Gordon’s reasoning makes sense. Even with a 12 second phenomenal spread for NM women, it’s not as meaningful without a strong low stick (like they had in their winning years with Kelati, etc.).
However, I do think it’ll be a lot closer than 60 points between 1st and 2nd team (based on what we’ve actually seen thus far).
Samree Dishon said in a runnerspace interview after Nutty that they may have 3 runners in the top 10 by nationals
OSU has no chance! Literally zero! 5th will be like 100 to 150 and 4th will be 45 to 80!
95 % chance NM and or NCS combined score is less than OSUs 5th
State 70%, NM 25%, AL 5%, OSU 0%!
Besides I was looking at the margin of victory between different runners and different races so far this year and cook and roe so far haven't done anything that impressive. Their average margin of victory of 15 seconds against the rest of the best in jamboree, was like 35 seconds for chmiel and ttuohy at nuttycombe against the same runners!
And their third is not guaranteed to be top 20 or even 30
I can see OSU scoring something like 7, 12, 40, 65, 125
OSU has no chance! Literally zero! 5th will be like 100 to 150 and 4th will be 45 to 80!
95 % chance NM and or NCS combined score is less than OSUs 5th
State 70%, NM 25%, AL 5%, OSU 0%!
Besides I was looking at the margin of victory between different runners and different races so far this year and cook and roe so far haven't done anything that impressive. Their average margin of victory of 15 seconds against the rest of the best in jamboree, was like 35 seconds for chmiel and ttuohy at nuttycombe against the same runners!
And their third is not guaranteed to be top 20 or even 30
I can see OSU scoring something like 7, 12, 40, 65, 125
Agree their 5th is questionable.
I think they will be a lot faster come nationals. Roe ran about 15 seconds faster at the last champs on that course, for 2nd. I would bet Cook and Roe will be at least top 10. Probably one of them (if not both) go top 5. They are on their home course. Who do you have ahead of them?
OSU has no chance! Literally zero! 5th will be like 100 to 150 and 4th will be 45 to 80!
95 % chance NM and or NCS combined score is less than OSUs 5th
State 70%, NM 25%, AL 5%, OSU 0%!
Besides I was looking at the margin of victory between different runners and different races so far this year and cook and roe so far haven't done anything that impressive. Their average margin of victory of 15 seconds against the rest of the best in jamboree, was like 35 seconds for chmiel and ttuohy at nuttycombe against the same runners!
And their third is not guaranteed to be top 20 or even 30
I can see OSU scoring something like 7, 12, 40, 65, 125
Agree their 5th is questionable.
I think they will be a lot faster come nationals. Roe ran about 15 seconds faster at the last champs on that course, for 2nd. I would bet Cook and Roe will be at least top 10. Probably one of them (if not both) go top 5. They are on their home course. Who do you have ahead of them?
I was comparing some races and I just noticed that girls they beat by like 10 to 15 seconds were like, 30 40 and even 50 seconds off the pace at nutty!
And then the fact that they scratched from their last meet! I mean that can be a good strategy but also it looked like they really went all out their first race, compared to other runners running more controlled efforts
Tuohy valby, 2 bama runners, chmiel, McCabe, few surprises...
But the main thing is there four and five runners are weak
If Billa is running faster than Cook, how fast is Cook going to be on that course?
I know right, AND Roe! I was surprised when I saw they had a 3rd runner that ran FASTER than them, without them there. Put them in the mix and that’s a massive top-3 amount of firepower. AND, that’s not even counting Hentemann. They’re better than I thought pre-season.
If Billa is running faster than Cook, how fast is Cook going to be on that course?
I know right, AND Roe! I was surprised when I saw they had a 3rd runner that ran FASTER than them, without them there. Put them in the mix and that’s a massive top-3 amount of firepower. AND, that’s not even counting Hentemann. They’re better than I thought pre-season.
I honestly expect this to be a close race between NC and NM. If NC is healthy with their top 5, I don't see them losing. NM is so consistent though that any mistakes will make this an extremely tight 1/2 finish. I believe AL is 3 and OSU fourth. The 5th for each simply takes them out of contention.
