d3 xc nationals predictions

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3 years ago 06/25/2022 11:34am EDT

re: sagecocks

sagecocks wrote:
Not surprised by how low MIT is on those 5k rankings -- they lost their number 1, Acquaviva, for track season (he wasn't on the roster). Probably did the classic drop out and try to make a startup move. MIT will probably regret that come xc, which is why I don't have them in my top 3. Still think they're better than those 5k rankings show due to their pack running though.
Denatale will be a huge addition for williams. Could see them winning natties with him.

Think Acquaviva will be back for xc, which makes MIT a solid #4, with a shot at beating JCU. Agree about DeNatale, PP is still probably the favorite, but adding him gives Williams a chance at the win.

3 years ago 06/25/2022 12:32pm EDT

re: D3 Lover

D3 Lover wrote:
I also wonder about holding Nationals in late November in Michigan (whose idea was that?). The weather could be fine, but it could also be 15 degrees with snow on the ground. I'm making a big assumption here, but I have to think that the PP boys (which are used to running in almost perfect temps every day) would be at a slight disadvantage to those from Ohio, NY, or Mass who are probably used to running in a bit more "variable" conditions. I may be completely off base, but does anyone else see the weather being a potential factor this year?

Yeah, I didn’t realize it was in Lansing. That’s surprising. I checked the trusty internet and they say temps range from 28-40 that time of year and precipitation is 20 percent. But if they hold the race in the morning, there is a very high chance the temps will be below freezing. I can’t comment on how that would affect PP, but it certainly would play a factor overall in the race prep and strategy.

3 years ago 06/26/2022 5:20pm EDT

re: D3 Lover

The Mideast regionals will be held at Saint Lawrence again, so Williams, Middlebury, RPI, etc. will have raced in an even colder climate the week before. Could be a real advantage vs. the warmer weather teams

3 years ago 06/26/2022 5:29pm EDT

re: Nescac Dad

Nescac Dad wrote:
D3 Lover wrote:
I also wonder about holding Nationals in late November in Michigan (whose idea was that?). The weather could be fine, but it could also be 15 degrees with snow on the ground. I'm making a big assumption here, but I have to think that the PP boys (which are used to running in almost perfect temps every day) would be at a slight disadvantage to those from Ohio, NY, or Mass who are probably used to running in a bit more "variable" conditions. I may be completely off base, but does anyone else see the weather being a potential factor this year?
Yeah, I didn’t realize it was in Lansing. That’s surprising. I checked the trusty internet and they say temps range from 28-40 that time of year and precipitation is 20 percent. But if they hold the race in the morning, there is a very high chance the temps will be below freezing. I can’t comment on how that would affect PP, but it certainly would play a factor overall in the race prep and strategy.

The NCAA cross country meet was held there from 1938-1964

3 years ago 06/26/2022 5:47pm EDT

re: ed.gee

ed.gee wrote:
The NCAA cross country meet was held there from 1938-1964

Thats impressive. Any data on what the weather was typically like during those 26 years? Temperature, snow, etc?

3 years ago 06/27/2022 3:35pm EDT

re: D3 Lover

trackandfieldnews.com

NCAA Cross Country Championships Men’s Historical Overview - Track & Field News

Sieg Lindstrom

(updated through 2020 meet) Year Date Edition Host Distance Course Weather/Notes # Teams # Finishers 1938 28-Nov 1 Michigan State... Read More

Open link

3 years ago 06/27/2022 5:45pm EDT

re: ed.gee

You sir, are amazing! Thats some impressive data gathering. I compiled the numbers and here is what I came up with over the 26 years.

Average- 35 degrees

Low- 12 Degrees

High- 52 Degrees

Wind- 14 mph ave (30% of the time it was over 20 mph)

Precipitation- 23% of the time and usually its light snow

In general, 35 degrees and 14 mph winds with a 25% chance of snow doesn't sound like ideal conditions, but everyone has to race in the same weather. Should make for an interesting event.

3 years ago 06/27/2022 7:05pm EDT

re: D3 Lover

Advantage Tyler Morris? Or maybe the Wisconsin Guys?

3 years ago 06/27/2022 8:32pm EDT

re: SlowFood

PP will return a strong group and it'll be interesting to see who settles into their 7. They're deep but you can only field 7. I'm expecting to see CMS compete well again too. SCIAC will have another big year this year I'm hoping. Maybe one day we'll have a national meet on the west so our conference doesn't have to travel so far.

3 years ago 06/28/2022 8:14am EDT

re: SlowFood

SlowFood wrote:
Advantage Tyler Morris? Or maybe the Wisconsin Guys?

I would tend to agree that it favors Morris who appears to perform well in wet and muddy conditions. He seems like a gutsy, grinder type racer who likes it when the courses are tougher. But I wouldn’t count out people like Philip or Lindgren who grew up racing in OH and PA. It can get pretty nasty in those parts of the country too. And if it snows? All bets are off.

3 years ago 06/28/2022 8:19am EDT

re: beersandmiles

beersandmiles wrote:
PP will return a strong group and it'll be interesting to see who settles into their 7. They're deep but you can only field 7. I'm expecting to see CMS compete well again too. SCIAC will have another big year this year I'm hoping. Maybe one day we'll have a national meet on the west so our conference doesn't have to travel so far.

I don’t think you’ll get much of an argument from the Northeast boys on a chance to head out to California to race. But unfortunately I don’t think you’re going to get your wish for a while considering 2023 is in Pennsylvania, 2024 is an Indiana, and 2025 is in South Carolina. It seems like the NCAA doesn’t like anything west of the Mississippi, at least when it pertains to D3.

3 years ago 06/28/2022 9:21am EDT

re: Nescac Dad

Nescac Dad wrote:
beersandmiles wrote:
PP will return a strong group and it'll be interesting to see who settles into their 7. They're deep but you can only field 7. I'm expecting to see CMS compete well again too. SCIAC will have another big year this year I'm hoping. Maybe one day we'll have a national meet on the west so our conference doesn't have to travel so far.
I don’t think you’ll get much of an argument from the Northeast boys on a chance to head out to California to race. But unfortunately I don’t think you’re going to get your wish for a while considering 2023 is in Pennsylvania, 2024 is an Indiana, and 2025 is in South Carolina. It seems like the NCAA doesn’t like anything west of the Mississippi, at least when it pertains to D3.

When I thought about it a little more, off the top of my head I don't see a course regularly run in the SCIAC that would be a great spot to host a national championship meet. The main three would be La Mirada, Prado, and Pomona. La Mirada would be entertaining but it's just a park and it would be impossible to have that much room for parking. Prado would maybe be an okay option but it's a bit out of the way and would need to prevent cars from driving through the cross over points which may be a hassle. Pomona doesn't have those issues but I always felt the course was a bit too narrow. Loved racing at Pomona but a massive nationals pack running through there would be wild.

Up north I only raced the Williamette course in 2010 and that funnel up the hill the first time was so bad that people came to a walk up the hill.

3 years ago 06/28/2022 10:04am EDT

re: beersandmiles

beersandmiles wrote:
PP will return a strong group and it'll be interesting to see who settles into their 7. They're deep but you can only field 7. I'm expecting to see CMS compete well again too. SCIAC will have another big year this year I'm hoping. Maybe one day we'll have a national meet on the west so our conference doesn't have to travel so far.

I like CMS, and they had a great year. But looking at their roster, they were pretty senior heavy. Besides Pick and Christenson, every one of their XC runners graduated, and looking at their remaining runner's 5k times, you had a few in the 14:47 range, but then it dropped to 15:00+. To be podium competitive this year, I think you will need all 5 runners under 14:45 and maybe even 14:40 for the 5k. I'd wager that PP will probably have 5 under 14:30 and Williams will be pretty close to that. That doesn't diminish Pick's potential to win the whole thing, I just think it may be hard for CMS to crack the top 5 unless their underclassmen make big jumps.

3 years ago 06/29/2022 11:12am EDT

re: SlowFood

The NoCo boys love brick-tit cold

3 years ago 06/29/2022 3:38pm EDT

re: Craig's Mullet

Craig's Mullet wrote:
I was curious so I took a look at the top 15 finishers from 2021 Nats, and counted the returning runners (did the best I could, obviously COVID will mess some up). Feel free to correct anything wrong with your team.
1. PP: 5 returners, lose 5+6
2. MIT: 5 returners, lose 2+7
3. Williams: 6 returners, only lose Aidan Ryan
4. John Carroll: 4 returners, lose 2+6+7
5. UW-Whitewater: 4 returners, lose 1+5+7
6. CMS: 3 returners, lose 2+4+5+6+7
7. WashU: 4 returners, lose 2+4+5
8. Geneseo: 5 returners, lose 3+6
9. Fartburg: 1 returner, lose everyone but 4 (barring fifth years, looks like everyone's a senior)
10. UW- La Crosse: 7 returners
11. UChicago: 3 returners, lose 1+2+4+5
12. Carnegie Mellon: 5 returners, lose 1+6
13. Middlebury: 7 returners
14. RPI: 5 returners, lose 2+4
15. North Central: 5 returners, lose 1+7 (DNF)
Based on this I'll give my predictions for the top 10
1. MIT- The perfection that is MIT's pack running and their cake walk through regionals could be a big help.
2. PP- Hard to win coming in as the clear favorites. Threepeat would be sick though. Would love to see them prove me wrong.
3. William- Likely the best 1-2, but a young team and dare I say a history of choking might be hard to overcome.
4. UW La Crosse- Returning 7 from a team already in the top 10 is pretty huge. Could see them sneaking into top 3.
5. WashU- Always find a way to put it together at Nationals. Stiles is a stud and they put together some real impressive performances in track.
6. John Carroll- Losing Jamie Dailey will be huge, but they still have the clear favorite for the individual title. I see them dropping a bit from 4th last year, but nothing significant.
7. Geneseo- Underperformed a bit last year, and seemed to lack depth on the distance side. We'll have to see how much their stellar 1-2 can help out.
8. Carnegie Mellon- Another team that underperformed last year. Always seem to run better at UAAs than Nats, but with the joke that is the Mid-Atlantic Region they might just be fresh enough to figure something out.
9. CMS- While they did have extreme depth in track, they lose a lot from their 2021 squad that finished. I hope this isn't me underestimating the Cali boys like many did last year, but it will be hard to improve on last years placing.
10. Middlebury- Kind of seemed like last year was best case scenario. Returning everyone is big, just couldn't bring myself to put them ahead of any of the top 9. Definitely a team I'll be rooting for next year.
Hm: U Chicago, Whitewater, anyone but Fartburg.

We only lose 3: Heinz, Joe, and Pinkowski. Dalton is staying for xc, Morgan is staying for the year, Alec is staying for at least XC, and Christopher is the one returner I assume you already included.

3 years ago 06/29/2022 4:49pm EDT

re: Fartburger

With the additional Wartburg returners, I'm moving them from #10 to #5.

Top 10 Men
1. Pomona-Pitzer
2. Williams
3. John Carroll
4. MIT
5. Wartburg
6. Wis.-LaCrosse
7. SUNY Geneseo
8. Washington U.
9. RPI
10. North Central (Ill.)

