say) it's pretty close and I think we could see both climb pretty high on the regional (and non-African/Japanese) lists. On the US side of things, I hope Nico Young and some others with very high upside on the roads don't wait if they're stuck in a gray area (4th-6th at USA) on the track.
Mo closed a (slow) 5k in 50 high. In a 400m he could clearly run 49-50 (or faster), which translates remarkably well your vaunted 24.6. And 3:28 is a pretty good measure of “speed” in the context of the marathon.
Stop being deliberately obtuse.
It doesn't work like that. This discussion has been going around and around here in the 20 years I've been posting.
Elite distance runners aren't 'fast' in real speed terms, around 8 meters per second or so. Mo is slightly quicker, Marc slightly quicker still.
What these guys have is superior speed endurance. Mo at his peak could run 50 for 400 but around 25.0 for 200, a shade under 13 for 100. He ran 1.48 for 800 when he was 19. So his 3.28 shouldn't have been a surprise for the man whose UK 1500 record he broke, Steve Cram. But Cram was incredulous, even though Mo told him before the race.
You are on drugs if you think Mo Farah's peak was 25.0 for 200m.
Yeah I was thinking long term. First one out 2:07-08 would be great. Let’s be real though, he has too much talent to be thinking he’ll max out at what the likes of Leonard Korir, Scotty Fauble are running. He’s run 12:57, this is a major talent.
I think 2:07 is a reasonable high end prediction. He's better than Mantz over every other distance and he debuted with 2:08. But 2:04-2:05 is rarified air. Only one non-African born man has gone 2:04 ( Suzuki), and only two more have run 2:05 (Osaka and Moen). Odds are that Scott doesn't get there but 2:06 is a good possibility
You can add to the list Amdouni borned in France (2:05) and Do Nascimento (2:04)
It doesn't work like that. This discussion has been going around and around here in the 20 years I've been posting.
Elite distance runners aren't 'fast' in real speed terms, around 8 meters per second or so. Mo is slightly quicker, Marc slightly quicker still.
What these guys have is superior speed endurance. Mo at his peak could run 50 for 400 but around 25.0 for 200, a shade under 13 for 100. He ran 1.48 for 800 when he was 19. So his 3.28 shouldn't have been a surprise for the man whose UK 1500 record he broke, Steve Cram. But Cram was incredulous, even though Mo told him before the race.
You are on drugs if you think Mo Farah's peak was 25.0 for 200m.
Mo closed a (slow) 5k in 50 high. In a 400m he could clearly run 49-50 (or faster), which translates remarkably well your vaunted 24.6. And 3:28 is a pretty good measure of “speed” in the context of the marathon.
Stop being deliberately obtuse.
It doesn't work like that. This discussion has been going around and around here in the 20 years I've been posting.
Elite distance runners aren't 'fast' in real speed terms, around 8 meters per second or so. Mo is slightly quicker, Marc slightly quicker still.
What these guys have is superior speed endurance. Mo at his peak could run 50 for 400 but around 25.0 for 200, a shade under 13 for 100. He ran 1.48 for 800 when he was 19. So his 3.28 shouldn't have been a surprise for the man whose UK 1500 record he broke, Steve Cram. But Cram was incredulous, even though Mo told him before the race.
... so you want to play semantics?
Let's break this down. First, define speed. You want to define it as pure, top end, absolute peak mechanical and metabolic pace sustained for an arbitrary distance, in this case 200m. Fine. Let's use that.
Here's the first problem with your argument. You have a quantitative data point for one runner, and can only surmise the point for the other. So, you simply cannot state one runner has more speed based on your arbitrarily chosen distance.
Second problem. You're arguing that a runner who could close a 5k in 50 high could not run even a full second faster in a pure 400m race. That seems... unlikely. Using the
of Purdy, VO2 Max, Cameron and Riegal performance predictors (yeah, I know they're flawed), a 3:28 1500m converts to a 47.3. Cut that in half and you have 23.65. Probably about a second fast, but it's enough to make my point. Obviously, I'm suffering from the same methodological flaw you are here. I can't use this as a statement of fact. Only probability. And the raw probability based on those quantitative scoring/predictors is that Mo in fact had more raw speed (by your definition).
Third problem. Does it matter? As you pointed out, there is a difference between raw speed and speed endurance. Raw speed doesn't tell us much here. If we're trying to predict 1500m times, it tells us a little more, though not much. As I just established, based on your arbitrary measure of speed, Mo likely is "faster." This alone renders your whole argument unlikely to be correct. But we're not trying to predict 1500m times. Marc was a 5k/10k guy, where aerobic capacity is far more important than raw speed. And, like you said, elite distance runners aren't really that "fast" compared to sprinters, or NFL wideouts for that matter. But that measure of raw speed doesn't tell us a thing when it comes to predicting mid-long distance performance. Are we really arguing that Tyreek Hill has more potential in the 5k than Marc because he has more raw speed? This renders your argument pointless.
