I’m pretty sure this is the first time in Jeff Howard’s career that the Rocky boys won’t be clearly the best or second best team heading into the next year.
I’m doing a PhD in which I consistently use stats to measure things that are messy. TLDR: the method bases speed ratings on how you finish compared to the field and how competitive the field is. But knowing the latter is tricky and involves guessing. Maybe you can see this if teams from certain states consistently over perform or underperform compared to their other speed ratings at NXR and nxn
from what I understand, speed ratings basically come from where a runner finishes compared to the others in the race, especially mid pack. Depending on how competitive a race is, you’d expect the runners as a whole to either be consistently great, good, or mediocre. For example, in NXR races you expected a clump in the 170s/180s at the top with the majority in the 150s/160s. Bill fits the times of a race so speed ratings align with what you would expect given the level of competition.
He also makes adjustments, such as comparing runners to their known speed ratings from the past and knowing how times generally correspond to speed ratings on particular courses.
Knowing how “competitive” a field is tricky. He is very methodical in trying to get it right through various adjustments. However, there is subjectivity and guessing involved. If the runners all race each other (like in New York) eventually they are very accurate. I just think it’s really tricky to compare across regions. How do you know how “competitive” a state is? And if the guesses are off, then one state might have a lot of runners that deserve higher speed ratings but are consistently underrated.
bill is on here sometimes, maybe he can chime in. I may have got some things wrong or not be communicating them clearly.
I’m pretty sure this is the first time in Jeff Howard’s career that the Rocky boys won’t be clearly the best or second best team heading into the next year.
They might not even be top 4 in Idaho next year.
Sorry- best or second best team in Idaho
I think this is a silly take. Jeff Howard is a good enough coach that they will rise up.
They might not be top 5 in the region as they have been (sorry Rocky fanboys), but going into 2023, people said that they weren't going to be very good, and they were. Going into this year, people said they might not even podium at Idaho state meet, but they did, and were better than 2023.
Rocky has a ton of kids participate, lives in a wealthy area, has competent coaches, and most importantly, their kids seem to develop more and more the older they get. I.E the juniors becoming seniors tend to improve more than the sophomores becoming juniors.
They also won the freshman race at Bob Firman, and had 9 Freshman or Sophomores (now one grade older this year) who broke 5 for the mile last track season.
I think that their finishes of 1st*, 3rd, 4th, 3rd, reflect well on the longevity of the program in the NW. They'll take maybe 5th or 6th at NXR NW in 2025, then bounce back to swing for the podium again.
I think this is a silly take. Jeff Howard is a good enough coach that they will rise up.
They might not be top 5 in the region as they have been (sorry Rocky fanboys), but going into 2023, people said that they weren't going to be very good, and they were. Going into this year, people said they might not even podium at Idaho state meet, but they did, and were better than 2023.
Rocky has a ton of kids participate, lives in a wealthy area, has competent coaches, and most importantly, their kids seem to develop more and more the older they get. I.E the juniors becoming seniors tend to improve more than the sophomores becoming juniors.
They also won the freshman race at Bob Firman, and had 9 Freshman or Sophomores (now one grade older this year) who broke 5 for the mile last track season.
I think that their finishes of 1st*, 3rd, 4th, 3rd, reflect well on the longevity of the program in the NW. They'll take maybe 5th or 6th at NXR NW in 2025, then bounce back to swing for the podium again.
Yeah Rocky’s sophomore class looks solid
They may be down next year but better in 2026. They will have to go through Crater in 2026 to make NXN though. CDA will be a powerhouse that year
I think this is a silly take. Jeff Howard is a good enough coach that they will rise up.
They might not be top 5 in the region as they have been (sorry Rocky fanboys), but going into 2023, people said that they weren't going to be very good, and they were. Going into this year, people said they might not even podium at Idaho state meet, but they did, and were better than 2023.
Rocky has a ton of kids participate, lives in a wealthy area, has competent coaches, and most importantly, their kids seem to develop more and more the older they get. I.E the juniors becoming seniors tend to improve more than the sophomores becoming juniors.
They also won the freshman race at Bob Firman, and had 9 Freshman or Sophomores (now one grade older this year) who broke 5 for the mile last track season.