3 years ago 06/30/2022 12:57pm EDT

re: Fartburger

Fartburger wrote:
Craig's Mullet wrote:
I was curious so I took a look at the top 15 finishers from 2021 Nats, and counted the returning runners (did the best I could, obviously COVID will mess some up). Feel free to correct anything wrong with your team.
1. PP: 5 returners, lose 5+6
2. MIT: 5 returners, lose 2+7
3. Williams: 6 returners, only lose Aidan Ryan
4. John Carroll: 4 returners, lose 2+6+7
5. UW-Whitewater: 4 returners, lose 1+5+7
6. CMS: 3 returners, lose 2+4+5+6+7
7. WashU: 4 returners, lose 2+4+5
8. Geneseo: 5 returners, lose 3+6
9. Fartburg: 1 returner, lose everyone but 4 (barring fifth years, looks like everyone's a senior)
10. UW- La Crosse: 7 returners
11. UChicago: 3 returners, lose 1+2+4+5
12. Carnegie Mellon: 5 returners, lose 1+6
13. Middlebury: 7 returners
14. RPI: 5 returners, lose 2+4
15. North Central: 5 returners, lose 1+7 (DNF)
Based on this I'll give my predictions for the top 10
1. MIT- The perfection that is MIT's pack running and their cake walk through regionals could be a big help.
2. PP- Hard to win coming in as the clear favorites. Threepeat would be sick though. Would love to see them prove me wrong.
3. William- Likely the best 1-2, but a young team and dare I say a history of choking might be hard to overcome.
4. UW La Crosse- Returning 7 from a team already in the top 10 is pretty huge. Could see them sneaking into top 3.
5. WashU- Always find a way to put it together at Nationals. Stiles is a stud and they put together some real impressive performances in track.
6. John Carroll- Losing Jamie Dailey will be huge, but they still have the clear favorite for the individual title. I see them dropping a bit from 4th last year, but nothing significant.
7. Geneseo- Underperformed a bit last year, and seemed to lack depth on the distance side. We'll have to see how much their stellar 1-2 can help out.
8. Carnegie Mellon- Another team that underperformed last year. Always seem to run better at UAAs than Nats, but with the joke that is the Mid-Atlantic Region they might just be fresh enough to figure something out.
9. CMS- While they did have extreme depth in track, they lose a lot from their 2021 squad that finished. I hope this isn't me underestimating the Cali boys like many did last year, but it will be hard to improve on last years placing.
10. Middlebury- Kind of seemed like last year was best case scenario. Returning everyone is big, just couldn't bring myself to put them ahead of any of the top 9. Definitely a team I'll be rooting for next year.
Hm: U Chicago, Whitewater, anyone but Fartburg.
We only lose 3: Heinz, Joe, and Pinkowski. Dalton is staying for xc, Morgan is staying for the year, Alec is staying for at least XC, and Christopher is the one returner I assume you already included.

Thanks. With all of the COVID eligibilities (and differences in how TFRRS lists them) it's hard to accurately display returners/ graduates.

3 years ago 06/30/2022 1:08pm EDT

re: beersandmiles

If I'm not mistaken, to hold Nationals you need a course where the wide start lasts for at least 800 meters before it narrows. For regionals, that requirement is only 500 meters (or maybe 600?) so the pool of courses that can actually hold Nationals is much smaller than the regional pool. There should be some eligible courses on the West Coast given all the big races, but maybe the NCAA wants to save money on flights/minimize lost class time because most of the D3 schools are in the Midwest/East

3 years ago 06/30/2022 1:18pm EDT

re: SlowFood

SlowFood wrote:
If I'm not mistaken, to hold Nationals you need a course where the wide start lasts for at least 800 meters before it narrows. For regionals, that requirement is only 500 meters (or maybe 600?) so the pool of courses that can actually hold Nationals is much smaller than the regional pool. There should be some eligible courses on the West Coast given all the big races, but maybe the NCAA wants to save money on flights/minimize lost class time because most of the D3 schools are in the Midwest/East

Looks like D2 nationals is in Seattle for 2022 and Sacramento in 2024. And NAIA is in Washington State in 2023 as well. So there are courses.

3 years ago 06/30/2022 3:34pm EDT

re: D3 Lover

D3 Lover wrote:
SlowFood wrote:
but maybe the NCAA wants to save money on flights/minimize lost class time because most of the D3 schools are in the Midwest/East
Looks like D2 nationals is in Seattle for 2022 and Sacramento in 2024. And NAIA is in Washington State in 2023 as well. So there are courses.

Here, I bolded it for you

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