Can we analyze Scott Fauble’s improvement?

Burritos are overrated · 2022-04-18T13:40:13-04:00

Today was perfect conditions. How much time does that equal?add that time toNew Coach and a better training system. How much time does that equal? add those 2 numbers together and then add Those clunky Hoka shoes are out and he could finally run in these huge improving super shoes. How much time does that equal? Now add those THREE big numbers together. What did you come up with? His total improvement was SEVENTEEN seconds. That’s right SEVENTEEN seconds better today than his previous run with clunky Hoka shoes and a lousy coach on a perfect day. Thank you for playing.

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4 years ago 04/19/2022 9:24am EDT

re: Thisiswnativebeensaying

Thisiswnativebeensaying wrote:
We need folks like CJ who are as fit or fitter as Fauble and not afraid to go for it.

CJ certainly gave Americans something to be excited about for the first 21 miles of the Boston Marathon two years in a row, but honestly, how many times is that kind of strategy going to pay off? Sure, it worked out for Meb at the perfect time, but Meb was on a different level. I hope CJ does it again next year and the year after, but realistically, I don't see him ever placing top 5 without perfect conditions, a strong tailwind and a huuuuge lead.

4 years ago 04/19/2022 9:36am EDT

re: rojo

rojo wrote:
Not The Shoes wrote:
Ya I do not think it's in the 1.5-3 minute range. That's 4-8 seconds per mile, the new racing shoes are not making these elite runners go from running 4:59 pace (2:10:33 marathon) down to 4:51 pace (2:07:06 marathon) compared to the racing shoes of six years ago.
Says the guy who has never worn them. I'd be a large sum of money you haven't.
Please tell me this. Have you ever worn them? There is zero chance they are not worth at least a minute.
What people forget about today is they were running into a slight headwind. in 1986, dark sky shows there was a massive wind out of the south of 14-16 mph. Boston finishes about 8-9 miles more north than it starts. So that's called wind aided. So the guys today are much better than 1 minute than in 1986. remember, they clearly weren't going all out as the winner went sub-14 between 35k and 40k.
Eliud Kipchoge - PR in 6 marathons before the shoes - 2:04:00. PR now - 2:01:39. Now that it's a little misleading as his insoles were flapping out but still. The guy raced a ton of marathons.
Sara Hall PR before the shoes? 2:26:20? (I'm guessing. I"m not sure). PR now 2:20:32.
Shoes are worth a lot. Read the studies or buy a pair.

Rojo I like you but you need to admit it, everyone above the age of 40 or so has been waiting for years for an excuse like the shoes to make the achievements of the past seem more significant than the current. The truth is in another 30 years no one will even mention 90% of the current and former record holders. They'll become just a distant forgotten past too.

4 years ago 04/19/2022 9:48am EDT

re: $$$baby

He's clearly got the prickly pear vibe down. You can see it in his book and on all his social media. It gets a little old, but whatever, it's his personality, he can do with it what he wants. Some people find it amusing (I do, often, but it has its limits).

4 years ago 04/19/2022 10:35am EDT

re: Not The Shoes

Not The Shoes wrote:
People over play the shoes. This year was the deepest field they've ever had at Boston, 20 guys with sub 2:10 PRs and several with 2:05 or better PRs, and they get a nice weather day and the winning time is 2:06:52. Only a minute faster than some dude 36 years ago
Robert de Castella ran in 1986. If the shoes make you a minute faster, are you telling me that these African studs of today are slower equivalent than that guy?

It's the drugs and training. Shoes don't make that kind of difference.

4 years ago 04/19/2022 11:46am EDT

re: Stop all this shoe stuff

If I'm a shoe company guy, I'm scrambling to get CJ into my gear, and market the heck out of him.

"I want to be invincible," CJ says.

And milquetoast Scott is noted for an exactly even-paced marathon, then sounds like the dork at work you don't look at when you walk past. Wow. Exciting.

4 years ago 04/19/2022 11:53am EDT

re: $$$baby

$baby wrote:
The marketing department wrote:
Excellent point. But, I think you actually hit the nail on the head when you mentioned the burrito love. I mean this thread is now about Scott's personality (or lack thereof) and we have to say, "well he's a burrito connoisseur," "his thing is burritos," "a real burrito-loving man"... it's a piece of rolled up tortilla with beans in it. That's his personality thing? His "cool quirk?" There you go right there; that tells you all you need to know about the likelihood he will be making the big bucks in the near future.

