Jakob has been training like a pro since much younger than any other elite 1500m runner. You can't cheat the body, it only has certain amount of years / miles in it, so everyone, who thinks that Jakob is gonna race into his thirties are in for a surprise.
WC in 2023 and 2025, OG in 2024. No time to be chasing records and I don't see how Jakob could run 3:25 in a championship race.
Morcelli ran 3:28.86 age 22 3 years later peaked at 3:27.37 I think by age 25 Jacob could be about 3:27 low, 3:26 high
You do know, what N. Morceli did is irrelevant to the discussion. J.I. has a more realistic likelihood of racing low 12:4x 5000m than breaking 3:28 for 1500m.
Hobby joggers with 5min mile PRs (if at all) talking about Jakob and WRs and longevity... smh.
Fact No. 1:
Jakob has been training at professional intensity for ca. 15 years now, as he has stated himself. Very likely he is peaking right now, as it takes 10-15 years for elites to peak.
Fact No. 2:
It is always much more likely that someone will not break a WR as opposed to them breaking it. So much needs to go right to break it and so many different things can make it impossible.
Fact No. 3:
Jakobs PB is as much away from the WR (percentage wise) as Erriyon Knightons PB from the WR in 200m, Michael Normans in the 400m or Jacob Krops in the 5000m.
JI is definitely the greatest middle distance runner of all times in Europe, but running 3:25 is most likely too much to ask for.
I’m “crystal ball gazing” just like anyone else, but I put the over/unders on his lifetime bests at 3:27.3 and 12:40, at this point. I would guess he was capable of 3:28-low and ~12:43 this season if things had played out differently. Of course, Ingebrigtsen himself thought he was capable of sub-3:28 at the WCs, and his conjecture has more credence than any of ours.
As for world records, I could see him breaking the 4:44.79 and/or 7:58.61 World’s Bests. The 2k in particular is not a weak record, but it’s not as strong as the 1500/3k/5k records and the distance is perfect for Jakob. Easier to imagine him running 3:33.59 1500 pace for 2k than finding the extra gears to threaten 3:26.00.
2017 3:56.29 2018 3:52.28 2019 3:51.30 2020 did not race mile 2021 3:47.24 2022 3:46.46
Hopefully next year at Monaco, Tim will be back to his best, and he can pace Jakob to sub 3:27.5
People forget that Jakob still hasn't shown what he's capable of on the new Monaco track. I think it was relaid before the 2019 DL. In 2019, not only was Jakob nowhere near his present level, but Tim deliberately slowed it down. No Monaco in 2020. In 2021 he caught a virus the week before Monaco, but still ran 3:29.25 (and Tim 3:28.28 and Katir 3:28.76, which shows the new track is even faster than it was before). No 1500m at Monaco this year.
2017 3:56.29 2018 3:52.28 2019 3:51.30 2020 did not race mile 2021 3:47.24 2022 3:46.46
Hopefully next year at Monaco, Tim will be back to his best, and he can pace Jakob to sub 3:27.5
People forget that Jakob still hasn't shown what he's capable of on the new Monaco track. I think it was relaid before the 2019 DL. In 2019, not only was Jakob nowhere near his present level, but Tim deliberately slowed it down. No Monaco in 2020. In 2021 he caught a virus the week before Monaco, but still ran 3:29.25 (and Tim 3:28.28 and Katir 3:28.76, which shows the new track is even faster than it was before). No 1500m at Monaco this year.
There was a Monaco 1500 in 2020. Cheruiyot went out crazy fast and Jakob laid off the pace and spent the better part of the race closing the gap, running 3:28.68 (his first sub-3:30) for a close second. He was 19.
He still appears to be racing to do enough to win. He sits in the back at the start and when he goes to the front. He continually looks around to see where's his competition. When losing starts to become familiar to him. He'll change tactics and run faster than expected. I don't think he's run his best yet.
Really dumb to believe Jakob has hit his peak just because he didn't improve his 1500m time in a year when he doubled at two major championships and there was no Monaco 1500m.
Will run sub 3:28 at Monaco next year for sure.
This subject is likely a little bit complicated for you because it is not BLACK and WHITE. Jakob could have run under 3:28 this year. This is obvious. So although he finishes his career as a 3:28.32 runner, this was not his absolute ceiling. Jakob is likely going to continue to be a medal contender at whatever he chooses from 1500m, 5000m or even 10000m. However there are many factors at play which are likely to conspire against a 3:27 in the future, including his expected focus on global championships and his lack of 1:44 speed, in addition to he is getting older and has been training for a very long time. It also does not help that nobody can clearly push him in a time trial 3:27 race right now. We shall see.
Jakob could not have run under 3:28 this year. I do think he could’ve run 3:28.
