Even coming back from injury this is a big disappointment, especially being outkicked by a 10k/marathoner.
Adidas spent huge money on Drew Hunter and Hobbs Kessler out of high school and it looks like they both may end up being bad investments.
A lot of “runners” on here who have absolutely no idea what they are talking about, who understand nothing about professional sport, and who know nothing of periodization and peaking.
This is a 19 year old kid in April. Take a chill pill.
He needs to run 3:37.00 to qualify for USATF national championships. He only has 7 weeks to improve by more than 8 seconds. That's a lot in a 1500m, more than 2 seconds per lap.
As a professional runner with a big contract, your sponsor will be pissed if you don't even qualify for the national championships.
When I criticized him for running slow indoors, everyone said "it's only indoors you idiot, he's peaking for outdoors" and now when he runs slow in April you all have more excuses. What will you say when he's sitting at home watching the national championships on TV instead of being there racing? He's peaking for 2028?
Even coming back from injury this is a big disappointment, especially being outkicked by a 10k/marathoner.
Adidas spent huge money on Drew Hunter and Hobbs Kessler out of high school and it looks like they both may end up being bad investments.
A lot of “runners” on here who have absolutely no idea what they are talking about, who understand nothing about professional sport, and who know nothing of periodization and peaking.
This is a 19 year old kid in April. Take a chill pill.
Totally agree. I don't know if I have the exact time right but I seem to remember that Alan Webb ran 3:51 for the mile in April, which was the fastest anyone had ever run that early in the year in the year he ran 3:46. He was a far more mature runner at the time (was about 24 or 25 years old) than Kessler is now. Webb peaked a few weeks too early for worlds. Expecting Kessler to be running PRs this early in the year is retarded. Expecting him to be within 5 seconds of his PR might be more reasonable (still a bit of a stretch), but it seems he's coming back from injury and this was a rustbuster. Also should be remembered that he doesn't even have as much experience racing as a typical high school sophomore since he got a late start in running. He's bound to have some hiccups in the process. Writing him off based on this race is pretty dumb.
We had another thread on this race where we had people make predictions to win a free tshirt. In that thread, Nick Willis predicted something very close to what happened.
3:45.8 Time is completely irrelevant in this race. My guess is they go 2:03, and he feels good at the bell, but still struggles to get out of 4th gear on the final lap and only runs a 57. Patience, my friends.
I said on our SC bonus podcast that I didn't care about the time. Like with Jager's debut last week, all I wanted to see was Kessler blast the field over the final 300. That did not happen and it's hard not to view it as a little disappointing.
Flanagan is a long distance guy with a 3:57.75 pb (3:43.60). The third placer in this meet - Nick Miller (1:48.62 / 3:45.95 before today) - ran a pb to get third just 0.05 behind Kessler.
Willis is preaching patience which is important. Willis and Ron are being smart. They don't want this to be turn into Alan Webb's freshman year at Michigan 2.0 - just 21 years later. That year, expectations were super high for Webb. I remember talking to people close to Webb (my college roommate was embedded with him writing Sub-4) and they were like, "Alan's crazy, he's pissed he's not faster and thinks he's going to run 3:46 in the mile this year." Well crazy in the short term maybe. Tne 3:46 in the mile didn't happen then, but it did happen eventually.
I'm optimistic that Hobbs will be okay. Of course, I don't know his topside but the fact the he has been able to step back and not get caught up in everyone else's expectations, and maybe even his own, is a good sign. I enjoy seeing his rock climbing excursion pictures. I want him to be a great runner but I'm hoping that the fact that he has other loves to occasionally distract him, will help him to develop on a realistic trajectory. He's obviously proven already that he is a great talent. It's just a matter of mental and physical maturity.
A lot of “runners” on here who have absolutely no idea what they are talking about, who understand nothing about professional sport, and who know nothing of periodization and peaking.
This is a 19 year old kid in April. Take a chill pill.
He needs to run 3:37.00 to qualify for USATF national championships. He only has 7 weeks to improve by more than 8 seconds. That's a lot in a 1500m, more than 2 seconds per lap.
As a professional runner with a big contract, your sponsor will be pissed if you don't even qualify for the national championships.
When I criticized him for running slow indoors, everyone said "it's only indoors you idiot, he's peaking for outdoors" and now when he runs slow in April you all have more excuses. What will you say when he's sitting at home watching the national championships on TV instead of being there racing? He's peaking for 2028?
He’ll be just fine. Hard speed on the track has just started, and the MI weather has been less than cooperative.
