New York Marathon is in 77 days [11 weeks], Here are 44 Profiles, 4 every week.

15th to cross the line should be Benjamin Preisner, 25yo, who has a PB of 2.10.17 when 8th at the Marathon Project last year then 46th at the Olympics.

15th female might be Steph Bruce, PB of 2.27.47 when 6th in Chicago in 2019 then 6th again at the Olympic trial.

Aussiestatman wrote:

Aussiestatman wrote:

Newly crowned Olympic Champion Peres Jepchirchir will comfortably win here. Took 6.34 off her PB to win Valencia last December in 2.17.16. Had an amazing 2020 at the half winning Prague in 65.34 then the Worlds in Poland in 65.16.

Runner-up might be Ruti Aga with a PB of 2.18.34 when second in Berlin three years ago. Seventh in Valencia last December just five seconds outside 2.20. Third here in 2019 and earlier that year won Tokyo in 2.20.40

I would love to see Worknesh Degefa added to the start list to mix it up with these two.

Aussiestatman wrote:

15th to cross the line should be Benjamin Preisner, 25yo, who has a PB of 2.10.17 when 8th at the Marathon Project last year then 46th at the Olympics.

Then Shadrack Biwott, fifth here in 2016 in 2.12.01. 15th in Boston in 2019 in 2.13.11. Also 3rd and 4th in Boston in 2018 and 2017.

Aussiestatman wrote:

15th female might be Steph Bruce, PB of 2.27.47 when 6th in Chicago in 2019 then 6th again at the Olympic trial.

Next woman may be Haruka Yamaguchi with a PB of 2.26.35 when 7th in Osaka early last year just 5 weeks before her 10th in Tokyo in 2.30.31

Aussiestatman wrote:

Aussiestatman wrote:

So fourth becomes Abdi Nageeye. Holds the NR at 2.06.17 when fourth in Rotterdam in 2019.

It seemed odd at the end of the Olympic marathon that he coaxed Bashir Abdi past Lawrence Cherono into third. An Australian commentator called it, ‘doing a Dubler’.

Runners world did a nice story, named four or five chances: no mention of Kibiwott

Aussiestatman wrote:

Aussiestatman wrote:

15th to cross the line should be Benjamin Preisner, 25yo, who has a PB of 2.10.17 when 8th at the Marathon Project last year then 46th at the Olympics.

Then Shadrack Biwott, fifth here in 2016 in 2.12.01. 15th in Boston in 2019 in 2.13.11. Also 3rd and 4th in Boston in 2018 and 2017.

17th could be Nathan Martin: ninth at the Marathon Project in his PB of 2.11.05. Second in the Crim ten miles in 46.56 in 2019. The next week was also second in the US 20k Champs in 59.32.

Aussiestatman wrote:

Aussiestatman wrote:

15th female might be Steph Bruce, PB of 2.27.47 when 6th in Chicago in 2019 then 6th again at the Olympic trial.

Next woman may be Haruka Yamaguchi with a PB of 2.26.35 when 7th in Osaka early last year just 5 weeks before her 10th in Tokyo in 2.30.31

17th maybe Samantha Roecker (spelled Roeker on her IAAF profile). Finished one sec under 2.30 when 12th at the Marathon Project. Should run a half: PB of 78.09 needs an adjustment

18th to finish should be Thijs Nijhuis, PB of 2.10.57 when 30th in Seville last year. Was 70th at the Olympics. In May won a half in 62.46 in Furstenfeld, Austria. Chasing a 36yo NR: needing to chop another 1.14 to equal it.

18th woman might be 43yo Roberta Groner. 13th here 2 years ago, the same year Groner ran her PB when 5th in Rotterdam in 2.29.09

Aussiestatman wrote:

18th to finish should be Thijs Nijhuis, PB of 2.10.57 when 30th in Seville last year. Was 70th at the Olympics. In May won a half in 62.46 in Furstenfeld, Austria. Chasing a 36yo NR: needing to chop another 1.14 to equal it.

Next may be Patricio Castillo, 39th in Valencia last year in his PB of 2.11.24

Aussiestatman wrote:

18th woman might be 43yo Roberta Groner. 13th here 2 years ago, the same year Groner ran her PB when 5th in Rotterdam in 2.29.09

Even another year older could be next to cross the line: Krista Duchene. Third in Boston in 2018 but go back another 5 years to find her PB of 2.28.32 when 4th in Toronto. 12th in Berlin just two years ago in 2.32.27.

Aussiestatman wrote:

Aussiestatman wrote:

We are yet to see if Kenenisa Bekele has a successful event in Berlin. If then he decides to back up and go again here, he will start as favourite. His best is only two seconds short of the WR and is widely regarded as the long distance running GOAT. He wouldn't run the 35k trial that his country insisted he run to compete at the Olympics, so he didn't go.

Albert Korir may be second. Has a second here already on his resume, in 2019. Earlier that year won in Houston and Ottawa. The latter is his PB of 2.08.03

Cannot believe other pundits wrote him off