Will Nico Young ever run a sub 13 5000m?

blobfish · 2021-12-25T02:04:58-05:00

With a 13:22 5000m at age 19, it seems the odds are in his favor to break 13 at some point in his career. He seems like a Ritz-level talent to me. Even if he isn't able to improve his kick to win national championships and yadda yadda yadda, I think he'll be able to improve his engine to time trial solid times in the 5000/10000. I'll put the odds of him breaking 13 at 60%.

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4 years ago 05/07/2022 12:53am EDT

re: raging clue

raging clue wrote:
Nico should be able to break 7:46 but he will smash 13:19 outdoors next spring. In fact I think he can scare 13:10 spring 2022. Breaking 13 is not a foregone conclusion but staying healthy, solid training, and racing international competition should help.
Grant Fisher will become the youngest American to break 13. So pumped for his development these last couple of years and his fifth place showing at the Olympics.

Pretty spot on with the prediction. Odds seem to be swinging towards Nico being the youngest person to break 13, maybe when he's 23, give or take a year. Really excited to see the upwards trajectory of US 5000m times. The current pros better watch out, they're starting to get spanked by the up-and-comers.

4 years ago 05/07/2022 2:09am EDT

re: spleenis

Youngest american you mean, don't forget Abreham Cherkos ran 12:54 at 16

4 years ago 05/07/2022 4:36am EDT

re: Jgt11

4 years ago 05/07/2022 11:38am EDT

re: Jgt11

Jgt11 wrote:
Youngest american you mean, don't forget Abreham Cherkos ran 12:54 at 16

Yeah

4 years ago 05/07/2022 12:57pm EDT

re: blue man

blue man wrote:
I think he is only a 4 flat miler which will really limit his 5k. 10k will be better.

Has run 3:37 and 13:11 already this spring. Definitely not “only a 4f flat miler” and his 5k doesn’t seem to be limited by that at the moment.

4 years ago 05/07/2022 2:28pm EDT

re: blobfish

Barring sickness and/or injury I see sub 13 happening by end of next year.

4 years ago 05/08/2022 12:43am EDT

re: blobfish

He's obviously going to keep dropping time and is surprisingly faster than expected in the 15/mile. ...But everyone around him is also and his younger former NP teammates keep breaking his old records and are in fact with 1:48 800 speed in HS, flat out faster.

A better question at this point isn't about his PRs and age based milestones, but instead, can Nico actually win races?? ...So far, post HS, he's only won two races and one of those was an NAU intra-squad meet. If Nico is supposed to be the best US distance runner of the future, it's time for him to start winning races.

4 years ago 05/08/2022 2:37am EDT

re: DouchebagsAnonymous

DouchebagsAnonymous wrote:
He's obviously going to keep dropping time and is surprisingly faster than expected in the 15/mile. ...But everyone around him is also and his younger former NP teammates keep breaking his old records and are in fact with 1:48 800 speed in HS, flat out faster.
A better question at this point isn't about his PRs and age based milestones, but instead, can Nico actually win races?? ...So far, post HS, he's only won two races and one of those was an NAU intra-squad meet. If Nico is supposed to be the best US distance runner of the future, it's time for him to start winning races.

Closing speed is going to be an issue.

4 years ago 05/08/2022 2:47am EDT

re: Manbearpig15

Manbearpig15 wrote:
DouchebagsAnonymous wrote:
He's obviously going to keep dropping time and is surprisingly faster than expected in the 15/mile. ...But everyone around him is also and his younger former NP teammates keep breaking his old records and are in fact with 1:48 800 speed in HS, flat out faster.
A better question at this point isn't about his PRs and age based milestones, but instead, can Nico actually win races?? ...So far, post HS, he's only won two races and one of those was an NAU intra-squad meet. If Nico is supposed to be the best US distance runner of the future, it's time for him to start winning races.
Closing speed is going to be an issue.

The same was said about Rupp as a sophmore. I trust Smith to develop him well.

4 years ago 05/08/2022 8:06am EDT

re: Jgt11

Jgt11 wrote:
Manbearpig15 wrote:
Closing speed is going to be an issue.
The same was said about Rupp as a sophmore. I trust Smith to develop him well.

Yes, but Rupp was winning races as a sophomore and in addition to the team titles in XC (same with Nico) was winning team titles in Indoor (not happening at NAU), and most notably won five individual NCAA championship titles along with numerous first place finishes at most meets he raced at throughout.

Nico is not winning races nor is he a regular favorite to win the races he enters.

....Nur is though!

4 years ago 05/08/2022 9:48am EDT

re: DouchebagsAnonymous

DouchebagsAnonymous wrote:
Jgt11 wrote:
The same was said about Rupp as a sophmore. I trust Smith to develop him well.
Yes, but Rupp was winning races as a sophomore and in addition to the team titles in XC (same with Nico) was winning team titles in Indoor (not happening at NAU), and most notably won five individual NCAA championship titles along with numerous first place finishes at most meets he raced at throughout.
Nico is not winning races nor is he a regular favorite to win the races he enters.
....Nur is though!

When did he lose a race where he had the fastest PR? He’s still only 19 and there are people that are currently better runners than he is. Within another year, that group will be reduced by half. If he reaches 13:00, he will beat a 13:10 guy.

4 years ago 05/08/2022 10:11am EDT

re: Jgt11

Jgt11 wrote:
Youngest american you mean, don't forget Abreham Cherkos ran 12:54 at 16

He didn’t leave room for improvement in college did he.

4 years ago 05/08/2022 1:44pm EDT

re: DouchebagsAnonymous

DouchebagsAnonymous wrote:
Jgt11 wrote:
The same was said about Rupp as a sophmore. I trust Smith to develop him well.
Yes, but Rupp was winning races as a sophomore and in addition to the team titles in XC (same with Nico) was winning team titles in Indoor (not happening at NAU), and most notably won five individual NCAA championship titles along with numerous first place finishes at most meets he raced at throughout.
Nico is not winning races nor is he a regular favorite to win the races he enters.
....Nur is though!

Was Galen running against 13:06 guys on his own team though?

More of a question than a retort, I didn't think the NCAA was this deep back then

2 years ago 03/22/2024 1:34pm EDT

re: Straight up FACTS

Straight up FACTS wrote:
hchvv wrote:
Who is the youngest American to break 13?
It will be Nico Young at 20-21

actual good prediction

2 years ago 03/22/2024 2:37pm EDT

re: Jgt11

Jgt11 wrote:
Manbearpig15 wrote:
Closing speed is going to be an issue.
The same was said about Rupp as a sophmore. I trust Smith to develop him well.

Nicely said.

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