His best bet might be to actually run with this. Talk to Chipotle or some place like that. Get a Fau-burrito flavor out there. Get some commercials about a healthy marathoner eating burritos. There, he gets paid. And he can run in any shoes he wants.

How come this actually isn't a thing in running? Being sponsored by other companies. It's the main thing in cycling and a few other euro sports. I'd have no problem seeing runners in singlets for food companies or health insurance or whatever.

4 years ago 04/19/2022 12:07pm EDT

re: This is Jim Kiler

This is Jim Kiler wrote:
And milquetoast Scott is noted for an exactly even-paced marathon, then sounds like the dork at work you don't look at when you walk past. Wow. Exciting.

When Desi would get dropped by lead pack but then split incredibly even races, LRC would lose their mind. And she never overly exciting interviews either, but people love her. Can't win around here.

4 years ago 04/19/2022 12:18pm EDT

re: bruce dentons gold medal

bruce dentons gold medal wrote:
This is Jim Kiler wrote:
And milquetoast Scott is noted for an exactly even-paced marathon, then sounds like the dork at work you don't look at when you walk past. Wow. Exciting.
When Desi would get dropped by lead pack but then split incredibly even races, LRC would lose their mind. And she never overly exciting interviews either, but people love her. Can't win around here.

Des hasn’t raced like that in 4 years. She now fades over the last 5k and when she fades from camera angle she is never seen again.
I told everyone to watch Des over the last 5k of the trials in Atlanta she is going to win. I have been horribly disappointed in the new Des.
Fauble looked like old Des.

4 years ago 04/19/2022 12:27pm EDT

re: rojo

rojo wrote:
Not The Shoes wrote:
Ya I do not think it's in the 1.5-3 minute range. That's 4-8 seconds per mile, the new racing shoes are not making these elite runners go from running 4:59 pace (2:10:33 marathon) down to 4:51 pace (2:07:06 marathon) compared to the racing shoes of six years ago.
Says the guy who has never worn them. I'd be a large sum of money you haven't.
Please tell me this. Have you ever worn them? There is zero chance they are not worth at least a minute.
What people forget about today is they were running into a slight headwind. in 1986, dark sky shows there was a massive wind out of the south of 14-16 mph. Boston finishes about 8-9 miles more north than it starts. So that's called wind aided. So the guys today are much better than 1 minute than in 1986. remember, they clearly weren't going all out as the winner went sub-14 between 35k and 40k.
Eliud Kipchoge - PR in 6 marathons before the shoes - 2:04:00. PR now - 2:01:39. Now that it's a little misleading as his insoles were flapping out but still. The guy raced a ton of marathons.
Sara Hall PR before the shoes? 2:26:20? (I'm guessing. I"m not sure). PR now 2:20:32.
Shoes are worth a lot. Read the studies or buy a pair.

Rojo, I could be wrong (I wasn't really around much in the '80s and before!), but wasn't the Boston Marathon course different back then? I had heard the course could have actually been a bit shorter several decades ago? I'm sure people on here know about this!

Given a few slight road re-routes and changes in measuring standards (Jones wheel etc), could the course have been like 25.9 miles "back in the day"?

4 years ago 04/19/2022 12:31pm EDT

re: rojo

rojo wrote:
Says the guy who has never worn them. I'd be a large sum of money you haven't.
Please tell me this. Have you ever worn them? There is zero chance they are not worth at least a minute.
What people forget about today is they were running into a slight headwind. in 1986, dark sky shows there was a massive wind out of the south of 14-16 mph. Boston finishes about 8-9 miles more north than it starts. So that's called wind aided. So the guys today are much better than 1 minute than in 1986. remember, they clearly weren't going all out as the winner went sub-14 between 35k and 40k.
Eliud Kipchoge - PR in 6 marathons before the shoes - 2:04:00. PR now - 2:01:39. Now that it's a little misleading as his insoles were flapping out but still. The guy raced a ton of marathons.
Sara Hall PR before the shoes? 2:26:20? (I'm guessing. I"m not sure). PR now 2:20:32.
Shoes are worth a lot. Read the studies or buy a pair.

80 seconds to 2 minutes for elite men as compared to Boost/previous gen racing shoes. I doubt you can find real evidence it's more besides tossing out random PR improvements.