I think that their finishes of 1st*, 3rd, 4th, 3rd, reflect well on the longevity of the program in the NW. They'll take maybe 5th or 6th at NXR NW in 2025, then bounce back to swing for the podium again.
Yeah Rocky’s sophomore class looks solid
They may be down next year but better in 2026. They will have to go through Crater in 2026 to make NXN though. CDA will be a powerhouse that year
Which kid will be their low stick after Tuft graduates? Their current sophomore class doesn’t look to have that. Their top sophomore was only the 22nd fastest freshman or sophomore at the state meet. Their low stick moving forward for each year has been evident in their sophomore year, if not sooner.
There isn’t a single serious person who actually thought they wouldn’t podium at the state meet last year. They had too much with Lucas and Tuft with no programs outside of CDA, Boise and Mountain View returning enough to dethrone them.
It does look a bit more realistic with them returning 15:43, 15:59, 16:39, 17:06, 17:19, 17:19, and 17:25 on the Firman course. They were returning 15:28, 16:00, 16:36, 16:38, 16:58, 17:21, 17:32 last year and that’s with Goggins NOT counted. The 15:43 and 15:59 are graduating out after this 2025. Their top 5 returning average is 4th best heading into next year because Skyline is actually slightly faster out of a lower classification. Boise, Mountain View and Highland are all less than 10 seconds back on average time.
It’s not a silly take. It’s the correct take that Rocky is less loaded, they don’t look to have a low stick after this year, and the rest of Idaho is getting better.
They may be down next year but better in 2026. They will have to go through Crater in 2026 to make NXN though. CDA will be a powerhouse that year
Which kid will be their low stick after Tuft graduates? Their current sophomore class doesn’t look to have that. Their top sophomore was only the 22nd fastest freshman or sophomore at the state meet. Their low stick moving forward for each year has been evident in their sophomore year, if not sooner.
There isn’t a single serious person who actually thought they wouldn’t podium at the state meet last year. They had too much with Lucas and Tuft with no programs outside of CDA, Boise and Mountain View returning enough to dethrone them.
It does look a bit more realistic with them returning 15:43, 15:59, 16:39, 17:06, 17:19, 17:19, and 17:25 on the Firman course. They were returning 15:28, 16:00, 16:36, 16:38, 16:58, 17:21, 17:32 last year and that’s with Goggins NOT counted. The 15:43 and 15:59 are graduating out after this 2025. Their top 5 returning average is 4th best heading into next year because Skyline is actually slightly faster out of a lower classification. Boise, Mountain View and Highland are all less than 10 seconds back on average time.
It’s not a silly take. It’s the correct take that Rocky is less loaded, they don’t look to have a low stick after this year, and the rest of Idaho is getting better.
Which kid will be their low stick after Tuft graduates? Their current sophomore class doesn’t look to have that. Their top sophomore was only the 22nd fastest freshman or sophomore at the state meet. Their low stick moving forward for each year has been evident in their sophomore year, if not sooner.
There isn’t a single serious person who actually thought they wouldn’t podium at the state meet last year. They had too much with Lucas and Tuft with no programs outside of CDA, Boise and Mountain View returning enough to dethrone them.
It does look a bit more realistic with them returning 15:43, 15:59, 16:39, 17:06, 17:19, 17:19, and 17:25 on the Firman course. They were returning 15:28, 16:00, 16:36, 16:38, 16:58, 17:21, 17:32 last year and that’s with Goggins NOT counted. The 15:43 and 15:59 are graduating out after this 2025. Their top 5 returning average is 4th best heading into next year because Skyline is actually slightly faster out of a lower classification. Boise, Mountain View and Highland are all less than 10 seconds back on average time.
It’s not a silly take. It’s the correct take that Rocky is less loaded, they don’t look to have a low stick after this year, and the rest of Idaho is getting better.
A low stick after 2025*
Fun fact: RM has never finished the season higher or lower than their ranking in top 5 average returners on the Firman course outside of 2018 to 2019 and 2021 to 2022, which comes with the caveat that Hunter Hill transferred in and there was no Firman that year, so Cody Lucas never ran the course. 2018 to 2019 they lost to a bunch of teams they were faster than the previous year.
