Bruh....Aaron Sahlman is a legend but he isn't running 1:45 / 3:52 this year...
But he ran 1:48.91 once in really good conditions. It’s only 2.46 sec to break the record, and he will be a whole year older. You don’t think a 1:48 guy could drop 2.4 sec? That’s not much is it, or is it?
I say no he may have the aerobics to do so but definitely not the speed. In my opinion he needs a 47 high 400m for him to get the 800m record. What did he go last year 51 mid probably a 50 flat guy in actuality last year. If any I think he could potentially get the mile record. Prediction: 800m- 1:47.4 Mile 3:52- 3:56
“I wonder if he's just not motivated a lot of the time.”
Dumbest thing I’ve heard this week.
I said that because in L&L videos/interviews they've done, Aaron is the one that everyone says does the least work outside of actual running. Goofing off during the warmups, not doing as much recovery, eating right, etc. He ran 1:48 against his brother in March and 4:01 in June, but managed to come 4th at State somehow in May, along with not running under 1:51 the rest of the season. So it's definitely not because he was out of shape, and it's not because he had no competition. Maybe he's just a bit inconsistent, but if that's true, he sure manages to run fantastic races when it's important. Given that none of the other guys on the team have that issue, I figured maybe there's something about racing the best that gives him more motivation to race to his ability.
If you go back we have had a bunch of juniors who have run 1:48.5 800ms over the last 25 years. My impression is that few of those guys run faster senior year. I think it is hard for most of them to get in 1:46.x races.
That's an ok point, but how many of those juniors were XC national champs? I imagine not many. I also doubt there's any other XC champs who have stated their goal for track season as taking down Granville's record. A couple years ago you could say "How many seniors won their first XC race at nationals?", and that number would be 0. Aaron is just built different.
he's had a far better training environment for the last several years than the record-holders, has already been in crazy fast, paced races unlike elites of prior eras
don't see any reason to expect a big breakthrough from him. there were 2 guys in his class better in the mile last year ...
he's had a far better training environment for the last several years than the record-holders, has already been in crazy fast, paced races unlike elites of prior eras
don't see any reason to expect a big breakthrough from him. there were 2 guys in his class better in the mile last year ...
Even with years of aerobic development, breakthroughs can still happen, particularly at his age, due to maturity, both physically and mentally.
he's had a far better training environment for the last several years than the record-holders, has already been in crazy fast, paced races unlike elites of prior eras
don't see any reason to expect a big breakthrough from him. there were 2 guys in his class better in the mile last year ...
I think we can think of it this way. Aaron has already shown a lot more strength than he had last year with his most recent NXN win. Do we think it's possible for a mostly aerobically trained kid to drop 1 second in the 400m? If so, holding all things even, a 1 second drop in the 400m could result in a 2 second drop in the 800m if we assume linear improvement. That puts him at 1:46.91.
If we assume the he continues to develop aerobically, while also improving his 400m by 1s, that could result in a more than 2s improvement over 800m.
1:48/4:01/8:01 as a junior + an NXN title shattering the CR. Over the summer he said his goal was to break the 800 record, and a 2 second drop between junior and senior year doesn't seem like much of a stretch. If you could choose anyone to attempt a 3:53 mile, it wouldn't get much better than a 1:46/XC national champ guy. The only thing he's missing is a background in climbing.
He's got the best leg speed of anyone in his class, trounced the field at NXN, and has better PRs than Colin had going into track season last year. If he gets in the right races, I think he breaks both records.
You truly don’t understand how fast those marks are.
XC breakthroughs lead to track breakthroughs. Sahlman, Burns, and Birnbaum are going to have incredible track campaigns. There's no shortage of fast, paced races that hs'ers can get into nowadays, in addition to paced high school only races. We got away from the idea that milers can run fast 800s. But if you look back in history, you'll see a lot of them. Just look at Jake, Steve Scott, Alan Webb (faster in the 400 than most milers, granted), Centro, Ryun, .... So, I do believe that Sahlman can knock off a second or two in the 800m this year and at least get in the ballpark of the 800 record, while running the mile faster than his brother did.
he's had a far better training environment for the last several years than the record-holders, has already been in crazy fast, paced races unlike elites of prior eras
don't see any reason to expect a big breakthrough from him. there were 2 guys in his class better in the mile last year ...
I think we can think of it this way. Aaron has already shown a lot more strength than he had last year with his most recent NXN win. Do we think it's possible for a mostly aerobically trained kid to drop 1 second in the 400m? If so, holding all things even, a 1 second drop in the 400m could result in a 2 second drop in the 800m if we assume linear improvement. That puts him at 1:46.91.
If we assume the he continues to develop aerobically, while also improving his 400m by 1s, that could result in a more than 2s improvement over 800m.
He ran 4:01/ 8:01 last year. Is winning NXN really showing any more strength? Doesn't seem that way.
If you go back we have had a bunch of juniors who have run 1:48.5 800ms over the last 25 years. My impression is that few of those guys run faster senior year. I think it is hard for most of them to get in 1:46.x races.
That's an ok point, but how many of those juniors were XC national champs? I imagine not many. I also doubt there's any other XC champs who have stated their goal for track season as taking down Granville's record. A couple years ago you could say "How many seniors won their first XC race at nationals?", and that number would be 0. Aaron is just built different.
And how many of those XC champs broke broken1:47? :). He was a stud in XC last year and ran 1:49. He is a stud this year. Has he improved enough to run faster? Maybe. But maybe not.
Guys like Webb were faster and about as good as XC. But he didn't get it. Now some of that is he didn't run the race. AS spent all last year running the 800m. He didn't dominate.
I hope he gets it. But again look at all the 148.9 runners who came back for their senior year and let me know how many dropped 1s let alone 2....
That's an ok point, but how many of those juniors were XC national champs? I imagine not many. I also doubt there's any other XC champs who have stated their goal for track season as taking down Granville's record. A couple years ago you could say "How many seniors won their first XC race at nationals?", and that number would be 0. Aaron is just built different.
And how many of those XC champs broke broken1:47? :). He was a stud in XC last year and ran 1:49. He is a stud this year. Has he improved enough to run faster? Maybe. But maybe not.
Guys like Webb were faster and about as good as XC. But he didn't get it. Now some of that is he didn't run the race. AS spent all last year running the 800m. He didn't dominate.
I hope he gets it. But again look at all the 148.9 runners who came back for their senior year and let me know how many dropped 1s let alone 2....
Webb was not about as good in cross country. Webb got smashed by Ritzenhein by 20s. Sahlman’s NXN race probably would’ve beaten Ritz.
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