Hobby joggers with 5min mile PRs (if at all) talking about Jakob and WRs and longevity... smh.
Fact No. 1:
Jakob has been training at professional intensity for ca. 15 years now, as he has stated himself. Very likely he is peaking right now, as it takes 10-15 years for elites to peak.
Fact No. 2:
kob is It is always much more likely that someone will not break a WR as opposed to them breaking it. So much needs to go right to break it and so many different things can make it impossible.
Fact No. 3:
Jakobs PB is as much away from the WR (percentage wise) as Erriyon Knightons PB from the WR in 200m, Michael Normans in the 400m or Jacob Krops in the 5000m.
JI is definitely the greatest middle distance runner of all times in Europe, but running 3:25 is most likely too much to ask for.
Jakob is a human being.
Like every other human being, he will hit his peak of physical strength in his mid to late 20s...think age 26 or 27.
Hobby joggers with 5min mile PRs (if at all) talking about Jakob and WRs and longevity... smh.
What are Brother O'Connell's and Renato's mile PRs?
There are "hobby joggers" who know a lot more than you ever will, you arrogant prick.
O'Connell or Canova would not be so sure about Jakob breaking the WR in 1500m, because they have a very good idea on what it takes and what Jakobs chances really are.
It's always lunatics like you, who think that Bolt or Warholm could have run 800m world record. Anyone with some understanding of the matter can tell you, that Jakob is peaking right now and 2,5s in 1500m on that level is A LOT. 2023 is WC, 2024 is OG, 2025 is WC again and Jakob is absolutely done by then.
JI is definitely the greatest middle distance runner of all times in Europe, but running 3:25 is most likely too much to ask for.
This is incorrect. Sebastian Coe was 2x Olympic Champ at 1500m, 2x Olympic silver at 800m, plus held the WR at both distances.
Mo Farah had about 6-8 years of dominating including twice doubling at 5k/10k.
Jakob is the best Norwegian distance runner of all time though.
10k is not middle distance and Jakob is faster than Farah in both 1500m and 5000m. Coe might still have an edge on Jakob, but not by the time Jakob is done.
Like every other human being, he will hit his peak of physical strength in his mid to late 20s...think age 26 or 27.
He has not yet peaked
Tell it to Nijel Amos. Young talents / early professionals do not last as long, as wear and tear on the body starts earlier.
Jakob might retire even earlier, as he is not used to getting beat and will mentally be done, once he gets a few more silvers and bronzes in a row. I think 2025 will be Jakobs last year in middle distance. Don't forget, that each year new talent enters the scene.
This is incorrect. Sebastian Coe was 2x Olympic Champ at 1500m, 2x Olympic silver at 800m, plus held the WR at both distances.
Mo Farah had about 6-8 years of dominating including twice doubling at 5k/10k.
Jakob is the best Norwegian distance runner of all time though.
10k is not middle distance and Jakob is faster than Farah in both 1500m and 5000m. Coe might still have an edge on Jakob, but not by the time Jakob is done.
Coe never did anything in terms of world class racing in any distance above one mile.
Not even in the 2000 meters.
Too limited a range to rate above (among Euros) Steve Ovett, Steve Cram, Jacob I.
Like every other human being, he will hit his peak of physical strength in his mid to late 20s...think age 26 or 27.
He has not yet peaked
Tell it to Nijel Amos. Young talents / early professionals do not last as long, as wear and tear on the body starts earlier.
Jakob might retire even earlier, as he is not used to getting beat and will mentally be done, once he gets a few more silvers and bronzes in a row. I think 2025 will be Jakobs last year in middle distance. Don't forget, that each year new talent enters the scene.
Yes, some athletes do get injuries.
Jacob has been training at a very high level for many years and does not seem injury prone however.
I would think that Jacob wants to break world records in the 1500m and mile and would not dismiss his chances.
10k is not middle distance and Jakob is faster than Farah in both 1500m and 5000m. Coe might still have an edge on Jakob, but not by the time Jakob is done.
Coe never did anything in terms of world class racing in any distance above one mile.
Not even in the 2000 meters.
Too limited a range to rate above (among Euros) Steve Ovett, Steve Cram, Jacob I.
C'mon man, that's one of the most ridiculous things I've read here if you're suggesting that Coe should be ranked below Ovett, Cram and Jakob at middle-distance on the basis of never running the 2000m.
Two 1500m Olympic golds (only man in history), two 800m silvers, 800m and 1000m world records that stood for over a decade (and are both probably the fastest times ever recorded without EPO), and the only man in history to hold the 800, 1000, 1500, mile WRs simultaneously, still only man to run under 1:42 and 3:30? The only man who comes close is Snell, and to be frank, he doesn't come close.