If it isn’t the shoes then what would account for so many college kids dropping so much time? It isn’t Covid 6th years. Many of the guys running fast are young. It isn’t the training. I saw a garbage take on Twitter that “everybody is training like Jakob now” which is entirely untrue. Incredibly few college kids are running over 100 mpw and doing double threshold sessions. The training hasn’t changed. Even Bowerman is doing the same stuff that they have been doing the last several years. Covid allowed people to train but there were plenty of races in 2021. Were these guys not putting together training blocks before Covid? They were.
If you don’t believe that super spikes are making a difference, you’re wrong.
I think there’s a few other factors at play too…
- Extra year of eligibility from covid: older athletes/more athletes = better times
- The average indoor track is better than ever
- Covid Training Boost: opportunities taken away from you, makes it all that much sweeter when you have a chance again.
Highlighting this because I think it's spot on. Obviously super shoes matter. But not everybody is going to be a high responder & there are other factors at play. Top-50 times aren't as ridiculous -- you saw sub-4:01 a couple of times over the last decade. College athletics are older than ever. T&F is no exception. You have a lot of older runners in the NCAA system. The NCAA system also isn't always great for running fast because athletes typically over-race. Missing a lot of last year probably allowed a lot of athletes to enjoy more balanced training & not have to perform at 3 conference meets a year. The tracks have an impact -- clearly BU is fast BUT there's also something to be said for the group think mentality at fast meets held there. It's kind of how local elites flock to CIM to chase their OTQ together. The shoes + course help but then factor in deep fields, good weather, pacers, etc., & everything is there for fast running. That's what BU had this past weekend -- pacers & multiple heats shooting for fast times. Runners are going to the same races to run fast. You don't run your local meets anymore if you're a stud. You seek out the places with the best competition & hop on a plane. Feel like there has been a big shift in that department in the last decade or so.
Some schools that sent runners to Boston over the weekend: Texas, Utah State, Oklahoma State, Notre Dame, Eastern Kentucky, Eastern Michigan, Butler, Boise State, NC State, Florida State, & pretty much every local New England (+ mid Atlantic) school.
FWIW I'd rather a thread celebrating the fast times & talking about the races but the popular threads are the ones that debate shoe tech.
Shoe manufacturers are thrilled with the advent of super shoes. They bring up mean significantly but I suspect that won’t do too much at the high end of athletics. I believe the benefit of super shoes for elites will be less than EPO. Not so sure we will see all these smashed WRs
I'm not denying that spike tech is contributing to faster times, but one more factor to consider is how good these classes of athletes were even before spikes were introduced. The depth at 2019 NXN was unrivaled by a large margin over previous years and that was before the shoe tech was a factor.
Get rid of the seniors (who should have already graduated but get extra time from covid) and 16th time would currently be 3:57.04, two years ago before you had so many old NCAA athletes the 16th was 3:58.09... 8 years ago it was 3:59.12. Times have been trending faster for a long time and continue to do so. If the shoes make you 1.25 seconds faster in a mile then this year's runners are technically slower than two years ago wince the 16th fastest non senior who are the people that should still be competing is 1.08 seconds faster than two years ago.
The shoes probably technically make a difference, but it's not as big as you are assuming it to be. The amount of 5th/6th/7th year seniors in the NCAA is the bigger difference, they are themselves running faster than typical NCAA athletes due to their age, and then since they're in these races they are dragging everyone else along with them. It's tough to run 3:58 but when you're in a race with some 3:56 guys it's a little easier to do.
People also seem to care more about indoors now than 15+ years ago. A lot of top distance runners used to race maybe once or twice indoors and focus on outdoors, but now you've got the top athletes running all the time hitting big miles/3ks/5ks and stacking DMRs.
I agree super shoes produce faster times, but there is more going on here.
A lot of talented runners are taking advantage of their "free" covid eligibility years which will increase the number of 5th and 6th year seniors for the next few years. I think we are seeing some of that now where fast guys/gals who normally would have graduated are still in college running faster. It's a double wammy because not only are athletes in better shape from extra years of training, they also have super shoes that did not exist when they were freshman.
In addition to the elite athletes returning, there are also other athletes who will benefit from extra time and get faster. There are lots of runners who are knocking on the door being elite when they run out of eligibility, this extra time will benefit those athletes.
I think we will see a ton of older upper classmen and grad students dominating the college ranks for the next couple years. It makes me feel a little bit bad for the younger runners who will spend the first 2-3 years of their college careers racing against these super seniors, but they themselves will not reap the benefit of extra free eligibility. However, if I was in a position to extend my college career, run faster, and get part/all of grad school paid for in the process, that would be a no-brainer.