He needs to run 3:37.00 to qualify for USATF national championships. He only has 7 weeks to improve by more than 8 seconds. That's a lot in a 1500m, more than 2 seconds per lap.
As a professional runner with a big contract, your sponsor will be pissed if you don't even qualify for the national championships.
When I criticized him for running slow indoors, everyone said "it's only indoors you idiot, he's peaking for outdoors" and now when he runs slow in April you all have more excuses. What will you say when he's sitting at home watching the national championships on TV instead of being there racing? He's peaking for 2028?
He’ll be just fine. Hard speed on the track has just started, and the MI weather has been less than cooperative.
Exactly my point. Now it's the weather's fault.
7 weeks out and only starting speed now? He's in trouble, he should have started earlier. He just got outkicked by a halfmarathoner with a 3:43 PB in the 1500. Flanagan's best 800 is only 1:57.
He was 8-9 seconds off his PR. That's a disappointment for most fans. While I agree that he shouldn't be peaking, he should still be improving. As stated, he's 19 and that alone should make him a better miler than last year. Plus almost a full year of pro training. Not many of us knew he was injured, and that so a 3:45 doesn't look so bad now. I'm sure he'll have no problem getting back to form and am rooting for him to make worlds as difficult as that will be.
He’ll be just fine. Hard speed on the track has just started, and the MI weather has been less than cooperative.
Exactly my point. Now it's the weather's fault.
7 weeks out and only starting speed now? He's in trouble, he should have started earlier. He just got outkicked by a halfmarathoner with a 3:43 PB in the 1500. Flanagan's best 800 is only 1:57.
Curious as to your PBs? Or the who you’ve coached?
I get that this is LetsRun, but my goodness it’s hilarious seeing keyboard hobby joggers claim this is a “disappointing” result when a coach/training partner AND OLYMPIC SILVER MEDALIST predicted exactly how the race would play out beforehand and emphasized the value of such a result.
“He’s in trouble” says the guy no doubt with more experience in coaching world class milers than Rob Warhurst.
A lot of “runners” on here who have absolutely no idea what they are talking about, who understand nothing about professional sport, and who know nothing of periodization and peaking.
This is a 19 year old kid in April. Take a chill pill.
He needs to run 3:37.00 to qualify for USATF national championships. He only has 7 weeks to improve by more than 8 seconds. That's a lot in a 1500m, more than 2 seconds per lap.
As a professional runner with a big contract, your sponsor will be pissed if you don't even qualify for the national championships.
When I criticized him for running slow indoors, everyone said "it's only indoors you idiot, he's peaking for outdoors" and now when he runs slow in April you all have more excuses. What will you say when he's sitting at home watching the national championships on TV instead of being there racing? He's peaking for 2028?
He isnt trying to get 7 sec faster than pb. He's just getting 7 sec of fitness he has had before small injury. That's a much faster process. Your example is kind of dumb.
Right now he is running like he should’ve gone in to the ncaa. More time to develop before having to race pro. Not sure why everyone was so excited for him to go pro out of high school.
Look, people are too far on the extremes on both side.
The Nothing to See Here Crowd: If he’s been injured and just coming back to health I’m not sure why you’d race him in Ohio. We saw the Tinmen all do a 4:07-4:08 mile in practice at altitude in January. This is objectively worse and there’s not a ton of time to get into a position where he realistically could make a US final, let alone contend for a spot. I
The Other Side: A bad patch doesn’t spell doom long-term. Even if he’s only getting to 3:37-3:39 form by Trials, there’s plenty of racing he can do later on. His talents not going anywhere. But I do think it is fine to second-guess some aspects of his training setup given the weather, training partners and so on.
Right now he is running like he should’ve gone in to the ncaa. More time to develop before having to race pro. Not sure why everyone was so excited for him to go pro out of high school.
His 1500 PB in high school was faster than the collegiate record, but this is setting up to be a bit of a lost/transitioning to pro year
7 weeks out and only starting speed now? He's in trouble, he should have started earlier. He just got outkicked by a halfmarathoner with a 3:43 PB in the 1500. Flanagan's best 800 is only 1:57.
Curious as to your PBs? Or the who you’ve coached?
I get that this is LetsRun, but my goodness it’s hilarious seeing keyboard hobby joggers claim this is a “disappointing” result when a coach/training partner AND OLYMPIC SILVER MEDALIST predicted exactly how the race would play out beforehand and emphasized the value of such a result.
“He’s in trouble” says the guy no doubt with more experience in coaching world class milers than Rob Warhurst.
