I appreciate his positive nature, but I disagree with Nick on all counts. Hocker is not in 329 shape (more like 3:30-31 low) and this final was not even close to the best 1500. 1984 and 2004 Oly finals come to mind. Hell even 2015 Monaco was better imo, even if Kiprop was doping at the time.
THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:
zxcvzxcv wrote:
On the down side, Hocker had plenty of 3:28-29 guys to follow in an incredibly well-paced race on a super fast track and he couldn't hang with them, although tactics were partly to blame (you have got to put yourself up among the top six early on if you want to break 3:30). On the up side, he had two heats including a 3:33 pr in his legs and it was hot and muggy. If he has not already lost shape from resting for a peak, he could conceivably run 3:29-30 with really good pacing in perfect conditions fresh, but I don't think 3:29 will happen until next year.
Him not being entered in Pre at the moment is not a great sign for the idea of him continuing to race this season. It's on his home track and is a perfect racing prospect. I'm dubious of Nick's claim here. On paper it makes sense ~ 2 races beforehand, very hot conditions etc. But that being said, he was fully peaked on a super-fast track, it was a well-paced race overall and he executed very well. Sub 3:31 I'll buy he could run in Monaco, but sub-3:30 is a bit too lofty to just assume.
He seemed to declare his season over on Instagram.
colehocker Couldn’t be happier to finish my season with a 6th place finish in the fastest 1500m race in Olympic history!
A season that I always envisioned would happen, I just didn’t know how soon. Putting my faith in God and controlling what I could control is what I practiced most this year. In doing so, I was able to reach places I’ve always dreamed of being. Thank you to every single person who has supported me in any way throughout this year, I am extremely grateful!
https://www.instagram.com/colehocker/?hl=enA 335 Guy wrote:
Armstronglivs wrote:
He's still 2 secs slower than Willis, who was a double Olympic medallist. No guarantees Hocker will get to that level.
We all know Hocker is a 3:35 guy. or is that a 3:33 guy? or a 3:31 guy?
He's a 3.25 guy here. I tend to think a runner is no faster than what they run. But American runners are always faster than their best. And 6th is even better than a medal.
And there are some judgments that Willis gets right:
I've believed that 2:49 has been waaayyy overlooked against the backdrop of his 3:50 mile.
https://twitter.com/nickwillis/status/1355915923010543619
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That was a great breakdown by Nick Willis for anyone who listened to the whole video.
He obviously has tons of experience in the event.
And notice that he re-watched the race several times, looking at different runners each time.
We all tend to focus either on the leaders or a certain runner.
It's like a Tarantino movie. You can't get it all the first time you watch it.
He explained all the wrong things Kipsang did and how he should have gotten Silver.
For his reason he thinks Hocker may have a 3:29 in him. His long season and this was at the end of three rounds.
I questioned it at first, too since that was an ideal race for him to run 3:29.
Willis really emphasized how the rounds can take a toll and it is not the ideal situation for fats times even with a good up front pace.
I will take his word on that. He has run plenty of championship rounds and he has run 3:29.
I want to see Nick Willis as a race commentator.
Aaleby wrote:
Trackfan55 wrote:
I also understand Jakob looked like he had more left in the tank but sometimes that’s just how it looks when you run your best, plus again the emotional high of winning olympics
If you were to believe the words of Jakob after the race; he had quite more left in the the tank.
Lagat said when he ran 3:26 it was the best he’d ever felt and when he ran the AR of 3:29 he felt awful. Lifetime bests & all time performances (which jakobs certainly was) are often the pinnacle of a career for a reason. Like how many times have you or a buddy PR’d or ran really well and instantly felt like you could go quicker? Happens all the time right!
I think the takeaway on Kipsang is accurate. Throw in him also going so hard in the semis round. This is a big talent. That being said will he even make future Kenyan teams? No guarantees. Might take 3:28 fitness with Etiang,Elijah Manangoi, Keter, Simotwo, Tim.
Also yes, Willis is right Tim really wanted/needed to lead. It's pretty evident, though maybe his uncertainty with his hamstring also discouraged him from relying on his kick. But he does have a long, loping stride that looks less ideal for running in the pack.
It often does happen that way with PRs. Most people always think they could have run faster after a great race or a big breakthrough. I know a few college coaches who recruit runners based on the level of their second best performance because that is usually the level they can perform at consistently.
With regards to Hocker, it follows that he could run faster in a one-off race with no taxing rounds right before. Also, the fact that he had such a long season and was likely peaking for the US trials and then having to re-focus for the Olympics plays into the idea that he could go faster. However, the race was set up perfectly for him to simply follow and then kick down as many people as possible. It seems like he is a "big moment performer" so the pressure and setting of the Olympics probably helped him too. Then there is the question of the track being slightly faster than other tracks where he may run going forward. Overall, its always easier to bet on an athlete to fail than to succeed when it comes to breaking a barrier like 3:30. So many things have to go right for it to happen. Only very well prepared and lucky athletes achieve their absolute potential during their careers. I think it is pretty safe to say that most runners PRs are a few seconds (or tenths or even hundredths in the short sprints) away from their absolute physiological peak. It's probably a safer bet to say that Hocker will never PR again than that he will go under 3:30 but I'm willing to take the other side of it. I think Hocker will end up with a sub 3:30 PR.
