if the newbury park trio all go under 8:30 in the 3200, will you finally agree they are better than ritz?

rhojo wrote:

SDSU Aztec wrote:

It's not different at all. If the NP guys run 13:44 on the track, it will indicate they are every bit as good as Ritz in HS XC.

so Rupp was better at high school XC than Ritz because he ran a faster track 5k? so Matt Withrow who beat Rupp at Footlocker in high school would be the XC GOAT?

Rupp was a significantly faster runner than Withrow and I doubt Winthrow could have run anywhere near 13:37. Either Rupp had a bad day or experienced tremendous improvement from XC to track that year.

HS XC doesn't include barriers and running through mud so how would Ritz have an advantage over the NP guys if they run as fast at 5000m? Posters have referenced RItz's win at FL as a senior, but he ran faster the year before on the same course and won by about 5 seconds.

Its tough. I think a lot of people are influenced by Tullyrunners giving Ritz the highest speedratings ever, but there are flaws in those. Because Ritz ran a 214 at footlocker his senior year does not mean he would have won the runninglane and run 13:30 which is what a 214 speed rating would have been, that's not how speed ratings work. I know Mr. Meylan has written many articles but I feel there is something that has changed, increased training knowledge, depth, running shoes or some combination that has led to fewer extremely high speed ratings since there isn't as much separation amongst runners.

Ritz supporters have been saying look at his 14:10, Riley Hough only ran 14:49 at the same course as a junior last year the #2 time there ever and 14:56 this year. These NP guys beat Hough by 4-7 seconds. They say look he destroyed Webb and Hall (we have hindsight to look back at their professional careers to make that seem more impressive).

I would still take Ritz over any other high school xc runner, maybe Chez who I feel gets overlooked probably because he's Kenyan.

I'll play devil's advocate though. Hough when he ran 14:49, Hobbs Kessler (Webbesque on the track) in a different section ran 14:51. Beating guys who go onto run incredible track times in the mile isn't indicative of an alltime great XC runner. Hall at the Cali State meet would run 14:50 at Woodward park these guys are running 20+ seconds faster than that which is how much Ritz beat Hall by at footlocker.

So who really knows, The Young twins for all we know could come back next year in XC and dominate and put this argument to rest.

SDSU Aztec wrote:

rhojo wrote:

so Rupp was better at high school XC than Ritz because he ran a faster track 5k? so Matt Withrow who beat Rupp at Footlocker in high school would be the XC GOAT?

Rupp was a significantly faster runner than Withrow and I doubt Winthrow could have run anywhere near 13:37. Either Rupp had a bad day or experienced tremendous improvement from XC to track that year.

HS XC doesn't include barriers and running through mud so how would Ritz have an advantage over the NP guys if they run as fast at 5000m? Posters have referenced RItz's win at FL as a senior, but he ran faster the year before on the same course and won by about 5 seconds.

This conversation started because the NP guys ran faster than the 14:10 Ritz ran as a senior at Michigan states the fastest XC "5k" time ever. Ritz ran 15:05 at states as a junior. Most people assume senior year is the peak.

Not Affiliated With Newbury Park wrote:

Better as High Schoolers. Nobody would claim that somebody who runs 8:30 for 2 miles is superior to somebody who runs 7:39 for 3000. People on this site jump back and forth too much without realizing how dumb it is. The NP guys are the best high school runners ever but some people try to compare them to the D3 runners by comparing their high school versions which is illogical. Some people say that NP guys aren't as good as Ritz or Hall due to their 5k and 1/2 marathon times which is also dumb. The comparison is of high school runners. If we did the same for girls, we would say that Tuohy is nowhere as good as Schweizer because Schweizer has run 8:25 and 14:26. HS Tuohy was better than HS Schweizer.

Lukas Verzibcas never lost an XC race. Not a local meet, not a regional meet, not a state meet, not a national meet. He also went sub 4 when it was rare to do so, and holds the 2 mile record. Without super shoes. And Ritz was a better runner yet.

calculass wrote:

Their mutual competition does elevate their level.

The shoes discount time comparisons by up to 10 seconds.

So true! 5 seconds per mile! Jakob ran 3:31 without the shoes at age 17 but can't break 3:33 now if we convert for the shoes!

ccjvccv wrote:

coach brosnan wrote:

So basically ritz was fast because his competitors were slow. Great argument boyo

Yes, the American record holders in the mile and HM were slow.

The entire point of the arguement was that his competitors were the fastest Americans of all time. And ritz was just THAT much faster

Using road and mid distance accomplishments of 27 year olds to determine how good a 17 year old is at cross country is so smart. Ryan Hall only ran 14:50 at Woodward park, but he eventually was an American record holder, so he probably could've gone 13:50 if he tried harder.

ligma wrote:

If the newbury park trio all go under 8:30 in the 3200 this spring, will you finally agree they are better than

Ritz? If not, why?

Maybe one of them goes under 8:25 or dare I say 8:20 in perfect conditions. Or am I just dreaming because we just witnessed such an incredible XC season? The talent is mouthwatering. I think they can go sub 8:30 at least.

Also, all 3 of them were under 4:10 last year if I remember correctly with Sahlman being like low 4:0x

I wouldn’t count out Lil S as he too was under 4:10 for mile this past spring. Also his coach stated this past track season that Lil S had tons of speed. Now he has tons of strength to go with that speed. He could be the sleeper.