I know right, AND Roe! I was surprised when I saw they had a 3rd runner that ran FASTER than them, without them there. Put them in the mix and that’s a massive top-3 amount of firepower. AND, that’s not even counting Hentemann. They’re better than I thought pre-season.
I think the race is going to be fast.
I think Parker Valby will make it fast. The question is how many go with her. Could she pull a semi Kiptoo (and Tuohy/Chelangat a Mantz/Wildschutt)? The team race will be contested between the NM pack and NC State 3-5 and I think NC State would be smart to run it that way. I can see Valby going out in 9:45 for 1st 3K which would hurt a lot of people in this field late in the race.
I honestly expect this to be a close race between NC and NM. If NC is healthy with their top 5, I don't see them losing. NM is so consistent though that any mistakes will make this an extremely tight 1/2 finish. I believe AL is 3 and OSU fourth. The 5th for each simply takes them out of contention.
This is what many are forgetting. All these teams have shown thus far is a 50+ second 1-5 spread. NC State has been in that area for both race, but really only running 1-4 and then 6. With top 5 will be more like 30-35. NM much lower, but top is slower (20 sec at Nuttycombe). AL also seems to have a slight advantage over OSU at 4. But NM and NC St can put in 5 before the 4th of OSU or AL.
I think Parker Valby will make it fast. The question is how many go with her. Could she pull a semi Kiptoo (and Tuohy/Chelangat a Mantz/Wildschutt)? The team race will be contested between the NM pack and NC State 3-5 and I think NC State would be smart to run it that way. I can see Valby going out in 9:45 for 1st 3K which would hurt a lot of people in this field late in the race.
I think she will take it out fast to try and build a early lead and/or probably kick earlier at 4k too. That is what she did at Barrio. I looked at her splits from barrio and she kicked 2:56/km at 4k and then slowed way way down at the end.
I wonder if Tuohy and the other top runners from AL/OSU will be instructed to pack run, or will go with Valby.
Nobody is going with Valby. Tuohy fans will claim that Tuohy lost because she is a team player.
Valby only seems to have one tactic - to the front. Will be interesting to see if what she does vs Chelangat in SEC and South Regional. Those will be very different courses than Stillwater though. In early 2021 there was a pretty big pack thru 3K at 10:00 or so, but then Orton put the pressure on, and they hit the hill at 3500 and things started stringing out quickly.
Nobody is going with Valby. Tuohy fans will claim that Tuohy lost because she is a team player.
My question was about ALL the runners who are potential title contenders for team and individual (cook, roe, chelangat, tuohy, etc)
It's about strategy to win the Team title. Henes and other title contender team coaches may tell the teams to pack run to a certain point in the race. This is pretty common in XC. Valby will be running solo to get the individ title only.
My question is - what will be the strategy for these teams? Will they tell their low low sticks to pack run or chase the lead?
Oklahoma State course is a joy to run on. The footing is perfect. There are long flat stretches to go along with some nice hills. The 6k really has 2 large hills but otherwise is very fast.
Nobody is going with Valby. Tuohy fans will claim that Tuohy lost because she is a team player.
Valby only seems to have one tactic - to the front. Will be interesting to see if what she does vs Chelangat in SEC and South Regional. Those will be very different courses than Stillwater though. In early 2021 there was a pretty big pack thru 3K at 10:00 or so, but then Orton put the pressure on, and they hit the hill at 3500 and things started stringing out quickly.
How well can Valby run hills? Not a lot of hills in FL.
Valby only seems to have one tactic - to the front. Will be interesting to see if what she does vs Chelangat in SEC and South Regional. Those will be very different courses than Stillwater though. In early 2021 there was a pretty big pack thru 3K at 10:00 or so, but then Orton put the pressure on, and they hit the hill at 3500 and things started stringing out quickly.
Yeah it will be good yo see that. Imho, Valby will do the same strategy as barrio.
Also, I am not sure Chelangat is 100% on this season, or maybe she is just slowly getting started. As good as her teammates are, I was very surprised they beat her at the last race.
Nobody is going with Valby. She will be out in front followed by a pack of 30 runners which will include the top 5 from NC State and New Mexico as well as the big 3 from several other teams.