The claim that DI, DII, and DIII times are all much faster is not as clear as some think. First, there are lots of people competing that would have normally already graduated. Second, I see only about a second's difference. For D3, as I showed last year, there really isn't much evidence that the shoes have made a difference. In 2022, the top time for the mile is 3:56, but TFRRS shows Ryan's 3:59 high as the best qualifying time. Second is 4:08 and there are only seven under 4:10, worse than 2018-19. 50th is 4:16.68, about 1.4 seconds faster than 50th in 2019-20 but 2.5 seconds slower than 2018-19. Other than what Ryan did this year, the numbers are more or less like any year, maybe a second faster from 2nd to 50th. In 2019-20, 4:08 was the top time. Ryan also ran 4:08 as a junior, meaning that he would have been a senior last year and got an extra year to smash all these records. 50th was 4:17.99. In 2018-19, there were two 4:05s and five under 4:08 and ten under 4:09, so a much better year than 2019-20, and 50th was 4:14, two seconds faster than this year so far. The 3k is similar. This year, Ryan's listed at 7:59, then it's 8:13 for 2nd down to 8:32 for 50th. In 2019-20, top mark was 8:11, with Ryan at 8:14, and 50th was 8:33.93. In 2018-19, top mark was 8:14 and 50th was 8:29 (Ryan as a sophomore ran 8:15). Basically, all of Division Three's improvement is due to Aidan Ryan and his extra year.
This is spot on, ive said that shoes make about 1 second a difference over a mile, and maybe 1.5 in a 10k where you can save the legs more. Its frustrating watching people like Rojo spew bs that the shoes make 4 seconds a mile difference which is ludicrous. Instead of celebrating one of the best runs in American history, all people are talking about is how much slower it would have been with the shoes. You can add 5 seconds to his time and a 12:58 would still be astounding.
For those that think they make 4 seconds a mile difference, do you believe that Johnny Gregorek could have run a 3:45 indoor mile with these shoes on?
Well stated and much closer to reality from Coaches opinions I truly respect.
I think what people need to realize, is that in set up races and as 5th AND 6th year Seniors guys could be running 3:56 by now.
The descending order list is pretty deep and very very fast these days, Of the guys that have broken 3:57 including more than "way liberal Altitude conversions", which I never believe in, as some of these guys spend 10 months or more at Altitude and have for years now, so they are considered "Adjusted". I believe?
Of those under 3:57 flat ,12 of those 26 are "Seniors", if you do the work and look them up, I would guess without looking that 75% of them are 5th year at least.
Here is just one example, Yaguse..2 years ago he ran 3:55.x Indoors..nobody said boo...two years later he is a 5th Year Senior and has run 3:54.66? Is that outrageous improvement ? I think not.
I'd be willing to wager that even if you remove athletes utilizing their COVID 5th/6th year, you will see the fastest-ever NCAA qualifying times by 2+ seconds faster in the mile and 4+ seconds in the 3000. I think the data will suggest the shoes represent a minimum 1/2 second per 400. We'll see.
I'd be willing to wager that even if you remove athletes utilizing their COVID 5th/6th year, you will see the fastest-ever NCAA qualifying times by 2+ seconds faster in the mile and 4+ seconds in the 3000. I think the data will suggest the shoes represent a minimum 1/2 second per 400. We'll see.
I literally did this the other day. Qualifying times were 3:57 and 7:49, compared to usually 3:58 and 7:51 in years past. There have been years I took 3:57 before and in 2020 there were 13 under 7:50 but there was a bit of a drop off after that so 7:51 made it. It’s hardly any faster, less than a second in the mile and less than 3 in the 3k.
The claim that DI, DII, and DIII times are all much faster is not as clear as some think. First, there are lots of people competing that would have normally already graduated. Second, I see only about a second's difference. For D3, as I showed last year, there really isn't much evidence that the shoes have made a difference. In 2022, the top time for the mile is 3:56, but TFRRS shows Ryan's 3:59 high as the best qualifying time. Second is 4:08 and there are only seven under 4:10, worse than 2018-19. 50th is 4:16.68, about 1.4 seconds faster than 50th in 2019-20 but 2.5 seconds slower than 2018-19. Other than what Ryan did this year, the numbers are more or less like any year, maybe a second faster from 2nd to 50th. In 2019-20, 4:08 was the top time. Ryan also ran 4:08 as a junior, meaning that he would have been a senior last year and got an extra year to smash all these records. 50th was 4:17.99. In 2018-19, there were two 4:05s and five under 4:08 and ten under 4:09, so a much better year than 2019-20, and 50th was 4:14, two seconds faster than this year so far. The 3k is similar. This year, Ryan's listed at 7:59, then it's 8:13 for 2nd down to 8:32 for 50th. In 2019-20, top mark was 8:11, with Ryan at 8:14, and 50th was 8:33.93. In 2018-19, top mark was 8:14 and 50th was 8:29 (Ryan as a sophomore ran 8:15). Basically, all of Division Three's improvement is due to Aidan Ryan and his extra year.
A couple things. First 2018-2019 D3 national's were held on a banked track, so flat track times were converted to faster times, whereas in 2019-2020 and this year nationals is on a flat track, so banked times are converted to slower times. Thus 2018-2019 is not as fast as you make it out to be. Second, there are three weeks left to qualify, and so times currently listed will get faster. Third, even though you are correct about the 50th times being about the same, when you look at the 20th mark (the cut off for nationals) times are significantly faster in 3k (8:21 this year vs 8:27 in 2020) and 5k (14:35 vs 14:42) with, as I mentioned, 3 weeks left to qualify. So no, D3's improvement is not just Aidan Ryan.
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