What if 4 go sub 4?

guys this is so simple. You have to separate this question into four parts, whether they are better than Ritz, or whether they are faster, and whether you are talking about XC or Track. The NP boys, may or may not be faster than Ritz in track, only time will tell this spring. I could certainly see them going under some high school records and beating Ritz's times. If they do, they are unambiguously faster than Ritz. As to whether or not they are BETTER than Ritz - not even close, and at least not in cross country for sure. And not only are they not better than Ritz, they aren't even faster than him at xc either. The courses they are being compared on are wildly different. Put them both in a head to head and Ritz will win every time. So in XC they are for sure neither better, nor faster than Ritz. In track, I can definitely see them being faster. As for being better than him, it will probably be debatable because its hard to compare different eras. The two will have had different training, different competition, different shoes, different expectations even. The NP boys will have to go quite a bit under Ritz's PR's for me to consider them better at track, but that is still very possible.

I doubt Ritz could beat any of top 4 at the moment.

The shoe technology changes everything and anyone who tries to pretend differently doesn't know what they're talking about.

1. Ritz won Footlocker over 2 of the [future] best American distance runners of the 21st century. In high school cross country Ryan Hall's times are about 20-25 seconds slower than Sahlman's. Both Webb and Hall were milers in high school. Neither were that great at 5k at this age.

Ryan Hall is not in the top 10 best runners in CA history for cross country at this point. I suspect he would have been beaten by NP's 4th man at RL championships as Aaron Sahlman ran faster than Hall did all season.

After high school both Hall and Webb greatly improved at long distance. The talent was there, but they were both undertrained with regard to endurance at this stage in their careers.

Also, sometimes when you start to lose in a race you end up losing by a lot more. If you know that you are beat there is a bit of a let down. Perhaps if those three raced 10 times the average time separation would be closer to 10 seconds. You can't put too much stock in one race.

2. The XC times point to equal or greater marks of Sahlman vs. Ritz. Track would serve as an opportunity to add to that resume as a sort of proof. It is because of track's reliability that no serious person thinks that Ruben Reina is the greatest cross country runner in prep history. Reina never broke 9 minutes for two miles and would have been smashed by all four NP boys in an XC race.

3. Riley Hough beat one of Ritz's course record on another course this season. He may not have been running all out in the state meet. You can't put too much stock in a race that holds little importance for the athlete. Sometimes people just do the minimum to win.

4. You can't know that. But even if thats true that doesn't prove your point. Think of Lucas Verzbicas. Clearly in the conversation for GOAT prep XC and track distance runner and he hardly ran at all in college. That doesn't eliminate him from the conversation. Also, some people develop later and are terrible in high school, but become world class later in life. That doesn't make them a great high school runner.

5. 13:36 may be relatively not as good as 13:44 was then, but that's because collegians then were not as good (collectively) as collegians are now. Not all eras are created equal. The current era of collegians train harder and smarter than athletes in the past. You can't discount a runner because their entire generation is better. Otherwise you might as well argue that Paavo Nurmi (who would lose to the NP boys in every distance) was better than Ingerbritsen. Its a ridiculous claim.

I think World Junior XC is next year. If any of the 3 boys returning from NP can medal at that race, I might put them all up there with Ritz. Jakob as someone else said previously only got 12th the other year. Ritz got 3rd behind Bekele and we've got to keep in mind that was on an 8k course. If World Junior XC were held in March this year, does anyone think any of the NP top 4 would medal on an 8k course against the top juniors in the World right now? Let's be real. I just don't think that would happen. Not with Ethiopia and Uganda probably having some sub 13 5k track on their squad already. I know that sounds crazy but I think that's true just off the top of my head. Still, maybe NP is that good. But I'm not seeing it. Even if their track times are spectacular that still doesn't mean they could hang at World Junior XC any given year. It's a whole different ball game.

Hot take: NO Newbury Park athlete will ever become truly elite in this sport. They do too much training in high school and train too much like professionals at such an early age. As a result, they will enter collegiate competition having already reached 98% of their potential. They will not improve much in college and may be physically/mentally used up by age 24.

I'll Take This One... wrote:

Hot take: NO Newbury Park athlete will ever become truly elite in this sport. They do too much training in high school and train too much like professionals at such an early age. As a result, they will enter collegiate competition having already reached 98% of their potential. They will not improve much in college and may be physically/mentally used up by age 24.

Even if you are right and this is 100% correct, it doesn't take away from what they accomplished now. They are on Ritz's HS level [or very close to it]. What they do in the future has no impact on what they accomplished today.

rhojo wrote:

SDSU Aztec wrote:

It's not different at all. If the NP guys run 13:44 on the track, it will indicate they are every bit as good as Ritz in HS XC.

so Rupp was better at high school XC than Ritz because he ran a faster track 5k? so Matt Withrow who beat Rupp at Footlocker in high school would be the XC GOAT?

Rupp didn't have his best race at Footlocker. I would not say that Withrow is ahead of Rupp as high school XC runner, just as I wouldn't say Fout is ahead of Derrick or Fernandez in 2007. Sometimes athletes have good days and sometimes they have bad days.

Rupp's 5k time is phenomenal, but he has nothing equivalent on the XC course. So I would not credit him XC greatness for his track ability. That being said, if Rupp had a bit more XC achievements, I would say that his 5k backs up his XC marks and gives them more credibility as legit.

OozmaKappa wrote:

Ritz? I didnt know crackers could run.

How many crackers have brocken 10 in 100m?

When All 3 of them go under 12:56 in the 5000 I will say they are better than Ritz, we will know in 7-10 Years

I hope they do it, I hope all of them run faster than The Canadians (Ahmed) 12:47 Area Record, Heck I hope they run faster than Cheptegui's 12:35 though that is almost certainly asking for too much.

NewburyParkFan wrote:

Could this be the first time in history where we have multiple runners from the same team break 4 in the mile? I think they're running at that level for sure. Seems a bit more like a strength based program than speed but they have had some kicks in the past too. 3 from the same team sub 4 mile would rock the world.

And multiple brothers. Maybe 2 sets of them.