The same logic applies to Jakob breaking the WR (or even 3:28). He has now run in the 3:28s a couple of times. It's possible that he will never go faster but will stay at that level for years to come. Or maybe he will be the first under 3:26. I hope he breaks the WR but I will guess that his lifetime best ends up in the 3:26 high/3:27 low range.
Willis ran 1:45 in 2004. A full 11 years later he pr'd in the 1500m. Wonder what speed he possessed at his peak fitness. I know he took a 1500m race out in 1:49 earlier this year, so he's still got it.
Same goes for 5km- I remember him dropping a 13:20 in his (maybe) first attempt back in 2014. Would like to see him move up and give it a shot.
If Hocker is in "3.29 shape" he will have improved by a bigger margin in a year than Katir, who got his own special doping thread, as the "biggest doper of all time". But Hocker is American.
Some guys just have the 1500 as the perfect sweet spot. I suspect Nick could improve upon his 800 and 5,000 PBs marginally, but I don't think he could go faster than 1:44.5 or 13:10. He was just calibrated perfectly for the 1500 distance, and got the most out of himself.
Armstronglivs wrote:
If Hocker is in "3.29 shape" he will have improved by a bigger margin in a year than Katir, who got his own special doping thread, as the "biggest doper of all time". But Hocker is American.
Are all of your takes laced with negativity and hatred? You know this is a message board that is based in the US with its largest readership and contributors based right here in the good ol' USA. Most people will be less suspicious of those they know or actively root for and support. It has far more to do with homerism and absolutely nothing to do with nationality, race, color or any other stupid reason or descriptor that you and many others try and assert. It's just disgusting how some love to stir the pot of racial division constantly. People need to stop with all of the race baiting.
Last point. I think anyone that makes huge jumps in their performances and PBs are going to have some cloud of suspicion. There are just too many examples of busted dopers at this point to not have some doubts about everything these days, but many need to stop stating it as a matter of fact that someone is doping. Those of you that do that I can only assume you wouldn't want to be misjudged or falsely accused of anything. So why treat others with that level of disrespect?
Hocker is at quite a different age than Katir. He also missed outdoor track the prior year. Very similar to the athing mu argument.
I doubt anyone has ever run a perfect race, humans being human and all, so I doubt anyone has run the "shape" they're actually in. That said, it's hard to see Hocker going sub 3:30 without rest and another training cycle. Saying he ran numerous races in a short span going back to spring is true but the races also affect what "shape" he's in. Had he been better rested and peaked for a TT type race he might well have gone sub 3:30 but that's not where he was. Very impressive Olympics for Hocker IMO and it will be interesting to see if he can progress further next year.
Perch wrote:
I doubt anyone has ever run a perfect race, humans being human and all, so I doubt anyone has run the "shape" they're actually in. That said, it's hard to see Hocker going sub 3:30 without rest and another training cycle. Saying he ran numerous races in a short span going back to spring is true but the races also affect what "shape" he's in. Had he been better rested and peaked for a TT type race he might well have gone sub 3:30 but that's not where he was. Very impressive Olympics for Hocker IMO and it will be interesting to see if he can progress further next year.
Agreed. I do think someone only gets credited for what they have run and not for what you might be capable of doing in the future, but it sure is fun to speculate on possibilities. It does seem like Hocker still has some room for improvement. He just has to stay healthy and continue on this trajectory, because one never knows what the future holds so you only have the present. I would have thought Evan Jager would have broken 8:00, because it sure looked like he was in the "shape" to do it a few years ago, but.....
OozmaKappa wrote:
Gonna call cap on that one. Thats major american copium, Hocker is not in shape to run sub 3:30. His SB before the Olympics was 3:33 if you convert his mile from February. He spent less time training this year and more time racing than the rest of his competition, it's remarkable he managed to lower his PB to 3:31 in the final given all this. You could not have reasonably expected Hocker to do better than he did.
Its gonna take at least another training cycle before Hocker can go sub 3:30.
Calling bs on your logic, which I see often on LR. Not all elites race their best each time out, they often race just to win, qualify, or to accomplish something, and often not on fresh legs.
Just because Hocker only ran 3:33 prior to finals doesn’t mean that was all he was capable of at that time. Same for the final, do you think the top two really slugged it out over the entire distance? No. Jakob did pick it up the last 120 to win, but didn’t have to go deep all the way to the line because no one was right next to him. And NONE of them had fresh legs. Obviously Timothy can run faster, and has. The same for others in that final. But you exempt Hocker from any fatigue adjustment???
Willis knows what he’s talking about. Listen and learn.
This is just like when some folks didn't think Hocker was capable of better than 3:34 around the time of the trials. It was pretty obvious that he could go faster based on how the previous races played out, and given the rounds at the trials.
Here I think 3:29-mid/high is also reasonable with ideal conditions (no rounds, perfect weather, pacing, etc...)
I did call him being capable of 3:31 before the Olympics fwiw.
And yeah, I do think Jakob is in 3:26.point shape under ideal conditions!
1974 commonwealth games better. Two broke the world record and five others within three seconds. Also ran rounds and virtually all ran other events already. Check it out.
What people need to realize is that Nick is evaluating COLE'S CURRENT LEVEL. In other words, rewind two weeks and INSTEAD of running the Olympic rounds and finals, put him in a paced Diamond-League style race to evaluate his optimal fitness. 3:29 is very reasonable in such a situation. It DOES NOT mean that if he runs Prefontaine now, post-Olympics, he will run 3:29.
As far as the whole 3:29 topic goes, I will take my chances with the guy who has already been there (and without the magic shoes/track)