Also hmm....? Real estate prices are one of the biggest contributors to inflation. It's good that insane YoY growth is slowing in real estate. Scarcity of places to live = bad for quality of live and a growing economy.
Real estate prices aren't part of the CPI. Rent prices are and they are still going way up. Mortgage payments will also continue to go up due to interest rates.
Real estate prices => rent. Slowing growth = still going up.
We don't have "more" working, the size of the labor force is still smaller than it was pre-pandemic. And years of "legendary" supply chain issues, with probably more yet to come.
Yes, boomers haven't figured out how to stop aging yet.
in 3rd quarter 2020, 28.6 million boomers retired, 314,286 each day.
Labor force is getting smaller because of large number retiring. When you retire, you aren't unemployed just retired.
First the unemployment numbers were 3.6% after the trump tax cuts and Biden is only seeing those numbers now because it’s the end of the tyrannical lockdowns that the democrats caused. Biden has almost doubled federal spending and is subsidizing a lot of these jobs, so they aren’t even permanent. Furthermore, printing even more money is only going to weaken the economy more. The spending levels are so extraordinary, it’s never been done in history. We are guinea pigs to a new theory called modern monetary theory that has no basis in economics, but is the only theory taught at woke liberal arts colleges. Anyone who has debts right now, job insecurity, is a renter, or health problems is going to be majorly screwed over in the next ten years.
I’m pretty fiscally conservative (I’m a registered republican, but didn’t vote for Trump… more of a Romney-Portman-Kasich type R). But I disagree with the way you stated that. Obama took the unemployment number from >10% to 4.7% when he left office, and the budget deficit was going down, year after year, in his second term. (Was about $500 billion annually; which is about 2.5% GDP).
Trump took the unemployment number from 4.7% to 3.6% while passing a fiscally reckless tax cut that reversed the budget restraint we could’ve had. Anyone can spend $1.5 trillion. That’s a pretty expensive way to lower unemployment by 1.3%.
The Biden administration doesn’t print money; technically the Fed does. But they’re raising rates and stopped their “bond purchases” (euphemism for printing money).
So many people complain about the bad economy but this is very strange. No one is acting like they are worried about finances. People are spending. going on expensive trips, and having a good time. College grads are finding work easy, people are leaving jobs for better paying jobs, businesses are expanding.
Yet so many complain about the bad economy. I don't see it. Life is good.
Aggregate economic growth or recession is not 100% correlated with unemployment rate. You should know unemployment rate is largely a phony stat. Labor participation rate is more useful than unemployment rate.
It is theoretically possible for U.S. economy to grow with 57.5% labor participation rate. It is theoretically possible for U.S. economy to fall into a severe recession with 65% labor participation rate.
Minnesota Vikings in 2012 had great running defense and great running offense. It did not matter. Vikings lost in first round. A couple of statistical facts do not tell the entire story.
I accept the much better definition of a recession (NOT just the NBER telling us so) which is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.
I stick to this definition no matter who is in the White House and no matter what other conditions exist.
Why is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth a better definition:
1) It is immediately known if we are in one. NBER can take MONTHS to declare if we were in a recession or not.
2) There is no subjectivity. We either are in one or we aren't.
3) There can't be an anomaly of an economic indicator that either keeps us out of a recession or puts us into one like is the case with the NBER.
What the NBER does is a deeper dive into how the economy is doing, but again, it's not that helpful to find out MONTHS later, AND we shouldn't decide that a "recession" means the economy is in a horrible state. Some recessions are shallow. Some, like this one, have a terrific unemployment rate.
A recession is simply two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. That's it.
Intelligent people disagree.
Perhaps, but they pick the worst, least helpful definition of the two.
How helpful is it to anyone if a recession is defined MONTHS later?
I accept the much better definition of a recession (NOT just the NBER telling us so) which is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.
I stick to this definition no matter who is in the White House and no matter what other conditions exist.
Why is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth a better definition:
1) It is immediately known if we are in one. NBER can take MONTHS to declare if we were in a recession or not.
2) There is no subjectivity. We either are in one or we aren't.
3) There can't be an anomaly of an economic indicator that either keeps us out of a recession or puts us into one like is the case with the NBER.
