OFFICIAL 2022 WOMENS Individual NCAA D1 XC Championships Predictions

I think Kemboi from UVU may surprise some people.

Kemboi, Olemomoi, Jepkirui, Stearns, Mitchell, Cook, Markezich, Tyynismaa are all on my 'prepare to be surprised' list.

Loving the scenarios.

I agree with quite a few, and my top-10 was difficult to create, as there are quite a few right outside that bubble like Markezich, Olemomio (ALMOST put her at #10 myself), Kaylee Mitchell almost made my #10 as well. 11th through 20th are all pretty darn close to being top-10 finishers themselves. Those three names are definitely in there.

I also agree that Valby and McCabe have nothing to lose. No team title to worry about. All the women in this race know that, (or should). All the leaders will still be keying off Tuohy, I believe, just like we saw at Nuttycombe.

With that in mind; if Valby and McCabe take off, they’ll let them go, and hope they flame out on that final hill. They’ll remain within striking distance, but they won’t try to push themselves any harder than necessary with the team goals in mind. I think they’ll try to remain within 6 seconds at the base of that final hill and THEN go for it, having conserved as much energy as they could.

Now, if anyone of Chelangat, or Roe or Tuohy go with them as well? They’ll ALL go. Anyone that can maintain that pace, that is.

If McCabe is within 2 seconds of anyone within 100 meters of that finish, I think it’s McCabe’s victory.

My guess is that Valby hits the bottom of that hill first, with McCabe right with her, and Tuohy and Chmiel and Chelangat and Roe right behind them.

That’s when the race starts.

Cannot bank on Valby flaming out. I don't see Tuohy not trying to win based on the team title unless she is injured.

Oh I think Tuohy still wins.

Thst is assuming Valby is not another magic unicorn.

Yeah if Tuohy actually IS injured, strained hamstring or whatever, and still runs, that changes everything. No way to know that though.

If it is just soreness that is nothing she hasn't run through before. I mean she broke the U20 record injured. Won nxn injured. Etc. My guess from yesterday is she had a cramp.

They will all need to drop try and Mccabe, she has the best 200m sprint.

Tuohy will need to drop Chelangat too; Chelangat can close in 3 flat (or has in the past).

Chelangat and Roe have confused me a bit this season. They are each top 5 for 5k PRs in the conference but haven't won any races. Playing it conservatively I guess?

Tuohy already seriously outkicked Chelangat this season. Her and McCabe is now pretty even in that department.

Roe was going for it at Big 12, and dropped her teammates Jepkirui by 8 seconds and Cook by 11 seconds, but lost to McCabe by 2 seconds. Lesson learned by watching McCabe in many races. Don’t let her be running side-by-side with you to the end, she’ll win.

Absolutely correct. This is why I have Chmiel, Chelangat and McCabe evenly matched overall. It could be anyone of those three for 3rd place.

and for the umpteenth time, that was not a fast paced race. I think this race will be faster than 2021 (FL) thru 3 and 4K, hills or no hills

The weather may play a factor; however, I agree this race is going to be extremely fast. That course record is going down, regardless of conditions.

Recall in FL Chelangat held off McCabe over last 500.

Tuohy beat valby by 2 seconds at regionals and 2 seconds at NCAA 5k champ.... If she was really coming off a serious injury and improving it's funny that she didn't show any improvement in those two weeks!

I doubt anyone wins by more than 5 or 6 seconds... Probably more like two! Also McCabe is a good runner with a good kick but it's not any better than other runners! If it is why did she get out kicked last year and why doesn't she have a fast 1500 m time?

I have the following teams in serious contention for the trophy:

New Mexico-NC State-OU

The first two listed are very very close, and somewhat ahead of OU. Now that is with New Mexico’s 1st two runners coming in around 6-8 and NC States’s 1st two coming in around X-4 or X-5. The point of this post is that the position of X (whether it flips from 1-3) has little affect on New Mexico’s overall score, but the position of X is going to greatly affect the overall score and final standing of NC State (because NM and NCState are so close.)

Therefore, if Tuohy tries to hang with the lead pack of Valby, Chelangat, Kemboi, McCabe, and Howell (and maybe some other fast runners I’m missing whose team is not in contention), she could easily flip 2-3 sticks, and the trophy goes to New Mexico.

Why don’t you list your projected pegs for New Mexico and for NC State to see if what I’m saying makes sense, FastT.

But hey, according to a contingent here, 1st place is in the bag for a Tuohy that seems to always be able to run through injury, no problem. So maybe after-all there is something to the ‘magical unicorn’ that astro always, incessantly keeps bringing up, eh?