Mantz confirms fall marathon

Not related to Mantz specifically, but what’s the explanation for a guy like Iliass Auoani, who was I think a solid low stick in XC, but not a title contender, running 2:08:34.

He’s be the 7th American of all-time!?

Are our expectations too low for our marathoners?

A few things I haven’t seen mentioned yet regarding Mantz’s debut:

- Pro: Mantz is already 25 or 26, with many years of running under his belt, so this isn’t similar to a 22 year old debuting. He has experience.

- Pro: Mantz has run a ton of mileage and hard 20 milers over the past 3 or 4 years. All of his logs are public. I believe he consistently runs over 110mpw on only six days running per week. Basically, he’s been marathon training the past few years already.

- Con: Mantz’s form (especially arm carriage) isn’t very efficient. He looks bouncy, and if his arms don’t relax I don’t see it translating well in the marathon. The half is a completely different animal as it is only a 1hr race, but that form could really sabotage him over the course of 2+ hrs.

Chicago, New York, or maybe the California International Marathon? CIM is hosting the 2022 USATF Marathon Road Championships.

He'll run 2:07-2:08 if he does Chicago, 2:09-2:10 if NYC. He's a high mileage guy. He's been cranking out 100+ miles for years. Moving up to the Marathon won't be a big jump for him.

At the Trials in LA. It was 80+ degrees. Don't be obtuse.

Mantz takes down Kipchoge (if he's running)in his debut at NYC.

His arm carriage is what would worry me too, especially it is out of balance (one of them crosses the front of his body while the other one doesn't). I would be afraid of the injuries associated, kind of like with Ritz

Runners sometimes do that if one foot is a bit larger than the other or if one leg is a bit longer.

Side note only:

He is racing Peachtree on Monday according to the press release of the elite field.

Has an elite marathoner ever run CIM? The course record is 2:10 and that’s with a net downhill that’s worth about 2 minutes.

I think Mantz is easily capable of a low 2:09 or hight 2:08 but a lot can happen in a marathon and weather plays a big role.

If I had to wager I would say 2:08:55 in good conditions. I think he has much more potential over time but I don’t think he’ll go sub 2:08 in his first 26.2 mile race.

CIM does not attract global elites nor has it drawn all the top American runners outside of when it was the USA Marathon Championship in ‘17 and 2018.

Ken Martin won CIM in 1984 in 2:11 and later finished second at the ‘89 New York Marathon in 2:09:38. He’s the strongest winner. i can think of.

CIM is a pretty fast course but not outrageously so and the weather can be bad because it is held in early December and it often rains, is windy and can be chilly. I chuckle when so many detractors post about it on Let’s run like it is somehow gonna turn a 2:15er into sub 2:10.

Mantz is great but has he put in the miles for the months (years) to go under 2:09 in a debut?

I've blogged about this on here before, but Mantz NEEDS to get the half marathon record before he loses his footspeed

Galen Rupp missed his chance and now he no longer has the legspeed to do it

Let's get back to this after the marathon, I will be right. He might go for 2:08 or whatever, but will fall short. Not due to lack of potential, but due to this being his first marathon and inexperience.

Show me a 2:08 American debut runner?

Ryan Hall was 2:08

Alberto Salazar and Alan Culpepper were 2:09

David Morris’s second marathon was also a 2:09

The HM isn’t even an Olympic distance so why does he need to get the AR? With his 26:33 and super shoes, Fisher could take the record down right now but it might be years before he runs one and Rupp never took the distance seriously during his prime.

Please link your blog.

This is actually why Ryan Hall was not good at marathon racing. He would race emotionally, always going out with the leaders, and almost always crashing and burning. Let's hope Mantz is one of the smart racers, who runs with heart and brains, and maximizes his potential.