but but wrote:
They all ran together at Michigan on Saturday.
I though they said they ran saturday for a tune up for Milrose?
but but wrote:
They all ran together at Michigan on Saturday.
I though they said they ran saturday for a tune up for Milrose?
Wise Old Man wrote:
Master of Lolly wrote:
Wesley Kiptoo ran 13:14 5000m 2 months ago - indoors. That's just 2 seconds slower than Cooper Teare last summer, but also 4 seconds faster than Cole Hockers PB.
He might not beat Beamish, Hocker and Teare in 3k, but he surely will lead 2nd tier in this race.
Hocker’s PB came 90 min after winning an epic 1500 and before his full blossoming as a world level talent before our eyes. Do you really think 13:18 represents Hocker’s 5K ability? If he fit, rested, and focused, he’s running << 13:10. Honestly, I’m pretty sure he’d beat Chelimo and Fisher if he cared to, but he shouldn’t because he’s even more competitive at the WC level in the 1500. He’s going to running 3:28 this summer for sure.
You're saying Hocker can beat Chelimo who placed 3rd at the Olympics 5k but he doesn't want to because he's even better at 1500m?
He better finish at least on the podium in Eugene.
John Wesley Harding wrote:
1. Cole Hocker 7:37.6
2. Cooper Teare 7:38.8
3. Geordie Beamish 7:39.1
4. Luis Grijalva 7:40.8
5. Nico Young 7:41.3
6. Conner Mantz 7:42.0
7. Wesley Kiptoo 7:44.5
8. Drew Hunter 7:45.7
9. James West 7:46.2
10. Morgan Beadlescomb 7:47.0
11. John Gay 7:48.4
12. Sam Parsons 7:49.6
13. Charles Hicks 7:50.0
You can't be serious putting Parsons over Hicks. I'd put Hicks closer to Kiptoo and Mantz honestly.
1. Hocker
2. Hunter
3. Beamish
4. Teare
The rest aren't going to be able to race with these guys at the end in a tight indoor 3k. ...For the longer distance pedigree guys in this race, their fitness and PRs are going to be secondary to their ability to handle the physicality of the positioning and jostling of the race early, and then the monster kicks later.
Mid d guys will dominate this race
....don't underestimate Drew Hunter here!
justnotrue wrote:
Wise Old Man wrote:
Hocker’s PB came 90 min after winning an epic 1500 and before his full blossoming as a world level talent before our eyes. Do you really think 13:18 represents Hocker’s 5K ability? If he fit, rested, and focused, he’s running << 13:10. Honestly, I’m pretty sure he’d beat Chelimo and Fisher if he cared to, but he shouldn’t because he’s even more competitive at the WC level in the 1500. He’s going to running 3:28 this summer for sure.
You're saying Hocker can beat Chelimo who placed 3rd at the Olympics 5k but he doesn't want to because he's even better at 1500m?
He better finish at least on the podium in Eugene.
Yeah that's silly. I'd say maybe Hocker could scalp Kincaid, maybe. Fisher and Chelimo, no way, unless the race is very tactical.
1-Drew Hunter
2-Sam Parsons
justnotrue wrote:
Wise Old Man wrote:
Hocker’s PB came 90 min after winning an epic 1500 and before his full blossoming as a world level talent before our eyes. Do you really think 13:18 represents Hocker’s 5K ability? If he fit, rested, and focused, he’s running << 13:10. Honestly, I’m pretty sure he’d beat Chelimo and Fisher if he cared to, but he shouldn’t because he’s even more competitive at the WC level in the 1500. He’s going to running 3:28 this summer for sure.
You're saying Hocker can beat Chelimo who placed 3rd at the Olympics 5k but he doesn't want to because he's even better at 1500m?
He better finish at least on the podium in Eugene.
Ok, I may have gotten over excited, but yes, I think Hocker has an excellent chance to podium and finish higher in the 1500 than Chelimo or Fisher will in the 5 or 10K in Eugene. I also think if Hocker chose to focus on the 5K he would make the US team. Hocker will have a bigger impact on the global stage in the 1500 than he would at the 5K and a bigger impact in the 1500 than any other American distance runner in the 1500 through the marathon. For the men he’s our best chance for global medals over the next 4-5 years with Fisher being a somewhat distant second in this regard.
rhimby wrote:
justnotrue wrote:
You're saying Hocker can beat Chelimo who placed 3rd at the Olympics 5k but he doesn't want to because he's even better at 1500m?
He better finish at least on the podium in Eugene.
