LETESENET GIDAY:. Debut Marathon Prediction Thread (WR or Not?)

Women whose 1)2 marathon PB is over 2 minutes slower then Gidey and yest more then one or two have debut 2:17 to 2:18 in recent years.

I used the Formula rounded her Half Marathon up to 1:03, I had heard Marathon at Elite Level = 2 x Half Marathon plus 5 - 8 and a Half Minutes, and Women tend to be on the Lower end probably because they are smaller on average so 1:03 x 2 plus ABOUT 7 Minutes - 2:13 would be a good but not great performance with her Ultimate Potential assuming everything is perfect is High 2::10 to low 2:11 IF she does not Improve her ability over a Half Marathon. So 2:12.53 sounds about right Good but not close to her Ultimate Potential.

I think people are discounting her too much. Yes it is far from gauranteed and probably less than 50%, just by the general luck and difficulty involved in a marathon, especially given it will be her debut.

But her 62:52 is just so out of this world that its not like the stars have to align perfectly. That half is worth a 2:11 high to 2:12 low, if we are talking equivalent performances. So under good conditions, and assuming she is as good at the marathon as the half, she has about 2 minutes to work with. That's 2 minutes to loose to marathon debut issues, weather, and just generally being better at the shorter stuff etc. There are so many men out there who have run a marthon between 2:12 to 2:14, but who have never broke 63 for the half. I think she can do it, in this race. Hope she will give it a go.

That wasn't when he was at his marathon best, which kind of makes my point that the HM is physiologically closer to the 10k than the marathon. Not trying to run down Gidey here, she's one of my favourite athletes, but expectations of a 2:12 are crazy.

I mean she’s likely d*ping so if she’s not kinda close to the WR, it’s a little embarrassing for her and her home country, no?

She's heavily doped and one of the best responders to the cheater clown shoes.

She'll pogo-bounce to a 2:13 and LetsRun doping apologists will talk about how great her form is or some other nonsense.

Completely wrong, try again. Such a simple thing to do 30 seconds of research before lying on the internet.

10,000m - 75.7 vdot (2:13:46 Marathon)

5,000m - 74.8 vdot (2:15:04 Marathon)

But Gidey just became world champ over 10,000 last month. I highly doubt that she can come close to her potential in the marathon this year, and get the WR in her debut.

The race is December 4th, a little over 4 months to prepare my solely for her debut. That's definitely enough time considering she's a 10000m/5000m elite runner.

I think a WR is entirely possible but maybe not in her first marathon. Even Paula Radcliffe took a couple of attempts. 2:15 seems entirely reasonable; Valencia is probably the equivalent of Berlin in terms of speed though so with good pacing could happen. I have an entry for Valencia and may go even if I decide not to run to see how it pans out.

14 days til Valencia Marathon. World Record? Yes or No, your time prediction?

Of course, she's an underdog to break the WR on her first try. It's a fast record, and so many things can go wrong. But Gidey is so, so far ahead of the rest of the world right now in long distances that she certainly has a chance. We're talking about an athlete nearly three minutes ahead of Paula Radcliffe's half marathon time.

Exactly. My final prediction is at least 2:13:35 WR. I would actually be shocked beyond belief if she is healthy and decent weather and she doesn't go out in 1:07;00 or faster for the first half.

Even the great man in Berlin couldn't run even splits after a sub 60 first half with a competitor still on his shoulder. Gidey would be well advised to get to the half in more like 67.45 and up the tempo for a 66.15 second half

Well, if you look at her 10,000m performance (1303 WA points) at 29:01 and her 62:52 half, 1281 points, you could argue (based on those numbers) that the longer the distance, the slower she runs. But on the other hand, she has only run one half-marathon and several 5000m and 10,000m races, which she has had good progression. Part of that is due to age. She is only 24.

Kipchoge's 2:01:09 equals 1312 points. I think his 2:01:39 was about 1303.

Women are approximately 9-10% slower than men across almost all distances.

2:12 is less than 9% slower than Kipchoge's 2:01:09.

Marathon debuts are very tough. I think that if she hits one out of the park in her debut, it will be 2:12:55 - 2:13:15-range.

If her training has gone impeccably and she runs tactically a very smart race and has excellent pacing/pacers, she will do it. The 2:12:55 to 2:13:15-range is clearly a new world record.

As we all know, weather is a big factor.

I'd hate to be that guy that gives a second time to fall back on, if I am wrong with the first one, but so much can happen in a race. She could DNF, DNS, go out at 2:12:00 pace and fade, go out at 2:14 pace, then hammer the final 5K.

Who knows.

But I will go with my 2:12:55 - 2:13:15-range (unless we hear that she hasn't been training optimally or the weather becomes an issue).

Interesting but remember the women's 1/2 marathon and marathon performance chart was revamped after her 15km WR. Both her 15km and 1/2 marathon WRs we're superior to her 10000m WR.

Regardless I'm going with my tried and true formula and my 2:13 prediction includes alot of cushion. If she is healthy, no major trouble during race, and decent weather the record is history.

When Kichoge ran this year he went out in sub 60 minutes which is probably ONE minute slower then his 1)2 marathon pb. Yet he still held on for 1;02 second half. Letesenet surely can run a 1:07 which is FOUR minutes of her 1/2

pb and pick up the pace slightly for the first women's sub 2:14

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Ilie Alexandru CORNESCHI | Profile | World Athletics

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Like the best Romanian marathoner still in activity. He can probably shave a minute in HM at this point, too, but your point still stands.

VIPAM maybe you don’t know too much about this sort of thing.

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahha.