Elise Cranny is back. 4:25.72 last 1600 - 15:49.15 FTW!!

Correct.

That 2021 Portland Track Festival win -- running away from Dani Jones on the last lap -- was very convincing evidence Elise is one of the US's top 1500 runners despite focusing elsewhere.

Now, yesterday's 4:25 closing 1600 in her 5k win showed Elise is still one of the top milers despite her recent fatigue issues and having to back off training for a few weeks.

Following Worlds, makes sense for her to get into a couple or more 1500/mile races in Europe.

If she cranks out a 3:58 or faster, Jerry may very well have her do the 1500-5k double at USAs/Worlds (should she qualify) in 2023 and/or Olympics in 2024, This would leave the 5k/10k double for Schweizer who, between the two, has always been the long distance specialist.

Watching the 5ks yesterday on the USA rebroadcast were my favorite moments from the meet -- despite already knowing the outcomes. Fascinating to see how close the top 3 women were - w/Emily actually nudging ahead of Karissa for a moment -- which was such a stark contrast to seeing how far ahead Grant was from everyone else at the end.

No intentions of hijacking this thread -- have been following Elise's running since her high school days and am so happy to see her progress to where she is after 4 1/2 up-and-down years at Stanford -- but here is a related thought to consider:

In a year or two, could we see Sage Hurta move up from the 800 and compete for a Worlds/Olympic spot in the 1500 along with Elise? Racing the 1500 against a 1:58 gal would pretty much ensure the race will be fast. Training in Ritz's strength/distance group, that could very well happen.

Not sure Cranny is a tactical 1500 master either. Schweizer was close to making the team, but it’s mostly because St. Pierre is a little short on fitness due to COVID and she did a ton of the work and isn’t fit enough to run that way right now. At her best she’s much closer to Sinclaire and Schweizer is further away.

Id agree Cranny’s ceiling is higher in the 5. Let’s just note that we have to see a Jerry athlete come close to sticking with the top group and be part of the kick at 5,000. This might be the year with an older Obiri and less proven Kenyans, but the 3 Ethiopians are chalk on PBs and credentials. No idea on Hassan. Would love to see the trend be bucked.

For birdbeard, I think you are also making a greater distinction between 1500 training and 5/10 training in the Jerry system than there is. He gives everyone high mileage and monster strength workouts. Is there really that much of a difference with how he’d coach Cranny if she ran the 15? Probably a little extra pacework. Judging by Sinclaire /Kate Grace’s experience, not much difference and Shelby is really the only world class Jerry athlete ever who thrived at the 15 over greater distance events in their time with him. Centro became a 13-flat guy who went from gold to what he is now. Grace/Sinclaire improved upon leaving at the 15, Cranny/Fisher/McGorty all went all the way up to the 10. Lopez, Vanessa Fraser etc. I think it’s just the route his training takes you.

Eh I wasn’t really thinking about Jerry’s training. Just talent for the event. I would be surprised if he trained all his athletes the same though, I am sure he makes some subtle changes but just hadn’t figured the 1500 out. Even subtle changes would be likely to land both Cranny and Schweizer on the team, but give them a good 1500 coach and it’s a no brainer in my view.

Fair I think they both have the talent with a better 1500 coach to be in the McGee area. I think Sinclaire and St. Pierre have the edge at the 15 from a talent standpoint. With Jerry can’t see it happening. That being said being 4 flat-4:02 women does compare favorably with Fisher or Mo Ahmed who are in the 3:34 high-3:35 range which feels like the slowest one could be (while being so quick at the 5) without being a sub-58 HM guy on the endurance end.

Jerry Schumacher’s specialty in college was the 1500m and you don’t even know how the BTC 1500m runners are trained. If you are going to claim he’s is bad at coaching the distance, you need to state how he’s training them as opposed to what a better coach, maybe you, would do.

Just typing something doesn’t make it true. I guess if he had ran 3:30 instead of 3:39, he would a 1500m coaching guru. What’s your experience in running the distance?

I may be confused as i only saw the last 2 k of the 5000, but why all the celebrating greatness in the women's 5000 when they ran close 16 min on the track? Was it a super tactical race early on?

It was kind of similar to Centro’s win in 2016 except the actual race started 1600m out and not 400m. The best runners in the race have 4:00 speed and fast PRs so they had no desire to set a good pace. For the others, no one wanted to step up and push the pace against runners a level up from them.

You really struggle with that ran/run thing. You come across like Justin Gatlin.

Huh? Who are the BTC 1500m runners you speak of? Josh Thompson? Amos? I have no issues of these guys, and Thompson is a competitive guy on the US scene. He also is 29 and is the exact same runner since he was in 2019, which is to say a 3:35 guy with a solid kick. You could say pretty much the same about Amos with him being a slightly less good version. He's having a rough 2022, so I assume he is not healthy. McGorty was a 3:36 guy in 2018 in regular spikes before joining BTC. He remains a 3:36 guy, but is way better at the 5,000/10,000 now. If you wanna talk Centro I mean with Jerry's training he became a 13-flat guy without ever having shown he had that sort of strength. But he maxed out at 3:31.7 and never broke 1:46 in the 800 again.

Did I say Jerry was bad at coaching the 1500? I think it's just not his specialty. And do you really think BTC training is some great mystery? Sinclaire Johnson, Kate Grace and other athletes have said the program is the program. 75-80mpw+, huge strength workouts being the focus and not speed/800m training entering much of the equation. The right athletes can thrive at everything including the 1500 with this, but I'd argue it positions them best for the 5/10.

But his specialty was the 1500m as a runner. Houlihan set the AR at 15 so was she the exception? Aren’t most of his runners 1500/500 types rather than 800/1500m? Guys like like Walker and Steve Scott put in a lot of mileage and longer intervals, but also did speed work. Centro ran 8:41 with a withering kick in HS so he was never an 800/1500m runner.

It's tough to measure Schumacher on the 1500 fairly. Who have been his best milers over the last cycle? Centrowitz, who arrived at BTC as the reigning Olympic champion. DeBues-Stafford who arrived a bit beaten up but nonetheless having already run a #20 all time mark. The only bona fide, world class 1500 athlete he coached from scratch was Houlihan who is hard to measure objectively because of her ban. Beyond that, recently he's had some athletes run the 15 well but not great (Thompson, Grace), and a pretty big disappointment (Sinclaire Johnson has no business coming DFL at Sound Running or in a US final).

And yes, agree with your earlier post that Cranny isn't a veteran tactician in the 1500, but I'm saying she would have been in the mix of that top 5, probably between 5th and 2nd.

I mean just because you’re good at something doesn’t mean you’ll coach it best or your success/method of getting it is transferable. Milton Mallard was an elite 200 guy who was OK at the 1/4, but now coaches Athing Mu and Brandon Miller.

Houlihan is murky to look at knowing what we know with her doping ban. Worth noting she was an 8/15 runner who went all the way to 3:54.9 and 5,000 excellence but her 800m PB barely moved. Interesting…

Centro was a balanced 15 guy good on both ends but it went in one direction with Jerry.

No doubt there’re different ways to skin a cat. I don’t think Jerry is great with 8/15 types. Thompson is probably his best result in that area (outside of Shelby) with Sinclaire a huge miss and Kate Grace looking like one last year. Balanced 15 runners become 15/5 guys, and 15/5 guys move to the 5 and 10. It’s just how his system goes.

I think this is all fair. GDS was a success but hard to evaluate too much as she ran well before and then after prior to this injury. I mean maybe we note Lopez had all the makings to be an elite 15 guy, McGorty ran a 3:53.9i mile in a time where that was a wow mark. Fisher had his 3:54 DMR carry and some nice 1500s. While these guys might not have been obvious slam-dunk 15 guys they had potential and were quickly moved up with slight/decent improvements along the way in 15 but their major breakthroughs at Jerry’s sweet spot the 5 and the 10.