4 years ago 04/19/2022 12:33pm EDT

re: S. Canaday

S. Canaday wrote:
rojo wrote:
Says the guy who has never worn them. I'd be a large sum of money you haven't.
Please tell me this. Have you ever worn them? There is zero chance they are not worth at least a minute.
What people forget about today is they were running into a slight headwind. in 1986, dark sky shows there was a massive wind out of the south of 14-16 mph. Boston finishes about 8-9 miles more north than it starts. So that's called wind aided. So the guys today are much better than 1 minute than in 1986. remember, they clearly weren't going all out as the winner went sub-14 between 35k and 40k.
Eliud Kipchoge - PR in 6 marathons before the shoes - 2:04:00. PR now - 2:01:39. Now that it's a little misleading as his insoles were flapping out but still. The guy raced a ton of marathons.
Sara Hall PR before the shoes? 2:26:20? (I'm guessing. I"m not sure). PR now 2:20:32.
Shoes are worth a lot. Read the studies or buy a pair.
Rojo, I could be wrong (I wasn't really around much in the '80s and before!), but wasn't the Boston Marathon course different back then? I had heard the course could have actually been a bit shorter several decades ago? I'm sure people on here know about this!
Given a few slight road re-routes and changes in measuring standards (Jones wheel etc), could the course have been like 25.9 miles "back in the day"?

Yep, you figured it out. Rodgers really ran 2:14.

4 years ago 04/19/2022 12:35pm EDT

re: Burritos are overrated

Burritos are overrated wrote:
My point is simple. Today was not a statistically better performance than he ran in 2018. Ii

If we're doing a statistical analysis then a sample size of 2 is not adequate.

A PR is a PR... too many factors in play to say that this performance was better than his previous PR but at the very least he's at least close to his current potential with at least a reasonable chance at future improvement.

4 years ago 04/19/2022 12:40pm EDT

re: This is Jim Kiler

Fauble could do another book. I enjoyed Inside a Marathon.

4 years ago 04/19/2022 1:56pm EDT

re: Probably yes

Probably yes wrote:
If we're doing a statistical analysis then a sample size of 2 is not adequate.
A PR is a PR... too many factors in play to say that this performance was better than his previous PR but at the very least he's at least close to his current potential with at least a reasonable chance at future improvement.

The field this year was stronger and deeper. They went out a minute faster after lollygagging a bit more in 2019. I think people have noted this year had good weather, but a slight to significant headwind. That is the reverse of 2019. Fauble finished in the same place (7th) as in 2019. I'd say today's was a better performance, but it helped that he was "smarter" this year relative to the pack and running conservatively picked off a bunch of guys who probably thought that the early pace was modest. In reality, between the headwind and the course it was a more aggressive start and a lot of the big pack paid the price.

4 years ago 04/19/2022 2:47pm EDT

re: rojo

rojo wrote:
Not The Shoes wrote:
Ya I do not think it's in the 1.5-3 minute range.
Says the guy who has never worn them.
I'd be a large sum of money you haven't
Please tell me this. Have you ever worn them? There is zero chance they are not worth at least
Shoes are worth a lot. Read the studies or buy a pair.

Fun fact: despite what he posted above, Rojo also never wore them or purchased them even while railing against them for nearly three years. Only recently did he get a pair, and only after being gifted them. He went for a walk in them and proclaimed them cheating.

That’s right, one of the sports leading journalists refused to try them out. And he is now lecturing you on them.

4 years ago 04/19/2022 3:04pm EDT

re: Msmnd c

Msmnd c wrote:
rojo wrote:
Says the guy who has never worn them.
I'd be a large sum of money you haven't
Please tell me this. Have you ever worn them? There is zero chance they are not worth at least
Shoes are worth a lot. Read the studies or buy a pair.
Fun fact: despite what he posted above, Rojo also never wore them or purchased them even while railing against them for nearly three years. Only recently did he get a pair, and only after being gifted them. He went for a walk in them and proclaimed them cheating.
That’s right, one of the sports leading journalists refused to try them out. And he is now lecturing you on them.

This isn't fun or factual

4 years ago 04/19/2022 6:22pm EDT

re: Not The Shoes

Don’t let rojo hear your say that, he’s a supershoe Truther.

the shoes help, but no way does it take off 8 seconds per mile or whatever people made up.