Yeah that's silly. I'd say maybe Hocker could scalp Kincaid, maybe. Fisher and Chelimo, no way, unless the race is very tactical.
What I’m saying is that the gap between Hocker and Jakob or Tim is going to less than the gap between Fisher or Chelimo and Cheptegei, Kiplimo, Barega et al. I realize Chelimo just medaled, but I was looking to the future not the past. Obviously in Tokyo Chelimo out performed Hocker, but honestly, your not more exited about what Hocker will do over the next few years than Fisher or Chelimo or Klecker or Kincaid, etc? I’ll also stick to at least saying Hocker could make the 5K team if he cared to try. Maybe he wouldn’t beat Fisher or Chelimo yet, but I’m sure his career PB will end up sub 13 if he wants this.
Okay. West closing in 52 for third last probably doesn't make any sense the more I think about it. The further down the field you are, the less motivation you have to close quickly as the main pack is way ahead of you at this point. So although I think he can close in a 52, he will close in a 60. I'll give him 60.87.
Wise Old Man wrote:
rhimby wrote:
Yeah that's silly. I'd say maybe Hocker could scalp Kincaid, maybe. Fisher and Chelimo, no way, unless the race is very tactical.
What I’m saying is that the gap between Hocker and Jakob or Tim is going to less than the gap between Fisher or Chelimo and Cheptegei, Kiplimo, Barega et al. I realize Chelimo just medaled, but I was looking to the future not the past. Obviously in Tokyo Chelimo out performed Hocker, but honestly, your not more exited about what Hocker will do over the next few years than Fisher or Chelimo or Klecker or Kincaid, etc? I’ll also stick to at least saying Hocker could make the 5K team if he cared to try. Maybe he wouldn’t beat Fisher or Chelimo yet, but I’m sure his career PB will end up sub 13 if he wants this.
I thought you were talking about Hocker's 5k ability. Yeah I think comparatively Hocker has slightly better upside in the 1500 than Fisher does in the 5k.
rhimby wrote:
The whole thing. wrote:
Wesley Kiptoo 7:38.77
Geordie Beamish 7:41.01
Cooper Teare 7:41.09
Cole Hocker 7:41.86
Conner Mantz 7:45.47
Luis Grijalva 7:45.75
John Gay 7:46.16
Eric Jenkins 7:47.41
Morgan Beadlsecomb 7:47.58
Drew Hunter 7:47.68
Nico Young 7:49.14
James West 7:50.97
Sam Parsons 7:51.03
Charles Hicks 7:51.96
I think that Nico's 4:02 was more of an outlier than the new norm. I just can't see him running into the low 7:40s and challenging the United States collegiate record. Maybe it's cause I'm not American. It's probably that. Kiptoo is going to take it out hard, as there'd be no one to stop him but Mantz. Eventually Mantz tires, leaving Kiptoo to win the race.
Final two laps for all athletes:
Kiptoo 60.18
Beamish 56.34
Teare 54.99
Hocker 55.71
Mantz 59.72
Gay 57.69
Jenkins 57.41
Beadlescomb 59.90
Hunter 56.78
Young 60.87
West 52.71 (he rabbits a lot of the time, and has shown that he can handle a fast 3K on multiple occasions. Don't forget he has a 1:48 indoor 800 to his name, that's equivalent to about a 1:46 outdoors. So he's got speed and I think that if he's near the rear of the race he's gonna finish well)
Parsons 62.67
Hicks 59.46
Hmm allow me to critique. I think you're giving Kiptoo too much credit. He only has the 5th best 5k in the field, and I think it's unlikely that he has the wheels to beat most of these guys over the shorter 3k distance. He only ran a 4:02 mile (at sea level) a few days ago.
Also you think West is going to close in 52 for third last???
I’m genuinely cracking up thinking about West being 5.76 seconds behind second-to-last at 2600, on pace to run an 8:02, and then busting a 52.7 last 400.
Yeah, I was thinking that the 4:01 isn't legitimate. And I just have a good feeling about Kiptoo in this race, I know we've seen him fail before (outdoor NCAA champs) but this feels different. He's coming off of a fast 5K time in December (13:14), looked good in his 4:01 indoor mile, gets better as the distance gets longer, I mean it's like all the stars are aligning for him to win this race. And we haven't seen a 5K race in the last say, 6 months that doesn't show that he can hold on for the win in a field THIS good. And to the people saying Hocker will win it with no effort, shut up. Even if he does win it, which he might, it certainly will be quite a fight. And to the people saying I'm delusional for putting Nico ten seconds behind Kiptoo, Nico placed 5th in a stellar field last December. And if you look at the way he ran that race, he was further back and climbed up the field as the race went on. Do you really think he can climb up all the way to the top in a race of this calibre? And it's an 8 second PB for Nico at the same meet two years ago, I don't think that's an understatement. Just because he's a 'great American talent' it doesn't mean sh*t right now in THIS race. The only argument that I can agree with is the 4:02 altitude mile but as I stated previously, I see that as an outlier performance and not the new norm. And altitude conversions aren't the same for everyone. Nico lives in Northern Arizona as far as I know, so he's definitely used to it so that 3:54 conversion should be misleading.
