I live in Colo Springs, and just want to add that Soccer practice was rained out Wed and Thurs and Friday last week, so ideas that it was somehow super dry all week, or for weeks before PP Race weekend, are quite misleading.
I don't think the weather leading up to race weekend could have been be better... rained a lot Wed and Thurs, even rained a little Friday evening and some Friday night, then dry all weekend... that's basically what you want, so there's not a chance of canceling due to Snow or any other Precip up top. It's certainly what my 4 friends who came from out of state to do the Double wanted!
They moved the Races back a week this year. And the RD has said they're considering moving Race Weekend into September trying to get clearer skies. That IS possible, but Snow is also possible up high by then. In fact, despite it being very warm over Race weekend this year, chance of snow up top on Pikes Peak this week already, is tomorrow 40%, Friday 60%, and Saturday 50%. So you take your chances on Weather every year. Those waiting for 'better weather' leading into Race Weekend may get it next year, or it may be years from now. On the other hand, while it may seem unlikely that it'll be that hot again, it's just warmer, at least this year, to the extent that it's not been the historical average high ALL MONTH yet. In fact 8-13 degrees warmer than Ave is the norm right now.
I didn't go up this year yet, I'm doing long Bike Rides, and Ultras, with some still to come in the next couple/few weeks, but have done the Ascent and/or Marathon every year since 2005, generally going bottom to top 7-8 times a year. The course is no different to me than 14 years ago, except for erosion from the side down low in the W's that occured when the first made the Incline legal and had not yet put up fencing, so that folks could just bail out anywhere on the Incline and come South looking to go down Barr Trail. And that has since be fixed.
It has always been loose in spots just above tree-line, to the point I would not wear anything near 'racing flats' for exactly that reason. Those who do, will certainly see slippage in those areas, but it's not significantly worse over the 14 years I've been doing it.
That Dakota went downhill faster than anyone ever last year, is as good a testament to trail conditions as anything.
Folks who want to characterize MC's record as so good it's bogus, may be missing how he trained that year... and then didn't do the Marathon again for 5 years... but the way he approached it that year wasn't any different than some of his other course records, which stand to this day.
He didn't just have a good day, or good conditions that day he got the PPM course record, he trained like a madman for a over a year... after he got to the top in 2:05 the year before, and still got 2nd. After that 'loss' he did no races for the rest of that year. He got to where he knew every footstrike on that course. He trained similarly for his Leadville 100 CR, after he blew up the year before but stick-leg-walked-it-in determined to finish, then over the next year got to where he learned how many sips of water he would need to carry, and didn't carry any more than that, between the various aid stations. Which was just like when he went back a year later and won with CR at the California North Face 50, after getting 2nd to Uli S. the year before.
In the case of Pikes Peak he then didn't do the Marathon again for 5 years.
His San Juan Solstice win and course record was not a result of obsession year-over-year.. he was just 'training for Leadville' the first year, and decided the next year that it had been a bad idea to race that hard 50 as a lead-up to the 100.
And that CR has since been broken.
I think Walsmley and several-to-many others might have the raw talent to break the Leadville CR, but not if they don't get serious altitude for a good long time, and focus on that race, learn that course- and certainly not if they come do the Incline in a super-human time the day before!
In that leadville CR, Matt had no Aid Stations 'stops' longer than 30 seconds, and some he never broke stride.
In the case of Pikes Peak, I think it will take not just altitude and 'uphill training' somewhere else, but a lot more course-specific experience to get anywhere close to the record.
I hope folks who are 'disturbed' by the Record will come out and try the Pikes Peak Ascent, twice. The MOST fun is seeing if you can do ANY better year over year. It's VERY hard to improve at all (and BIG KUDOS to Sage!) because going any faster down low when it's tempting, means you'll simply suffer for it up top. Even dialing in Nutrition is a different animal as you burn more simple carbs at altitude and it's really hard to take anything in when you're gasping. Lol.
Anyone 'extrapolating times' for the way up from the Pace Calculator, better always factor in, each mile higher is simply harder to maintain any kind of pace, due to accumulated exhaustion from going almost nothing but 15% uphill for almost 8,000ft the whole half marathon, (there are a few downhills so the trail Ave is 11% overall, but including those downhills the res of the trail is mostly 15%!) let alone the additional altitude as you climb, the combination of which makes it exponentially harder in the last few miles. That Calculator is specifically designed for someone WITH massive Altitude Acclimation, and you'll simply slow down relevant to it, otherwise. Marc Lauenstein went from 10th to 3rd passing 7 of today's greatest Trial Runners in the last 5k to the Summit! He didn't slow down as much as everyone else, which is basically all that is required.
I've see over and over for years, folks posting how they were fine until 9.5-10.5 miles, then the ataxia, and dizzyness, and the sense that the Mtn is trying to Kill you overcome whatever 'Plan' you had, down low. At 12,500ft and up, and it's still a very longs ways up, on rocky-nasty 'trail' you're really just working with 'The Will To Live'.
I've had 10-12 friends come do the races over the years. Several of them have been excellent runners, who did the treadmill work, and were in the best shape of their lives, and placed in their age group, or were top 10 overall, despite being flatlanders, but one of them had won the largest 10K in their state, and got to A-Frame in 1:30 and then blew up, and it took an hour a mile the rest of the way and they never came back. Sometimes being a great runner, or in great shape, doesn't mean anything regarding Altitude.
Would love for anyone with a desire to see what it's really about, to come on out! There's probably still some very good, clear-sky weekends still to come into September this year, even!
See you on the Mtn!