What the NBER does is a deeper dive into how the economy is doing, but again, it's not that helpful to find out MONTHS later, AND we shouldn't decide that a "recession" means the economy is in a horrible state. Some recessions are shallow. Some, like this one, have a terrific unemployment rate.
A recession is simply two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. That's it.
So, going by your metric, there was no recession in 2001.
CORRECT! I know that is hard to understand for some of you.
You have to get it out of your head that "recession" means a really bad period for the economy. Slow growth that would last for decades would be worse than a shallow recession. 2001 was WAY worse than the situation we are currently in. It had economic headwinds that we do not have right now, yet, by definition we are in a recession now and we weren't then. Yes, inflation is bad now, but that is already beginning to turn. We currently have more Americans working than ever before in our history...generating revenue. The recession we are in, while real, is a result of artificial growth from 2021 when we were coming out of the worst of the pandemic.
So many people complain about the bad economy but this is very strange. No one is acting like they are worried about finances. People are spending. going on expensive trips, and having a good time. College grads are finding work easy, people are leaving jobs for better paying jobs, businesses are expanding.
Yet so many complain about the bad economy. I don't see it. Life is good.
Inflation is bad, but that's really the only metric that is bad about this economy...well, the stock market is down in 2020 too, but 27% of stock market years are down years. People are spending a ton and SHOULD be, because jobs are plentiful. A job can be had at the drop of a hat today. Inflation will drop, and the market will rise again.
Decertify the election and put Trump back in. He'll restart energy, fix the military yet again, hold China accountable so they back off Taiwan, address the supply chain issues, cease this climate change waste of money, and figure a way to end the Russia Ukraine conflict. Not to mention put an end to the New World Order once and for all. We're in big trouble if we have to put up with 2 more years of this.
An imminent Recession seems unlikely as the job market stays red hot.
Discus.
Employment numbers are lagging indicators on the state of the economy. That means they trail the actual state of the economy. We’re already in a technical recession with two consecutive negative quarters of GDP. And there are lots of other numbers that indicate we are- consumer confidence, consumer spending, small business confidence, housing sales, housing starts, etc.
An imminent Recession seems unlikely as the job market stays red hot.
Discus.
And lowest employment rate as a percentage of total population since women were barefoot and pregnant in the kitchen. Hurray!
A rate is a percentage so your first sentence is gibberish. And the labor force participation rate is well below pre pandemic numbers. So technically incorrect.
So many people complain about the bad economy but this is very strange. No one is acting like they are worried about finances. People are spending. going on expensive trips, and having a good time. College grads are finding work easy, people are leaving jobs for better paying jobs, businesses are expanding.
Yet so many complain about the bad economy. I don't see it. Life is good.
They complain much more when their cult leader is not president. Complaining is a great hobby for most Americans. Meanwhile they don’t know what it means to actually have it hard.
So many people complain about the bad economy but this is very strange. No one is acting like they are worried about finances. People are spending. going on expensive trips, and having a good time. College grads are finding work easy, people are leaving jobs for better paying jobs, businesses are expanding.
Yet so many complain about the bad economy. I don't see it. Life is good.
They complain much more when their cult leader is not president. Complaining is a great hobby for most Americans. Meanwhile they don’t know what it means to actually have it hard.
You saved my post. Someone (mod) didn't like the positive tone of it and deleted it. You brought it back.
It's a bit hilarious how desperate people are for the economy to be bad. I mean sure, pray to Jesus to become poorer. That seems productive.
I’m a young professional and I’m sick of not being able to save the amount of money I want, or take a vacation. I work hard and am absolutely exhausted every day, I would like to enjoy some of my hard earned money every now and then. Wouldn’t say I’m desperate for things to get worse, maybe the opposite.
Obama’s stimulus was for temporary infrastructure jobs after a period of complete decimation of the middle class, especially manufacturing. Don’t forget NAFTA. Also during his tenure companies like Microsoft were laying off tens of thousands of American workers and hiring workers overseas. Companies moved abroad to avoid high taxes. I spent a lot of time in Ireland at that time, for work. I saw it firsthand.
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