Finally, I appreciate Steve Cram. Great athlete. But appealing to authority doesn't make your argument any stronger.
Yes, I overlooked Di Nascimento. But that still only makes four non-Africans who have gone sub-2:06 compared to 151 African-born athletes.
That said, I agree that more Europeans and Americans should get there in the supershoe era. Too many good distance runners from those areas don't see the marathon as their calling, but just a way to extend their careers. The best example of what a top tier European talent can do by moving to the marathon early is Paula Radcliffe. Mantz is doing it right. There needs to be greater recognition that experience really matters in marathon running, it's not something athletes can dabble in. I think Mo Farah found this out which is why he never reached his potential in the event - he should easily have run 2:04-low and possibly 2:03 but he wasn't prepared to do the learning curve.
Yeah, we mostly agree. Rupp is a good case for this, as he switched in his age-30 season. He left a little meat on the bone as far as his PB, but in contrast to Scott his physical peak was a couple years before switching ('12-'14). Scott's is ('20-Present) current unless last summer and fall weren't aberrational with injuries/illnesses. So while it might not be perfectly ideal to switch now (unlike Mantz say) it's pretty close and I think we could see both climb pretty high on the regional (and non-African/Japanese) lists. On the US side of things, I hope Nico Young and some others with very high upside on the roads don't wait if they're stuck in a gray area (4th-6th at USA) on the track.
I don't know much about Nico Young, but one US runner I think should move up very soon is Joe Klecker. He seems to be well-suited to higher mileage and I can't see him doing anything really competitive in international 5 and 10k races on the track. I think he could scrape sub-13, maybe sub-27 with a bit of luck, but I think he can be more relevant on the roads. He's actually in a similar zone to Scott in terms of track performances but with a few more peak years to play with. He could be a 2:05 guy if he moves up early and On has a decent road supershoe
Where are you getting this from? He’s got a good kick but it isn’t anywhere near Farah. You seem to be the only one who sees this so I’d love to know what you’re actually basing it on
Anyone who is going to use Pof10 as a reference has a screw loose. It also says that Marc's 800m PR is 2.06. Lots of missing information from that site, especially when it comes to the speed of supposed distance runners. Lots of people I personally know who have incomplete or missing results for 200m/400m who are way faster (in workouts no less) than their PR's from this list.
It doesn't work like that. This discussion has been going around and around here in the 20 years I've been posting.
Elite distance runners aren't 'fast' in real speed terms, around 8 meters per second or so. Mo is slightly quicker, Marc slightly quicker still.
What these guys have is superior speed endurance. Mo at his peak could run 50 for 400 but around 25.0 for 200, a shade under 13 for 100. He ran 1.48 for 800 when he was 19. So his 3.28 shouldn't have been a surprise for the man whose UK 1500 record he broke, Steve Cram. But Cram was incredulous, even though Mo told him before the race.
... so you want to play semantics?
Let's break this down. First, define speed. You want to define it as pure, top end, absolute peak mechanical and metabolic pace sustained for an arbitrary distance, in this case 200m. Fine. Let's use that.
Here's the first problem with your argument. You have a quantitative data point for one runner, and can only surmise the point for the other. So, you simply cannot state one runner has more speed based on your arbitrarily chosen distance.
Second problem. You're arguing that a runner who could close a 5k in 50 high could not run even a full second faster in a pure 400m race. That seems... unlikely. Using the of Purdy, VO2 Max, Cameron and Riegal performance predictors (yeah, I know they're flawed), a 3:28 1500m converts to a 47.3. Cut that in half and you have 23.65. Probably about a second fast, but it's enough to make my point. Obviously, I'm suffering from the same methodological flaw you are here. I can't use this as a statement of fact. Only probability. And the raw probability based on those quantitative scoring/predictors is that Mo in fact had more raw speed (by your definition).
Third problem. Does it matter? As you pointed out, there is a difference between raw speed and speed endurance. Raw speed doesn't tell us much here. If we're trying to predict 1500m times, it tells us a little more, though not much. As I just established, based on your arbitrary measure of speed, Mo likely is "faster." This alone renders your whole argument unlikely to be correct. But we're not trying to predict 1500m times. Marc was a 5k/10k guy, where aerobic capacity is far more important than raw speed. And, like you said, elite distance runners aren't really that "fast" compared to sprinters, or NFL wideouts for that matter. But that measure of raw speed doesn't tell us a thing when it comes to predicting mid-long distance performance. Are we really arguing that Tyreek Hill has more potential in the 5k than Marc because he has more raw speed? This renders your argument pointless.
Finally, I appreciate Steve Cram. Great athlete. But appealing to authority doesn't make your argument any stronger.
Like I said these arguments have gone around and around all the 20 years I've been posting here. People like you make silly arguments based on lack of knowledge of the sport and individual athletes.
Anyone who is going to use Pof10 as a reference has a screw loose. It also says that Marc's 800m PR is 2.06. Lots of missing information from that site, especially when it comes to the speed of supposed distance runners. Lots of people I personally know who have incomplete or missing results for 200m/400m who are way faster (in workouts no less) than their PR's from this list.
What has that got to with with the fact that he ran 24.6 in a 200 in a minor league race with only 30 people watching?
Anyone who is going to use Pof10 as a reference has a screw loose. It also says that Marc's 800m PR is 2.06. Lots of missing information from that site, especially when it comes to the speed of supposed distance runners. Lots of people I personally know who have incomplete or missing results for 200m/400m who are way faster (in workouts no less) than their PR's from this list.
What has that got to with with the fact that he ran 24.6 in a 200 in a minor league race with only 30 people watching?
It means that he could have run faster any other time that wasn't recorded as a race. Not like he suited up for a lot of 200m races. So it is an ingenuous PR/PB, just like his 800m time (2.06) according to Po10. Pretty sure he could (and likely did) run much faster, even in a workout. So why would you even bother to reference a time from there? It certainly isn't indicative of his actual ability for 200m.
This should be really interesting. He’s shown pretty good promise in the roads. I think there’s potential he can run low 59s/2:04-2:05s if things click.
Agreed on half time. He'll probably max out at 2:07 for the Marathon. He's built like a soccer player. I could see him running sub 27 for 10,000m too.
He's a bit like Solinsky in that regard - stocky with wheels.
Eh I don’t know if they’re too comparable. Scott’s certainly not rail thin but he doesn’t look noticeably husky like Solinsky. I don’t know if I buy that his body type won’t work for the full.
Yeah, we mostly agree. Rupp is a good case for this, as he switched in his age-30 season. He left a little meat on the bone as far as his PB, but in contrast to Scott his physical peak was a couple years before switching ('12-'14). Scott's is ('20-Present) current unless last summer and fall weren't aberrational with injuries/illnesses. So while it might not be perfectly ideal to switch now (unlike Mantz say) it's pretty close and I think we could see both climb pretty high on the regional (and non-African/Japanese) lists. On the US side of things, I hope Nico Young and some others with very high upside on the roads don't wait if they're stuck in a gray area (4th-6th at USA) on the track.
I don't know much about Nico Young, but one US runner I think should move up very soon is Joe Klecker. He seems to be well-suited to higher mileage and I can't see him doing anything really competitive in international 5 and 10k races on the track. I think he could scrape sub-13, maybe sub-27 with a bit of luck, but I think he can be more relevant on the roads. He's actually in a similar zone to Scott in terms of track performances but with a few more peak years to play with. He could be a 2:05 guy if he moves up early and On has a decent road supershoe
I love Joe Klecker but I don't think so. And it isn't a Joe's problem.
Americans just haven't figured out the marathon. We haven't figured out how to run 2:05 except in 2 anomalies (Ryan Hall Boston and KK who is a legend).
If you want to run 2:05 you gotta do what Marc is doing- go to kenya and do it their way.
I don't know much about Nico Young, but one US runner I think should move up very soon is Joe Klecker. He seems to be well-suited to higher mileage and I can't see him doing anything really competitive in international 5 and 10k races on the track. I think he could scrape sub-13, maybe sub-27 with a bit of luck, but I think he can be more relevant on the roads. He's actually in a similar zone to Scott in terms of track performances but with a few more peak years to play with. He could be a 2:05 guy if he moves up early and On has a decent road supershoe
I love Joe Klecker but I don't think so. And it isn't a Joe's problem.
Americans just haven't figured out the marathon. We haven't figured out how to run 2:05 except in 2 anomalies (Ryan Hall Boston and KK who is a legend).
If you want to run 2:05 you gotta do what Marc is doing- go to kenya and do it their way.
With supershoes, I think 2:05 will be within reach of top guys from the US. How many top distance runners - people around 13-low and 27-low - have moved to the marathon at age 25-28? They all go when their track careers are finished and they're on the slide. A peak Joe Klecker can run 2:05-2:06. If he waits until he's 30, then he'll be a 2:07-2:08 guy at best
This should be really interesting. He’s shown pretty good promise in the roads. I think there’s potential he can run low 59s/2:04-2:05s if things click.
Agreed on half time. He'll probably max out at 2:07 for the Marathon. He's built like a soccer player. I could see him running sub 27 for 10,000m too.
He's a bit like Solinsky in that regard - stocky with wheels.
If sondre moen can run 2’05, don’t you think Scott would be at equal or greater talent?
Eh I don’t know if they’re too comparable. Scott’s certainly not rail thin but he doesn’t look noticeably husky like Solinsky. I don’t know if I buy that his body type won’t work for the full.
Imagine what would have been said about Rod Dixon!
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