If a team’s returners averaged faster than Rocky the previous year, they lost to the other team. If they averaged slower than Rocky, Rocky beat them.
Crater went to the Clovis Invitational this year. Anyone think that more non-CA teams should go to that to make their resume look better for an at large?
Because Clovis is in October and I don’t think the committee takes the September meets very seriously
Crater went to the Clovis Invitational this year. Anyone think that more non-CA teams should go to that to make their resume look better for an at large?
Because Clovis is in October and I don’t think the committee takes the September meets very seriously
Yes. Or go out of region in late September or early October.
Nike XC Town Twilight, Griak, Chili Pepper, and Great American would be relatively easy meets for a lot of the schools to try to hit. The midwest and heartland schools, California, NW and SW, and South and Southeast schools see each other plenty, so it would make sense for schools that want at larges to go seek out competition from other regions that aren't commonly seen.
I do think that if Rocky Mountain goes to something like XC Town Twilight and wins, they are into NXN. I say Rocky Mountain because there's always a lot of conjecture about what they need to do to get in.
Crater went to the Clovis Invitational this year. Anyone think that more non-CA teams should go to that to make their resume look better for an at large?
Because Clovis is in October and I don’t think the committee takes the September meets very seriously
Yes. Or go out of region in late September or early October.
Nike XC Town Twilight, Griak, Chili Pepper, and Great American would be relatively easy meets for a lot of the schools to try to hit. The midwest and heartland schools, California, NW and SW, and South and Southeast schools see each other plenty, so it would make sense for schools that want at larges to go seek out competition from other regions that aren't commonly seen.
I do think that if Rocky Mountain goes to something like XC Town Twilight and wins, they are into NXN. I say Rocky Mountain because there's always a lot of conjecture about what they need to do to get in.
Come run Liberty Bell in Colorado. Guaranteed to face national caliber teams.
Yes. Or go out of region in late September or early October.
Nike XC Town Twilight, Griak, Chili Pepper, and Great American would be relatively easy meets for a lot of the schools to try to hit. The midwest and heartland schools, California, NW and SW, and South and Southeast schools see each other plenty, so it would make sense for schools that want at larges to go seek out competition from other regions that aren't commonly seen.
I do think that if Rocky Mountain goes to something like XC Town Twilight and wins, they are into NXN. I say Rocky Mountain because there's always a lot of conjecture about what they need to do to get in.
Come run Liberty Bell in Colorado. Guaranteed to face national caliber teams.
It's too early for the committee to weigh it. Late September to early October through the end of the season is the trajectory they pay attention to.
Come run Liberty Bell in Colorado. Guaranteed to face national caliber teams.
It's too early for the committee to weigh it. Late September to early October through the end of the season is the trajectory they pay attention to.
The committee pays more attention to state and nxr more than anything else. They start their look a week after woodbridge. So if you go to woodbridge, but don't perform well, it's not going to hurt your chances.
It's too early for the committee to weigh it. Late September to early October through the end of the season is the trajectory they pay attention to.
The committee pays more attention to state and nxr more than anything else. They start their look a week after woodbridge. So if you go to woodbridge, but don't perform well, it's not going to hurt your chances.
Liberty Bell was before Woodbridge this year.
3rd at Firman, win at Nike XC Town Twilight, 2nd at state to NXR NW Champ, 3rd at NXR NW is a pretty good trajectory that looks like the team is getting steadily better.
I think the mistake a lot of teams are making right now is running one big meet the first week that they start paying attention or the week after and then only running the state meet and NXR. I don't think this is a Rocky Mountain only issue.
Realistcally with the current national stage it would be nearly impossible for a midwest boys team to claim a at large spot even if they were to win Nike XC Twilight whose winer got 4th at NXR midwest and had no really competitive teams. Roy Griak is really only comprised of Heartland which is not too great of a region. For example Plainfield North guys were nationally ranked top 20 almost the whole year who had their #3 and #5 sick and fell to 3rd at their NXR missed out on getting an at large bid. Even if Plainfield went to Nike twilight it would be less competitive to them since they could stay in state and race against Downers Grove North. What do you think it would take for midwest guys and girls to gain more recognition because they do not have the luxury of good meets like California does. Especially last year with Plainfield South guys and Barrington girls who both good teams nationally