It's funny you actually did the math to show just how braindead I was in this moment. Yeah, make fun of me all you want, I'm doing it to myself too.
Just because he outkicked Centro at the trials doesn't give him a God-tier kick. Geordie Beamish has arguably the best kick in the World. You cannot name an American, African, or European that realistically could out kick Beamish
Smart Decisions wrote:
Just because he outkicked Centro at the trials doesn't give him a God-tier kick. Geordie Beamish has arguably the best kick in the World. You cannot name an American, African, or European that realistically could out kick Beamish
Please back it up with some numbers, where and how fast has Beamish kicked?
The whole thing. wrote:
Yeah, I was thinking that the 4:01 isn't legitimate. And I just have a good feeling about Kiptoo in this race, I know we've seen him fail before (outdoor NCAA champs) but this feels different. He's coming off of a fast 5K time in December (13:14), looked good in his 4:01 indoor mile, gets better as the distance gets longer, I mean it's like all the stars are aligning for him to win this race. And we haven't seen a 5K race in the last say, 6 months that doesn't show that he can hold on for the win in a field THIS good. And to the people saying Hocker will win it with no effort, shut up. Even if he does win it, which he might, it certainly will be quite a fight. And to the people saying I'm delusional for putting Nico ten seconds behind Kiptoo, Nico placed 5th in a stellar field last December. And if you look at the way he ran that race, he was further back and climbed up the field as the race went on. Do you really think he can climb up all the way to the top in a race of this calibre? And it's an 8 second PB for Nico at the same meet two years ago, I don't think that's an understatement. Just because he's a 'great American talent' it doesn't mean sh*t right now in THIS race. The only argument that I can agree with is the 4:02 altitude mile but as I stated previously, I see that as an outlier performance and not the new norm. And altitude conversions aren't the same for everyone. Nico lives in Northern Arizona as far as I know, so he's definitely used to it so that 3:54 conversion should be misleading.
What? You realize Geordie Beamish beat him head-to-head in that 13:12-13:14 5k, right? And Beamish is much more of a miler than Kiptoo. You’re too high on Kiptoo.
Smart Decisions wrote:
Just because he outkicked Centro at the trials doesn't give him a God-tier kick. Geordie Beamish has arguably the best kick in the World. You cannot name an American, African, or European that realistically could out kick Beamish
Well, we know he can out kick a waving Engels. As for out kicking Hocker, I’ll believe it when I see it. Hocker doesn’t have a G-d like kick, but he does have an elite one every bit as fast as any middle distance runner alive. I’ve yet to see a race where he did not pick up spots in the last 200 relative to his competition regardless of their pedigrees.
Ollie Hoare just beat him in a close 5k and closed the last 200 in less than 0.5 seconds slower and a last 400 that was faster and he had already gapped Beamish on top of that. He's an Aussie not an American, African, or European but still, Beamish doesn't have an infallible kick.
https://www.lancertiming.com/results/winter22/BU1204/results_19.html#round_1
Wise Old Man wrote:
Smart Decisions wrote:
Just because he outkicked Centro at the trials doesn't give him a God-tier kick. Geordie Beamish has arguably the best kick in the World. You cannot name an American, African, or European that realistically could out kick Beamish
Well, we know he can out kick a waving Engels. As for out kicking Hocker, I’ll believe it when I see it. Hocker doesn’t have a G-d like kick, but he does have an elite one every bit as fast as any middle distance runner alive. I’ve yet to see a race where he did not pick up spots in the last 200 relative to his competition regardless of their pedigrees.
Beamish has an amazing kick, but Hocker has ridiculous video-game like speed in the last 200. I've honestly never seen anything like it.
I don’t think he’s quite at the fitness level of Chelimo and Fisher yet. No doubt I think if Hocker improves this year he flirts with sub 13 if he chooses to get in a fast 5k but the other two are safer bets at this point. Fisher is the stronger 5k runner in my opinion.
That said, this is Hocker’s race to lose. I’ll say around a 7:40-7:42 wins this weekend’s race.