4 years ago 04/19/2022 6:32pm EDT

re: Msmnd c

Msmnd c wrote:
rojo wrote:
Says the guy who has never worn them.
I'd be a large sum of money you haven't
Please tell me this. Have you ever worn them? There is zero chance they are not worth at least
Shoes are worth a lot. Read the studies or buy a pair.
Fun fact: despite what he posted above, Rojo also never wore them or purchased them even while railing against them for nearly three years. Only recently did he get a pair, and only after being gifted them. He went for a walk in them and proclaimed them cheating.
That’s right, one of the sports leading journalists refused to try them out. And he is now lecturing you on them.

I mean it's just scientific fact that the shoes are going to make people faster. This isn't subjective...it's been proven over and over again in a lab and in races. Sure, a 4% improvement in Running Economy doesn't translate to a 4% improvement in time savings/speed....but it highly correlates to better efficiency. And efficiency/Running economy is the name of the game in 10km-Marathon racing. How much are carbon fiber plated shoes and super foam designs "worth"? Well that depends on one's running form (i.e. how much they "respond") and the exact design. But "the shoes" are certainly the biggest innovation (save from maybe certain PEDs) for major time savings and faster times across the board in the last several decades. To say otherwise would make one a simpleton.

4 years ago 04/19/2022 6:40pm EDT

re: itdepends

itdepends wrote:
$baby wrote:
Excellent point. But, I think you actually hit the nail on the head when you mentioned the burrito love. I mean this thread is now about Scott's personality (or lack thereof) and we have to say, "well he's a burrito connoisseur," "his thing is burritos," "a real burrito-loving man"... it's a piece of rolled up tortilla with beans in it. That's his personality thing? His "cool quirk?" There you go right there; that tells you all you need to know about the likelihood he will be making the big bucks in the near future.
His best bet might be to actually run with this. Talk to Chipotle or some place like that. Get a Fau-burrito flavor out there. Get some commercials about a healthy marathoner eating burritos. There, he gets paid. And he can run in any shoes he wants.
How come this actually isn't a thing in running? Being sponsored by other companies. It's the main thing in cycling and a few other euro sports. I'd have no problem seeing runners in singlets for food companies or health insurance or whatever.

Because few runners (dozens of message board dorks?) know who the eff Scott Fauble is, let alone any significant minority of burrito eaters. Oscar the Grouch is a puppet and is far more marketable than Fauble.

4 years ago 04/19/2022 11:15pm EDT

re: S. Canaday

S. Canaday wrote:
rojo wrote:
Says the guy who has never worn them. I'd be a large sum of money you haven't.
Please tell me this. Have you ever worn them? There is zero chance they are not worth at least a minute.
What people forget about today is they were running into a slight headwind. in 1986, dark sky shows there was a massive wind out of the south of 14-16 mph. Boston finishes about 8-9 miles more north than it starts. So that's called wind aided. So the guys today are much better than 1 minute than in 1986. remember, they clearly weren't going all out as the winner went sub-14 between 35k and 40k.
Eliud Kipchoge - PR in 6 marathons before the shoes - 2:04:00. PR now - 2:01:39. Now that it's a little misleading as his insoles were flapping out but still. The guy raced a ton of marathons.
Sara Hall PR before the shoes? 2:26:20? (I'm guessing. I"m not sure). PR now 2:20:32.
Shoes are worth a lot. Read the studies or buy a pair.
Rojo, I could be wrong (I wasn't really around much in the '80s and before!), but wasn't the Boston Marathon course different back then? I had heard the course could have actually been a bit shorter several decades ago? I'm sure people on here know about this!
Given a few slight road re-routes and changes in measuring standards (Jones wheel etc), could the course have been like 25.9 miles "back in the day"?

In 1956 Antti Viskari and Young Kelly went 1-2 at Boston in under 2:15. This got the BAA to measure the course. Originally it had been 26.2 miles but over the years changes in the roads between Hopkinton and Boston shortened it. I think it was 25.7 miles by 1956. They lengthened it to 26.2 again. The finish was in front of the Prudential Center. Finishers went into the Pru to shower and get their beef stew. But sometime in the 80's (I think) Prudential dropped sponsorship and the field was too big to shower and eat in one place even if Prudential was still sponsoring. The finish line was moved down Boylston Street to the front of the library. The starting line in Hopkinton was moved the corresponding distance closer to Boston. The course has been accurate since 1958.

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