Am I allowed to say Lebron James had a bad basketball game when he shoots 0-30 from the field? Or is Michael Jordan the only person qualified to say that?
Open your damn eyes. They even had a rabbit in the race and he only ran 3:45. What are the odds he runs 3:36.99 this year? That's what he needs just to make it to the national championships. Based on this result, I give him a 15% chance to run under 3:37 this year.
Warhurst is good but nobody is perfect. Why did he have an 18 year old with barely any training background do a hard Michigan workout with Mason Ferlic who is nearly 10 years older? Yes, Hobbs is talented and can get through it, but should he be doing it? He also had Hobbs do a hard triple at the state meet and then did another workout the next day to simulate rounds (the michigan workout was a few days after and he did high mileage in between). Credit Warhurst with the 3:34, but also credit Warhurst with Hobbs' BURNOUT and disappointment at the Olympic Trials.
He was 8-9 seconds off his PR. That's a disappointment for most fans. While I agree that he shouldn't be peaking, he should still be improving. As stated, he's 19 and that alone should make him a better miler than last year. Plus almost a full year of pro training. Not many of us knew he was injured, and that so a 3:45 doesn't look so bad now. I'm sure he'll have no problem getting back to form and am rooting for him to make worlds as difficult as that will be.
Did they run nice even splits that would be conducive to a PR? Were people disappointed when Centrowitz won the Olympics with a 3:50?
He lost by mere hundredths of a second. Could be he was just running for the win and kicked too early, got surprised and tagged right at the line. I guess seeing the race and the splits would help but all we have to go off is the finishing time.
If he has 3-4 3:45s in a row, I'd start to worry more.
A lot of “runners” on here who have absolutely no idea what they are talking about, who understand nothing about professional sport, and who know nothing of periodization and peaking.
This is a 19 year old kid in April. Take a chill pill.
He needs to run 3:37.00 to qualify for USATF national championships. He only has 7 weeks to improve by more than 8 seconds. That's a lot in a 1500m, more than 2 seconds per lap.
As a professional runner with a big contract, your sponsor will be pissed if you don't even qualify for the national championships.
When I criticized him for running slow indoors, everyone said "it's only indoors you idiot, he's peaking for outdoors" and now when he runs slow in April you all have more excuses. What will you say when he's sitting at home watching the national championships on TV instead of being there racing? He's peaking for 2028?
Right now he is running like he should’ve gone in to the ncaa. More time to develop before having to race pro. Not sure why everyone was so excited for him to go pro out of high school.
His 1500 PB in high school was faster than the collegiate record, but this is setting up to be a bit of a lost/transitioning to pro year
Yeah and everyone here seemed to think he would make the Olympics. I blame Adidas for not being able to figure out a NIL deal so he could at least run one year at the collegiate level.
A lot of “runners” on here who have absolutely no idea what they are talking about, who understand nothing about professional sport, and who know nothing of periodization and peaking.
This is a 19 year old kid in April. Take a chill pill.
He needs to run 3:37.00 to qualify for USATF national championships. He only has 7 weeks to improve by more than 8 seconds. That's a lot in a 1500m, more than 2 seconds per lap.
As a professional runner with a big contract, your sponsor will be pissed if you don't even qualify for the national championships.
When I criticized him for running slow indoors, everyone said "it's only indoors you idiot, he's peaking for outdoors" and now when he runs slow in April you all have more excuses. What will you say when he's sitting at home watching the national championships on TV instead of being there racing? He's peaking for 2028?
Agreed. I said the same thing and got all kinds of blow back.
He should have gone to NAU for at least 2 years for physical, emotional, & experiential growth, plus enjoyment and camaraderie. At that age it has to be fun and intrinsically rewarding (he’s only been running seriously for a few years). A paycheck as the primary motivator (contrary to what others will post as the most scared reason to skip college) , has the possibility to sour long term motivation and can promote early burnout. Especially when things aren’t going right. the VNTC are great guys. but his long term running career success in all ways would have been better served by a few years in college, until it was obvious he had outgrown it.
I wasn't happy he went pro because he had a great team at NAU to run for, and it would have been fun to see him run a cross country season, run at indoor nationals, and so on. But you should stick with a coach who gets you to 3:34 in high school. Give him time to get back in shape and sharp and who knows what he'll do at the U.S. champs. Last year, he did peak early because he wasn't expecting to be in contention at the Trials, and he probably was burned out by the state meet/Michigan workout--done too hard. Warhurst probably had nothing to do with the triple but he'll not let him burn out ahead of this year's trials.
